In many posts, I've praised the investment style in David Swenson's book, "Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment". I have used a version of that style for over 2o years in my pension, IRA/401K and other very long term investments that I call the Krypto Fund. See my blog post of February 10, 2007 for specifics. Hmmm re-reading my allocations then, I see my "adjustment" in August 2007 in selling my TIPs and buying stocks cost me money - waiting for the mechanical timing signals would have out-performed my brain. That's quite common. I really need to keep my discipline.
So that's why I'm writing about gold & silver. I had about 10% of my Krypto Fund in gold, silver and a gold mutual fund [at Vanguard]. That's quite a lot of money and the amounts of physical gold and silver is a lot - filing many large safe deposit boxes. But lo and behold, recently the gold & silver asset class grew to about 14% of the total value in the Krypto Fund as the prices of gold & silver rose while most stocks declined. I've posted here quite often in the past few weeks that I've been selling gold as its price got to within 10% of $1000, which was a long term initial target for me.
I could say that respect for the trading gods caused me to sell, but I can also say that the mechanical asset allocation formula in my Krypto Fund also mandated sales. And it still does. Gold & silver are still overweighted at about 12%. So now with silver within 10% of my initial long term target of $20/oz, I plan to sell some silver on Friday.
By the way, gold and silver are sold in troy ounces. 1 troy ounce is 31 grams, so an avoirdupois pound [that's the common pound] has about 14.6 troy ounces, vs. 16 normal ounces. Hence, a 200 pound man's weight is worth about $2.8 million in gold or $55,500 in silver, using $950/oz. for golds and $19/oz. in silver.
PS: I'm buying stocks with the money from the sales: US, Europe, Pacific, Emerging Markets index funds and REIT index funds - whichever asset classes are below target.
Words of the Day - some "W" words today.
"Wan" - adjective [$10] - pronounced "wawn" as in "won ton"
"Wan" means suggestive of poor health: sickly, pallid.
Sentence: Hillary's wan campaign might die the evening of May 4.
"Weal" - noun [$10]
"Weal means 1. (literary) welfare, prosperity; good fortune; 2. (common) a raised or reddened area of skin usually accompanied by itching.
Sentence: The public weal will suffer immensely if Hillary is elected President and institutes her corrupt and socialist governmental policies.
"Whither" - adjective and conjunction [$10]
"Whither" means [adj.] 1. to what place, position or state; 2. (preceeded by a place) to which (the house whither we were walking); [conjunction] 1. to the or any place to which (go whither you will); 2. and thither (we saw a house, whither we walked).
Sentence: Whither go the markets ? [meaning 1. under adjective]
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Dear Sal,
My favorite part of working on my mom's campaign is talking to people one-on-one about why they should vote for her. We can use all the help we can get to tell people about why my mom is the leader we all need! There are two great ways for you to help us all win on March 4:
1. We need as many people on the ground in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont as we can get.
If you can travel to any of these states to volunteer March 1-4, you can make a huge difference for my mom's campaign. And take my word for it -- there is no more exciting place to be than on the campaign trail right now!
Please click here to sign up to travel to a March 4 state.
2. We need you on the phones, making calls right from your own home.
Earlier this month, I asked our online community to commit to making a million calls. We blew right past that goal, making record numbers of calls into key states. First, congratulations everyone and thank you!! Second, let's keep it going and try to make more than 1.5 million calls this week!
Please click here to make phone calls from your own home on my mom's behalf.
I've been doing everything I can to help, criss-crossing the primary states, talking to thousands of people. And you know my mom is working her heart out. I'm so proud of the way she keeps fighting every day for what she believes in and for the America she knows we can be.
Thanks for doing everything you are doing,
Chelsea
i can't say no to chelsea
sent hillary another $250
(i'm up to 1k or 1250 now....will have to double check....in any event still a ways to go to 2300)
PS.....if she wins BOTH texas and ohio .....i will make her another contribution
i think the market is headed upwards next couple weeks
ABK bailout is comin and it is becoming increasingly clear that both ABK and MBI will not be allowed to fail
as Oman's post yesterday asked "what happens if we get good news?"
i think S and P 1440 happens
"My favorite part of owrking on my mom's campaign ... " arghhhhh where's my barf bag ;-)
two closes over 1400 S&P will make a higher low, and higher high pattern & scare bears.
hmmm if McCain uses public financing for the general election, I won't be able to give him more $$$.
btw, Abud, since Hillary is your cousin, that makes Chelsea your first cousin, once removed.
Saw an article in the WSJ about possible hedge fund manipulation of a derivative index on commercial mortgage backed securities ... nahhh
I think at some time ther will be a big scandal about hedge fund and the Street maniupulating all those derivative indices. I think unles it's exchange traded derivative like oil futures, that those are shams.
is it 1920s type manipulation?
the problem with the Oman is when he sticks to fact and reasoning....he makes sense
but when he starts whinin and cryin like a baby about hedge fund conspiracy manipulation theories.....well.......i'll be polite......nonsense
i hope y'all figured that out
Chelsea Clinton lmaoooooooooooooooooo....a crusader for the common man indeed....
Ray Rice is a first round pick...
Fidelity has 9.9B in outflows from stock mutual funds in january.....a record
isn't Fidelity a 'real buyer'?
lol Abud, they can also be a real seller. I don't think I claimed many real buyers in Jan, except at low.
As spin said, "telic selling" most of the month.
Bud the bully bull...all jaked up after receiving a fake email from hildog's pup...likes cooper, but thinks he and bunky are insane ie stocks don't move, they are moved...it is obvious Bud is an emotional wreck right now so piling out would be cruel...I would just like to see him get some help.
Dear Bud
Hope you enjoy the car you bought from me. Had some great times as Im sure you will.
Jon Voight
Jon Voight the actor? or the dentist? LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Bud...you may want to brush me back next time before serving up the cheese...first inning, first at bat, gone.
Abud, maybe you should ask for a signed photo of Chelsea. I think Big John sent me one when I gave him my rich man's vote last summer.
$4 copper a chip shot from here...
what recession?
and here i thought bud just like hildog, even though she is trashing people colored brown, with her muslim mailer on obama.
mccain lost some mo yesterday with that freak who introduced him. kept spewing barrack hussein obama. to be polite, that got shud have his nutz cut off and bleed to death!
BUD IS JUST TRYING TO BANG CHELSEA!
imvho
"i know sometimes i spell jerry with a G"
ROFL!
The United States economy is already in recession and is set for a further slowdown with the dollar expected to remain under pressure, investment guru Jim Rogers said on Monday.
Last week the U.S. central bank sharply lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2008 and said it was worried the economy could face further setbacks even after a series of aggressive interest rate cuts.
"The U.S. is in recession," Rogers told reporters on a visit to Dublin. "It is going to get worse."
Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire George Soros in the 1970s, said the housing and automobile sectors were in a situation "worse than recession" with soaring energy and food prices hitting consumer spending
BUD THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED LIE
Clinton denied knowledge of a photograph of Obama wearing Somali tribal garb that was provided to the Drudge Report Web site Monday. Matt Drudge wrote that the photo was leaked to him by the Clinton campaign in what Obama called an effort to reinforce false notions that he is either foreign-born or a Muslim.
The picture was taken during a 2006 visit to Africa by the senator. It is common for political leaders to be given gifts and asked to wear traditional garb on such trips.
Clinton denied any knowledge of the photo coming from one of her staff.
"So far as I know, it did not," she said. "That's not the kind of behavior that I condone or expect from the people working in my campaign."
Obama, a senator from Illinois, said he believes her.
OBAMA TAKING THE HIGH ROAD AGAIN!
how did these mailers go out, if hildog didnt know about it?
what a joke that bitch is!
Dear Bud
Would you like to come over for game night?
Pat Sajak
With a week to go until the Texas and Ohio primaries, stressed Clinton staffers circulated a photo over the weekend of a "dressed" Barack Obama.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe quickly accused the Clinton campaign Monday of 'shameful offensive fear-mongering' for circulating the snap.
Clinton campaign manager Maggie Williams responds: "If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed."
A NEW LOW FOR DC, EVEN FOR A CLINTON!
sick, disgusting.
you guys are piling on now...you are treating Bud like a Vick pitbull...I may need to come to his defense.
I protest the inclusion of "whither" as a $10 word...that is $5 at best...Harvard...pffttt
Why beef about any photo of Obama? US politics has been dirty for 200+ years. Heck, Jefferson played dirty games on Washingon in his second term.
If Obama can't take it, he's a wimp.
spin and frosty........or shud i say.....siegried and roy ????
hey, if I have to look it up to get a precise defintion and usage, it's a $10 word.
Besides, I've used it a lot in the blog, so you're just used to it.
hither, thither, whither, hence, thence, whence - all $10 words.
btw, some of my $10 words date to when I was 16 in high school trying to improve my vocabulary.
How many X/Y/Zers know the meaning of "whither" - they might think it's a ball game with a plastic ball & bat.
i agree with the Oman 10000000%
campaigns are cleaner than they have ever been....and they keep gettin cleaner
jefferson v adams in 1800 -04 election........i know Oman knows .......
or andrew jackson......both his elections were nasty
or al smith when he ran in the 1920s
we have alot of cry babies in the media today........lots of wimps
mccain better rally his troops and make it real clear that novemeber is about ideas not the fact baracks middle name is hussein.
that was just as disgusting as what hildog did.
and the funny thing, these moves r out of the old playbook.
um, HELLO, the old playbook just costs u votes, and get obama closer and closer to being prez.
hiliary is too retarded to notice that her campaign began to implode once she started bring bill out.
the old school sickens most americans and we r ready for "CHANGE"
osmama bin laden and al qaeda are tryin to kill americans.......i want my president to be tuff
PS....to his credit Obama is not whinin.......but some of his supporters and the media are cryin like little pussies.....sort of like our punk ass bitch....you know....like frosty
unless u know u r a dem or repub, which the avg american is figuring out, niether have thier best interests at heart.
they ploys dont work anymore.
obama has run a clean campaign, and has gone from a long shot, to a shoe in for the left ticket. pretty much becuase he aint using the old playbook.
maybe after 225 yrs and change of dirty politics the ameris r just so disgusted by it, it dont work.
i think hildog can attest to that. she has lost 31 of 38 primaries/cacucus's. she was a 20 pt leader before the first primary. the only segment where her popularity has not been eroded by obama is women over the age of 65. they clearly just want a women and made up thier minds moons ago. everyone else is turned off by her dirty trix, and it cost her, she is done!
mccain better notice, becuase if he goes down that road, it wont be close.
the KKK was very active in american politics after the civil war........ ulysses grant or teddy roosevelt never whined and cried ......they dealt with it......if you can't handle politics....don't run for president
PS.....more i read about TR....uh....more i like him
Ben been workin out? he looks tight
um bud, obama took the high and said he believed hildog had nothing to do with the mailer.
he was lying, but took the high road.
that is what got him on his steamroll over your girl or whatever it is.
the avg man/women r soooooo tired of DC. the spins and lies. whoever runs the cleaner campaign will take november. MARK MY WORDS. the non ivy leaguers of the country r over it. they want the truth, not a bunch of BS.
how else can u explain obama rise? he hasnt layed out an agenda. we dont know where he stands on very much, yet he just crushed "the lock" "the invetiable" Biliary.
i wasnt around in 60, but isnt this how kennedy came out of no where and won it all?
i love it bud. u defend hildog by saying everyone does it.
bush wakes up with an 8 ball, maybe we shud all do that!
LMAOOOOOOOOOOO
they bought FNM off horrendous earnings
Oman may be right? is all the bad news priced in?
y dont u just email chelsea and ask her how much for lap around her track. probably cheaper than another 250.
lol!
at least she went to stanford, which suggests she is probably a bit more creative in the sack than mommy.
they took the caps off FNM and FRE
that's good news for the housing market
we have rallied over 1k from the low, in a month.
bear market rallies r fast and vicious.
i dont think oil is going lower, and t boone gonna get squeezed.
the stagflation chatter will really pick up after this squeeze is over.
sound about right, frosty?
i think ben has dyed his beard to look older and wiser.
bill did that, too. but is was his head.
Ben was seen last week running up a steep hill with a log on his back...yelling something about Greenspan...rumor only
Hillary is used to a sycophantic press - since she's not getting it, it throws off her campaign moves.
lmaoooooooooooooooo steep hill
i think jerry rice used to do that too
There was no question that this is an election season as Chris Rock hit Philadelphia last night for the first of three performances at the Academy of Music.
He kicked off the show with his own comedy caucus, detailing the abundant lies that are part and parcel of the process. Then he tore into each of the candidates in turn.
McCain: "How you gonna make decisions about the future if you ain't gonna be here?"
Clinton: "I think America is ready for a woman president but does it have to be that woman?"
Obama: "He doesn't let his blackness sneak up on you. You hear 'Barack Obabma' you expect one of the Commodores to come through."
boy santelli and haines better shut up, they r making way too much sense!
bud that was stallone training in rocky IV.
how else u gonna beat a juicer?
after being bearish for the past month, revy and jimmy r getting bullish.
rut oh
TLT testing 90 again...FNM, upping limits should keep pressure on the long end as the liars, cheaters and crooks get their bail out...thinking about moving to China to take advantage of their comparable free markets.
Cunningham also disputed McCain's contention that the two had never met, saying he has met the senator twice.
"But I'm not going to meet him again. I've had it up to here with John McCain. I'm joining Ann Coulter in supporting Hillary Rodham Clinton," he said
there u go bud. two more for hildog. a rush wannabe and ann coulter. man hiliary is just attracting the gud ones!
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
men's room stalls in china quite a bit smaller...........frosty gonna have to adjust his wide stance.....or perhaps......he'll enjoy them more???
FNM 28.75...feel even more dirty than when I bought MBI on friday...pinko fag move indeed.
FNM near 30 has trade 20k already today....5x prior open interest...added more...nuts in the vise indeed.
u r a virtual slut, frosty
;-)
FNM conf call at 1:00 est...will jump on...this should be good.
let me know if anything is say that is very interesting on FNM call, frosty.
i am moving a yard of lava rocks in the front yard, and pressure washing the back of my home.
then i got pussy practice tonite.
playoffs on sunday. then its off to philly, then "the valley"
seems like a very quiet day ... maybe I shold take a nap
just 1100 off the lows and revy and jimmy r now bullish.
next 500 handles to the downside, imo
A 9-year-old Australian girl has been banned from playing tennis at her local club over the noise she makes while competing.
The Herald Sun of Melbourne, Australia, reported that Lauryn Edwards was told last weekend that she could no longer play after an opposing player complained about her grunting
just when u think hildog go steep no lower, shes gonna be on mad money.
so jjc likes her, ann coulter and the rush limbaugh wannabe.
bud u sure can pick em!
thats hot! mfl
lol
Boca Fl.-Police have arrested twins for allegedly breaking into area businesses through rooftop holes. Turns out, they had second careers - hardcore gay-porn stars.
bud i dint know u had a twin?
FNM call interesting...key points, my take.
net ineterest margins +58 bps q4 vs q3, direction up.
they are obviously operating under a regulatory consent order...they are in compliance with all 81 items.
capital is 13 billion over the present 30% requirement within the order noted above. my take is that requirement will ease as margins improve.
rifi and work out plans will move forward at full steam in 08' further taking pressure of capital and forclosure cost.
jumbo's in high cost msa's should trade under a seperate struture which is key to evaluating their performance...a good book of business with above arverage margins.
Bottom line...the bear case took a big hit today...FNM will survive, even if housing should decline another 20% through 09'...anything better and Bunkermans thesis that they have over shot seems more reasonable.
In the near term there is no need to raise further capital and minimum captial requirements are bound to head south.
well...it is a bull market in commodities...why not bring on one of the greatest futures traders of all time re Hillary?
A Rite Aid at Front Street and Snyder Avenue was burglarized in a similar fashion the previous day. On Feb. 8, Taleon Goffney is alleged to have committed similar burglaries at Wawas in Nether Providence and Wallingford, Delaware County, according to police.
Chief Richard Slifer of Nether Providence said cash, cigarettes and condoms had been among the items taken.
oh man, that wawa is the only business in wallingford. i used to walk there after school my i was like 10-15.
that is hilarious!
hildog not 1 losing trader ever, in the futs market.
nah, she isnt a crook.
imagine it, if she wins, jimmy mite be the treasury secretary.
her commodities broker can run the fed.
looking gud bud!
frosty......no one cares what your 'take' is
long ass post
sheeeeeesh
just one more FNM thought...if this market shows any up tick at all, FNM will rip...this jumbo cherry picking is a gift...no liars or cheaters need apply.
thx for the FNM update frosty
ok Bud, I hear ya'...what about this...look at the volume in FNM today...those are real buyers.
Dear Sal,
This is a hard-fought campaign. You and I both know it. And now the Obama campaign has upped the stakes again.
Thanks to your contribution, in just 24 hours, you helped close the $1.3 million advertising gap with Obama this week. In response, their campaign has bought another $1.9 million worth of airtime.
For Hillary to win on March 4, we must close this gap -- and we have to do it quickly. We cannot let this race be decided by Obama's spending advantage on the air.
Help Hillary make up the $1.9 million spending gap in 24 hours with your contribution today.
The ads we put on the air matter. The number of phone calls we make matters. The rides we give to the polls matter. And most important of all, what you do right now matters.
We have the best candidate with the best ideas -- and she's a fighter. She's knows that you are standing with her every step of the way.
So let's show the Obama campaign that they can't win this race just by throwing more money at it.
Let's match that $1.9 million ad buy of his and make sure this is a race of ideas, because that's a race that we know Hillary will win.
Contribute now to help us raise $1.9 million in 24 hours.
You've shown Hillary that you are there for her when she needs you, and it means so much to the both of us. Thank you for all you do.
Sincerely,
Bill Clinton
lolololol
frosty swung at a pitch in the dirt
sssstrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiike!!!!!
watching sarah silverman. she was in the bluez and needed to get some gud news. so she went and got an aids test.
first question: have u ever had unprotected sex?
silverman: "is there any other kind?"
2nd question: how many times have u had unprotected sex?
silverman: writes down on a pad of paper
nurse responds, there r 2 #'s here and they r the same.
Silverman: "ya, the first # is for my front. im sorta ocd that way"
ROFL
question 3: "did u ever have a blood transfusion in the 80's?"
silverman: "yes"
nurse: "u had a blood transfusion in the 80's????"
silverman: "oh i thought u said haiti. i dont remember that much i was doing a lot of heroin at the time"
15 questions later
nurse "have u actually been trying to get aids"
LMAO!!!!!!
heres kimmels respone so silverman affair with matt damon.
simply hilarious
http://www.mtv.com/overdrive/?vid=212107
Hi Mark:
The paperwork for the Indian real estate fund is finally ready.
At last, the light at the end of the tunnel.
Almost 20 months and after $250k spent in registration (SEBI & RBI, State of Texas, Indian Comptoller of Currency et al) and lawyer and accountant fees later, we are finally ready.
With the recent correction in the Indian stock markets and resultant cooling in the Indian real estate sector, our timing could not be better.
Please read over the details and let me know what you are thinking.
Cheers
Jay
rofl, he never even said he was sorry for ripping me off for over a yr. sure jay how much u want? 300k maybe 400? SIGN ME UP!
Thanks for the FNM info frosty.
That silverman show sounds hilarious. Gotta try it.
she is single handily saving kimmels show to boot.
and she seems to be getting hotter by the day!
cramer and the hildog on sad money...now that is a pair to draw to...Big John, can you say lock....time to go all in Bunkerman.
maybe ann coulter will join em.
id say that is a bad sign when ann coulter is supporting u, and u r not even a repub.
well she has admitted to going to about 75 dead shows, so maybe she aint all that bad.
i dont know, maher says she is nicer after she has an orgasism. thats on coulter.
hiliary probably never has ever climaxed. im sure slick willy has faked a number of orgasisms becuase he wud rather roll over and rub one out that hammer that for more than a few minutes.
lmaooooooooo mern...
roflmao mern ... what an image !
:-)
buds wet dream a 5 way with slick willy, hildog, janet reno and chelsea.
i can see bud tide to a board, reno putting a lit cigarette out on his nipple and bud screaming "THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!"
Mern...BSC drug test is one thing, if they ever test mental health you are screwed...LMOOOOOOOOOOOO
heeee heeeee
mamasemamasa mumatisa mamasemamasa mumatusa......Where's Blanket...Dont sell Blanket!!!
speaking of the common man. just watching nbc nightly news. they were interview middle class americans and small biz owners.
one women has to drive to work but now takes the bus on the weekends. and she is buying less food becuase of gas. and she aint fat.
another family is keeping thermstat at low temps, wearing sweatshirts to bed with every blanket they can find.
a pizzeria in PA, saying it is almost impossible to turn a profit, becuase they more they raise prices, the less business they do.
and finally a grocery store owner says every delivery comes with fuel surcharge, and people r getting sticker shock from everything to cereal, butter, eggs and milk.
is that stagflation? or is substituting gas for food, just part of the equation?
i dont know which was more stupid. not going full bore in afghanistan, crushing the tailban and finding bin laden. or the ethanol push.
was LBJ really this retarded?
rocket going to jail!
espn saying no way bush pardons rocket. i dont know, what does bush have to lose at this point. he wont be able to show his face at even a rangers game after this yr. he will just sit at home, snort coke, drink dr jack daniels, and convince himself he was the best president ever.
COCAINE IS HELLUVA DRUG! rick james
well, mern ... the problem with NBC and TV news as you knwo, is that they selct interviews to suppor tthe story they want to push. Goebbel-esq.
I'm sure all that is true, but then ... did they ask whether they've dropped some cable TV channels to save money ... or gave up the cell phone and just used the normal, cheap phone ... or decided to actually cook and not eat prepared foods like a lazy slob ... or read a book from the free lilbrary instead of buying a stupid video game ... I could go on and on.
What's wrong with teh bus ? Did anyone every watch a movie from teh 19560s ... heck I took the bus for years when living in Cambridge. And even in NYC working as an investment banker making big $, I took the bus, train and subway, not taxis or my car.
I keep my house at 55F at night and 65F in the day and am admittedly "rich".
Lots of this is just elimination of stupid habitual behavior forced by a bit of reality.
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