That's the Word of the Day - a $100 word meaning "patient endurance of hardship, injuries or offense; forebearance" in reference to animate beings. So who shows longanimity ? That's easy - the long term investor !
We have been enduring endless bear raids, fearmongers, recession mongers, loud mouth pundits, record short sales, pointless Babblevision opinion-itis and all sorts on silly excessive pessimism. Our stocks on average are at prices of early 2006, almost two years ago. The panic of the rich has driven prices of high quality stocks to PE levels almost ludicrous as a time when the 10 year Treasury is near a multigenerational low yield. Risk premiums on moderate grade corporate debt is excessive at a time when defaults are low and earnings for all but the financial sector is growing at solid single and double digit rates.
Fear reigns on Wall Street and the beefers are doing their best to create financial panic.
Patience, grasshopper !
Battleship Ben Bernanke is shelling them heavily and they will either capitulate soon or be reduced to poverty and underperformance via attrition. We just have to survive and wait - hence, longanimity is our code word.
What to do meanwhile ?
Rebalance ! Sell some gold, buy stocks ! Sell some bonds, buy stocks ! Buy stocks with some of that money market fund ! I bought a large amount of Vanguard ETFs yesterday: VPL, VGK, VWO, VTI, and a bit of VNO. I still need to sell a lot of gold, but my stock allocations have beeen topped off. Get those asset allocations to the target levels, now ! Prices are at great long term buy levels.
Hehe, imagine me as Gunny Sgt. R. Lee Ermey of that great show, Mail Call: Shut your pie hole, drop & give me 20 and go rebalance those assets !!!
Word of the Day #2 - "meretricious" adj. [$10]
Golly, this index card from my card file is so old, the handwriting must come from my high school days when I started this file to improve my vocabulary.
"meretricious" means 1) of or relating to a prostitute; 2a) tawdrily or falsely attractive, and 2b) based on pretense or insincerity.
Here's a sentence using definition 2b: Hillary's meretricious campaign continues to hold on as her core base of support in women has not yet realized it is being fooled.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
84 comments:
stock hedge funds lost 4.1% in january.......biggest monthly decline in 7 years.......as being reported by bloomberg
so here's the problem with Oman's huffin and puffin and whinin and cryin about beefers......when they lose money......the market will go down .....and he will lose money
and when hedge funds have a big month ......so will all of us ( assuming long only )
real buyers my ass.....more like real pussies.....no one is buyin stox at these prices
PS......it's no coincidence that january 08 was 1 of the worst months ever in the history of the stock market
hildog, LOL.
yellen says we r probably going into a recession.
oh doctor alan wud never have allowed such honesty to ever be muttered.
doesnt she know she affects consumers psychology.
opps, i forgot, 70% of the country already thinx we there.
stock market probably priced in that the 4th and 1 Q's will contract. if that is it, we have bottomed, imo.
if the recession is longer and deeper than that, well who really knows?
the bubble in housing was longer and deeper than the tech bubble. the tech bubble, imo, was about 100stocks it started in 9/99 and lasted until 3/10/00. that was only about 6 months.
the housing bubble started in 2004 and lasted into late 2006. imo my money was put to work than tech. but we have a great deal of creative destruction in the past 6 months.
again, id say watch corporate spreads. if they start to come in, u know the risk takers r back. and the fins of course. have they unwound most of the horse pucky, they put on since 2004?
probably most of em, but C and MER specifically seem like they cud still announce some pretty large losses going forward. i dont think they have come plently clean.
so i get an email from Hillary last nite.......talkin about how Barack raised 7plus million since super tuesday
she caught me in a good mood........i contributed $250.....my second contribution to her....i still have a ways to go to $2300 max
and i read this morning that she raised $6m since super tuesday.....
wow......democrats really are energized.....bodes well for november
of course all the guys in here think the GOP will romp in the elections......good.....that's just what i want to read
GOP smugness and arrogance......they got their asses kicked in nov06
frosty is still cryin like a little bitch over those elections
well bud. i think jan performance is also a result of beef marking the tape up until the end of the yr.
they wanted 1500 to close the yr, almost got it, but used all thier fire power to get there.
then jan 1, many started to take LT gains. the shorts pressed, the longs stepped away. and SPLAT!
what is the old saying "as jan goes, so does the yr?"
and we have a great deal of uncertainty. who is gonna be the prez? r we r we not in a recession. r S&P earnings estimates for 08 and 09 safe, or r they going lower.
i just feel real confident the $ bounces higher most of this yr, becuase burger king has commercials talking about the $'s free fall.
the lemmings at my watering hole talk about the $ and y gold is great place to hide at 900. every beefer is short the buck and long gold.
bloomberg survey of wall street economists now showin 50% think recession is comin ( or is here)
uh oh
i would say that if that numbers goes over 60%......that will be the end of the recession......so i'll be watchin that closely
i remeber when the number was close to zero and only mern thought US was goin into recession
i want to be ahead of the crowd....not with them in this matter
loooooooooooooool
burger king commercials.......i haven't seen it....i gotta find it
bud im agnostic, and a registered independent after leaving the elephants in 2004.
it is very simple.
obama can and will beat mccain.
hildog can and has 0 shot at beating mccain.
it is not a black thing or a women thing or a mccain. the fact is she is a clinton. the clintons make my skin crawl. never trusted them ever. where is vince foster? how did hildog make so much trading futs? she takes credit for a 10 yr economic expansion that was based on total bs, by the accounting firms. also the structual foundation for that expansion was sown while bush was prez. and then look at the hand the clintons lefts bush #2. a huge bubble crashed (which i may point out was a big reason the budget was balanced becuase of all the ST capital gains of the late 90's). what did the clintons do to stop the insanity? like they had no idea arthur anderson and the rest were not cooking the books, please! also clinton was us just about ready to engage iraq in some way shape or form. ive seen bills speeches from 98-00 and they look like bush wrote em. and she voted for the war, and cant seem to admit it.
she has lied too much since graduating harvard, and if she gets the tix, all her spins will blow up.
obama and mccain (right or wrong) r most consistent with their comments. no double talk.
it doesnt matter, though, Obama has da mo. hildog was supposed to have to ticket sown up by now, and it is a dead heat. she is gonna buckle like the pats did.
bk commercial is funny.
4 lemmings sitting around a cubicle.
"the $ is down again!"
"geesh it practically worthless"
"ya its never coming back"
then they have token at the next cubicle eating a most nutrious lunch of a cheeseburger and fries. he says he got it from BK's new dollar menu.
lemmings retort
"dollar is looking strong!"
is it me or do they always make the white people look stupid these days, on tv. especially white men. i guess since we run the world (yeah right) we r the only u can consistently make fun and not be called a bigot.
from my perch. man r smart and women r smarter.
"thats right, the women r smarter,
thats right, thats right"
ya ive been saying a recession was at hand in the summer of 06. i was early/wrong!
no one ? I keep buying more. Hmmm, am I a Martian ?
Look, If headge funds lose money when the market goes down, why do people incest in them ? That's proof they should all be liquidated. Thanks for the data, Bud. So you should agree with me.
That data is proof there are too many hedge funds and too much money in them. They can't outperfrom any more since they are the market.
So why pay them big fees - indexing al a Krypto Fund does better.
Everybody knows about the sandwich generation. That's us. We have kids in college and aging parents who may need financial help. We - the boomers - are smashed in between, trying to pay for it all and save a little something for our retirement too. No surprise - it isn't going so well. Only about 40% of boomers have managed to save $100,000 or more, and hardly anyone is maxing out a 401(k) plan.
40% of boomers worth less than 100k?
man ive been overly optimistic.
they r so scrwed!
one of the production jobs i turned down. the one that wanted to pitch whole. when they do thier financial plans for people my age they include social security. i asked if when i did my if i cud delete social security. the manager laffed, and said u dont think u will ever see a dime from social security. "NO WAY!" he agreed. boomers will get every dime i put into social security.
no worries, ill never see 62 or whatever it will be
sheesh, Mern. Hillary was a Wellesley graduate and Yale law school. Don't blame Harvard for either Clinton !
its capitalism. beefers dont get to keep money for more than a 2 or 3 qrts of underperformance.
let a free market reign and the excesses take care of themselves.
when we fight mother nature. say like taking fed funds to 1% to fight deflation that never existed, and telling every moron to use an arm to get that killer first home. the backside of that is not pretty is it.
just let the hedge funds die naturally.
frank gretz, gud friend, launched a fund in 1994 and was a rare commodity. by 2002 he was telling me there was a bubble of hedge funds, and he thought it would work itself out sooner or later. just as long as the govt did try to regulate it. well he was 6 yrs early, but if they underperform this entire yr, the money gets yanked.
Phooey ... my spelling really stinks - "why do people incest in them" re hedge funds. :-)
yale, harvard whats the difference?
i went to dayton.
now if she went to mt holy oak, then u cud correct me.
;-)
spelling correctly is for suckers!
Someday people will figure out .... again ... the big money is made long term now. Hedge funds trade too much and just pound each other now. The prime brokers make the vig. And the gov't gets the ST gains, not LT gains.
"Consistently, I've done it," he said in the NFL Network interview, according to The Associated Press. "I haven't done it perfect, but consistently at a high level. I get out of line at times, but what great one doesn't? What great one doesn't get emotional? Find me a great one who hasn't done it like that and I'll be quiet."
so shud the eagles sign this nut?
ok chad here a few names of guys who do it with class, even today.
walter payton, jerry rice, plexico buress, emmitt smith, jim brown, harold carmichael, barry sanders. actually the list is almost endless of guys who do nothing more than hand the ball to the official after a TD
id rather see the eagles sign pacman for return purposes.
i think he has learned his lesson.
lol, sure!
pats need a cornerback ......especially if they lose assante samuel to free agency
i think pacman jones will be a patriot next season
pacman is more toxic than TO.
he can not stay out of trouble.
belichik took a calculated risk on moss.
pacman still a stupid kid. belichik too smart for that.
he is going to get into trouble until he gets bounced by the league forever
Bud looks likes your boy Angelo Mozilo plays off a 16 handicap....but rumor has it he has the short game of a 4 handicapper...
the price of copper sure is firm for the "world is ending" scenario that's priced in.
Bud...so the market is going down...where are we going and when...the market isn't going to attempt to make a stand here...you have any substance to add to that dribble.
Spiddy held 1320 on further bad news yesterday...if we can hold yesterdays lows, perahps we can give it a go into ops expo...TLT ready to take out the uptrend from june 07', a little out of bonds into stocks very possible.
oil acting strong for a being in a recession, too.
Lots of contradictions out there - maybe on both sides.
Bud...he is pissed now, he hates to go down on strikes...likeley off to play pasture pool with his conservative freinds...contradictoins indeed Bunkerman.
Bud is probably worried sick about cousin Hillary ... I hope mern is ready to get over there and console him ;-)
nazz mite have made a double bottom, plus cramer on the record that u cant own any tech.
Bunerkman is there a withholding tax on the PCU dividend? thank you sir...
so frosty how do u really feel? no answering in tongues ( i went to dayton ).
do u think the fins have declared most of thier sins or is this just the 5th inning?
i already the bam thinx its the 1st inning of a new game.
im on the fence.
now doubt like the S&P in the mid 1300's more than i did over 1500!
quick poll
clemems going to jail or not?
im leaning 60 to 40 he is lying, but not as cut and dry, yet, as bonds.
bonds is going to jail
Mern...have consumer defaults peaked, no...have the regulators freaked, yes...is the problem priced in, if the market holds it is...Bunkerman makes a good case, the tape holds the truth.
To determine whether this clemens guy should be going to jail I would first need to know his skin color.
lol, thx
so in laymans terms.
there is more bad news to come, but it may or not be priced in.
if we hold here or go up, that was the bottom.
if we break the lows, this gets a lot worse.
may i be as bold as to ask which way u r leaning. or r u just too much of a slut for it to matter to someone who stopped trading and is looking to put long term capital to work.
tia
ugh ... kerosene for my barn/garage heat 215.5 gallons @ $3.95 = $853.16 ouch. Glad I own much oil stocks.
I don't see a foreign tax paid on on PCU, mfl59, listed on my 1099. So no, I'd say.
speaking of inflation i see volcker is endorsing obama.
that barn needs cobb heat.....give it to the USA farmboys not ahab
cobb fuel is making inflation stay persistently high.
we need Bman to invent water based fusion!
that wud show the bad guys
:-)
Mern....Leaning...I find leaning is the first step toward tipping over...particularly when comsuming frosty malted beverges.
What is long term, what type of time frame.
over a yr
ping me.
im off to run around.
not being high sux.
i have all this energy and motivation. i really dont enjoy it. i prefer being burnt.
thx all
have a great weekend
and smoke it, if u got it. i gave mine away
mern off the herb like Costanza without sex.....has all the answers and is running the world from his couch...lol
hmmm copper to 3.56 now. An obvious, but repetitive, question comes to mind.
lmaoooooooooooooo spin.....Costanza...
is this a recession?
gimme a break frosty
i'm 10 for 14 with 3 grand slams and 23 rbi's this week
i been trottin around the bases 'flap down' ala jeffrey hammond
the market sure is boring without beefer ping pong
Phooey ... this DVD I'm watching for a course on Byzantium is a lot more interesting than this market nonsense, eps Power Lunch bs.
Mern asking me for advice...thought I was the village idiot around here....contradictions indeed.
byzantine...$10 word indeed..."highly complex; intricate"
Frosty I see natural gas printing higher for the 5th day in a row....you locked and loaded there sir?
Hmmm ... a sentence ... Hillary's byzantine fund raising network using the Clinton Foundation defies any investigation into irregularities.
Almost any word can be used in describing Hillary, provided there is a negative connotation in some usages.
I've been having fun for days with those.
Maybe a negative connotation is not necessary for the word.
"Bill and Hillary's Clinton Foundation might be the legal paper latifundium to use for projecting power, and to be used similar to the land-based latifundia [$100] of magnates of Eastern Europe for forays".
I'm not sure about "ingerence" [$1000], though.
Ingerence [$1000] works, too. I miss-remembered the definition.
A government run under Hillary's core principle, viz, she know best for all, would create such ingerence onto the lives and affairs of common people, that no freedom-loving person could accept it.
MLF59...you reading my mind...was just updating notes...UNG moving higher on a steady decrease in volume...has the early nov 07' gappa above at 43 to shot at, but it has the feel of building a trading channel between 35-40...the action appears to be geared toward gaming the crack spread while gas takes a back seat until spring is the rap...what is eric bolling's position?
sheesh this is easy ... even "demoktesis" [$10,000]
A demoktesis where Hillary owns all the shares surely must be Hillary's preferred form of goverment.
:-)))
Hmm "ancorpy" might be tough.
How about this: The Clinton Founddation acts as an ancorpy in the dimension of campaign finance and bribery laws.
:-)))))))))))))))
Is this not the most erudite blog in existence ? ;-)))
i got this thank you email
Dear Sal,
I wish I could find the words to express how grateful I am for the support you have given me. I'm sure you know by now that your support could not have come at a better moment -- I needed your help, and you responded with more enthusiasm and generosity than I could possibly have imagined.
Over the past 48 hours, you exceeded every goal we set. Since the polls closed on Super Tuesday, more than 75,000 of you have contributed to our campaign.
I am genuinely touched by your dedication not just to me and my campaign, but to real change for our country. Something amazing is happening here, and I hope you're as proud to be a part of it as I am.
Thank you so much for all you are doing -- your timing could not be better. I promise you that I will never forget, and that I will carry your voice with me to the White House.
Thank you,
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Bought some more CVX - that's so cheap and they have good properties in the deep water gulf.
Where is that barf bag ... that's sooooooo syrupy !
I can envision tear in her eye as she typed that ... lolol
Arwe you sure you got the correct email, Bud ?
The one you posted wasn't addressed, "My dearest Cousin Bud"
;-)))
An Indiana woman was arrested Wednesday on charges she gave her 11-year-old daughter alcohol and marijuana as a birthday gift, according to reports.
A NYC women was stopped for speeding...her eight month old was on the seat next to her unrestrained, while see used the seatbelt to secure a case of beer...drunk chix are hot.
are family members allowed to give more than $2300 for an election?
if i am her cousin ...can i give her whatever i want?
no, there is no exemption for family members. But she would trust you, her dear cousin, and take cash, I'm sure. Or gold eagles.
You can give another $2300 for the general election.
well i hope i don't have to give her any more money.............i only contribute when my candidate is in 'trouble' or down in the polls
my first contribution to her this year was a couple days after Iowa
if she gets the nomination .....i sure hope she doesn't go down in the polls against Mccain....or i'll go broke
bud did u rub one out, after reading that pathetic bull shit?
u shud pick the lesser of two evils and get on obama wagon now.
he is the lefts only shot in nov.
mccain is a gud pick from the right.
the fact the bible thumpers hate his so much is such a positive. most elephants dont think like rev. they think gay marriage, who cares? fiscally conserative and blow the lazy people into the dust is what the mod right and middle want. mccain and obama offer that.
hildog is a socialist but a rich one. which, again, contradicts her core beliefs. if she were truly a socialist she wud not be able to loan herself 5 mil.
oh and your 250 bucks, im sure, went to paying the vig on the loan. i wonder what she is charging the compaign for "the loan"?
i bet she is making something, and that is sickening!
if i am wrong, my bad!
ah so u admit to being surprised by obama strength?
he has the mo! get on the train now.
ive already put money on obama for nov! just 300 hundred! and it got 2 for 1 odds!
Bud..you putting out MON today?
uh.....not at all surprised by obama strength.......he's a great candidate.....i like him alot
i'm supporting Hillary though....if she wins the nomination....on to the general election..
if Obama wins the nomination......he'll have 100% of my support
i just think it's really amusing how you guys and the media and the punditry are so sure she's gonna lose
millions and millions of americans are very fond of Hillary.....and i am 1 of them
Hillary and Barack each got about 7.5 million votes on super tuesday ....a total of 9million voted on republican side ....that bodes well for dems
and since that loser frosty is backin Mccain....well....enuff said
die GOP die !!!!!
democrats luv both their candidates
republicans hate all of their candidates
john mccain.......lmaooooooooooo
i've never made 1 prediction of the general election....you gusy sayin john maccain is the odds on favorite
i agree............democrats are the undedogs.....i like bein in that position
PS......what's really disgraceful about Frosty....he really hates mccain....but won't admit it now
i just want someone who goes in the first day and says "ok dc, by the end of the month 40% of your jobs r gone. lobbyists get the hell out! AND LETS GET TO IT!"
die IRS die!
mccain winning this fast says one thing.
the revs, the bible thumpers, the rushs r in the distinct miniority. except if u really crazy then hukabee makes sense. the cream is rising. and it is creationist, bigots.
they all need to die, last century!
no frosty.......50dma = 109.65
i'll revisit MON on monday
i do have CF short right about here
actually MON looks like a good darkside
i shorted it
"people still eat during a recession"
lmaooooooooooooooooooooo
Getting close to martini time.
Have a good weekend.
Great stuff this week bunker boys...hope you all enjoy the weekend...cheers.
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