Yesterday was the IBD confirmation day we were waiting for - S&P +1.7% on higher volume, and considering the reversal from the day's lows, the gain was even larger. IBD doesn't say so, complaining that stocks aren't in proper bases with favorable buy points. True, but selection rule are rules. Now one should be in dip buying mode. A confirmed rally does not mean the market will go straight up, but it does greatly increase the odds. Over the next few weeks/months, good stocks will base and create favorable breakout buys, so watch those charts.
I'm now a fundamental long term buyer, so I like to buy the V-type dips and average in. My buying tactics differ from IBD sometimes, but I do still use their cup & handle breakouts from a good base when I see it on a stock I like for other reasons.
I sold more gold yesterday and bought more Vanguard Pacific and Europe ETFs [tickers are VPL and VGK] in my Krypto Fund. This is simple asset allocation at work. It's quite a good example of how this group asset allocation pays off. Gold is way up and with its profits I can buy stocks in groups now depressed. The TIPs & Bond allocation was also way up and I already reallocated a large amount of it.
GOOG was hammered in afterhours trading. I bought some at 515 and put a bid in lower for more. I will try to buy that last slug this morning either in the premarket or on a dip. This great growth stock is cheap as it's been pressured by beefer selling in January. Around 500 you are getting an entire year of earnings growth for free. Year over year earnings growth for the quarter was 39% and its PE is now about 20x on 2009 estimates. Golly, I need to buy a lot more of that stock ! I think it's worth $1000/share.
PS: Year to date as of January 31, Krypto Fund is down 3.05% and Alpha Fund is down 6.8%. Not good start, but I think both are well positioned for the big move up I expect. I still have quite a bit of gold to sell and reallocate to stocks.
PPS: MSFT for YHOO at $31 cash or stock at holder's option ... "bear hug " hostile offer ! Wow !
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
124 comments:
oops god wrote techs epithah on wed. i saw he didnt own YHOO anymore, after yrs of holding.
god is really bullish outside of tech. but he was saying this was the worst tape since 1934, 9 days ago.
man would love a bong hit right about now
DISCIPLINE baby!
MEXICO CITY, Mexico (CNN) -- Hundreds of thousands of farmers clogged central Mexico City Thursday with their slow-moving tractors, protesting the entry of cheap imported corn from the United States and Canada.
The farmers complain that U.S. and Canadian grains are heavily subsidized and therefore undermine Mexican products.
"Corn is too cheap," Garcia said. "For me to make a profit, it has to bring in 15 pesos ($1.4) a kilo, and I can barely get 10."
por que?
our govt is still subsidizing even after corn has gone up what, 300%?
another brilliant move by bush (corn based ethanol push)
Oh doctor!
Just when you thought there was no reason to own tech whatsoever, when everything was slowing and awful, Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) decides to change the game and become the biggest on-line player there is.
This is huge. It is a giant liquidity event and a reminder that there is value that there is a floor in a tech group that has gone from bad to worse this year, from totally un-ownable to ridiculously un-ownable.
Until now.
LMAO!
Market Overview
Video - Premium Content
Cramer: When to Buy Yahoo!
1/30/2008 12:29 PM EST
By Jim Cramer, Farnoosh Torabi
Hear Jim Cramer give his price point for when to buy Yahoo! In the meantime, stick with Google, he says.
ROFL!
YHOO!'s Missteps Make GOOG Look Great
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
1/30/2008 9:37 AM EST
Yahoo!'s (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) so bad, I want to buy Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).
what a guru
Why You Need to Dump Tech
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
1/29/2008 7:04 AM EST
oh mercy
lol, mern re Cramer.
I don't understand the bearishness on GOOG - EPS up 39% Q4 07 to Q4 06; stock PE on 2008 numbers is about 25x.
Gotta buy more !
cheap corn from the US !? $5/bushel is cheap .. sheesh Mexico must subsidieze the heck out of corn tpt buy votes.
Jobs down. Not good.
Revised Dec. up. Revised Nov down.
Unemployment rate down to 4.9%
Fed cuts back on the table.
Odd how ADP which is based on real data, could give such a different picture.
I suspect an upward revision is coming.
is this a recession?
more cuts!!! avoid a recession at all costs...financial engineering 101....that should fire you up Bunkerman....
ROFL, i had to rewind my tv 3 times to listen what hampton said, and i still have no idea what the BLS just did.
am i correct in saying the bls is saying the US economy has lost 260k jobs since last march?
the revivsions are so laughable. i was watching "fear and loathing las vegas" (thought the book was better but jobnny depp was gud). i think the BLS is like depp in that movie. sucking down the ether, popping lsd like chiclets. barely able to stand, and making shit up.
by next month jan will be +50k jobs, the bls just have to dig some more.
the entire BLS shud be fired!
wake me up when elaine chao is on.
she spews more bs than bush.
is there a THC patch or some gum?
this sux!
no, the revisions produced a negative adjustment of 260K
Before the number came out, they mentioned the January number had a huge measurement error.
I think a 2.5% overnight rate is possible now. But that's about it.
main street is in big trouble.......we are losin jobs every week by the thousands.....this will be the worst recession since the great depression
"rich man's panic"
lmaoooooooooooooooooo
The Fed looks dumber and dumber in Oct and Dec.
Keep firing, Battleship Ben ! Save the common man's job.
i still have no idea what the BLS is saying!
ADP is much more accurate, i wud suspect.
imagine that a private company doing a better job than the govt
lol Bud ... I guess you are a bit young to remember 1973-1975 ... or is that a Hillary sound bite ... aka a lie ?
I remember a guy saying ADP had a very high correlation with the "revised" monthly number, so it would indicate an upward revision coming. But, one never knows.
This is still a midcylce slowdown in my humble opinion.
1981-82 was bad, too, until the Reagan tax cuts saved the game and Volcker started easing.
XOM must love this MSFT-YHOO news; it takes the headlines off their profits
that jobs number makes Fed gov Fisher look like a fool
I just learned from a friend that members of the Grateful Dead will perform in support of Obama in San Francisco on Monday night. He mentioned Phil, Bobby and Mickey backed by Phil's band and that the show would be open to the general public.
RUMOR
so that wud be
mount molo and mickey hart on drums (possibly billy k, but doubt it)
bob wierd singing and rythmn guitar
lesh bass
jackie green vocals and lead guitar
steve moltiz on keys
larry campbell from dylans band, i cant see him fitting in with that lineup. 3 is too many guitars. they have tried it before and it clearly did not work, in 2004, imo.
phil is really cranking right now. he just played a show in portland and replayed the set list from extacly 40 yrs ago to the day. i mean they went old school. im hearing heads who dropped out of the scene in the mid 70's r going to these shows. scalpers r getting 500 bucks at the gate.
bud u shud come to alligator alley on 3/9 for the festival. phil is closing it, and im sure it will be a 3 hour marathon of bass bombs, thunderous drums, and whaling guitar licks. he really has put together a unique band. i like this jackie green kid.
man i really hate the fed!
look at what they just did to my savings account.
they really dont want people having money in savings. either invest or spend it, savings is stupid.
what a country!
Bunkerman...being the regulatory market hawk that you are, don't you think if MSFT is to take down YHOO they should divest themselves of the windows operating platform?
seeing the senate passed the military budget. dubya got rid of 4 things before he signed it. all r funny but the last part killed me. the senate allocated money to fund a panel to investigate wasteful spending iraq. bush gave that idea the heisman.
u gotta give bush some credit. he has been one crazy MF since day 1 and he will go out in the blaze glory. next jan i bet he does a line from washington ave to crawford. thats a lot of coke!
BWLD...spinny post a trade here...bank.
hmm ISM over 50 -> expansion.
Uh, frosty ... BAC to your buy point [45] ;-)
"expansion"
loooooooooooooool
the only thing expanding is the recession
no re MSFT-YHOO, built any integration of search into Windows will be forbidden by the DOJ. And EU.
frosty, well, in general I think MSFT should be split up. I was giving my view of what will happen.
don't understand why they are selling GOOG at 500+ ... I've got bids near 500 ... maybe I'll get lucky
Bunkerman....BAC 62 fib retracement from oct high to jan low at 45.want me to take the darkside...if the beefers are coming after it this is the spot...notice the fib retracements in jan for the nasty and spiddy?.....nasty 02' low 1108 10/08 high 2861 to jan low 2202, 38%....spiddy 768-1576-1270, 38%....yep, your right, BAC needs some consolidation, darkside indeed.
Mern...posting fake trades in the bunker...Bunkerman, I want a ruling on that bush leauge crap..dickball indeed sir.
hmm ... can't trade any of the banks until mid Feb. or I'll be stuck with a wash sale loss for decades. Oh well, I guess I really care about what the stocks are at in the fall.
I'm glad it was fake ... I was worried about stagger getting crushed.
But in the future ... uh ... perhaps frosty is right.
i saw mccain standing next to his 95yr old mom last nite......they looked like husband and wife
75 yr old white man.......ya.....the country's gonna vote for him
lmaooooooooooooooooo
frosty ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.
ill just put np at the end of every note, so u know that im not playing.
;-)
np
75 yr old man, a mormon, a bull dyke and muslim walk into a bar..............
lol
rofl mccain and his mother....that was funny...
Bunkerman...that BAC 45 still ticks me off...the fed who you and cramer seem to have fallen in luv with should have....well you know...bastards.
yes, frosty, they suck ... BAC should never have fallen the way it did ... lots of people hurt because of the Fed errors.
the common man sells at the bottom out of fear ... they don't have my bankroll to keep buying more.
That's one reason the uptick rule must be reinstated ;-)
[have a good profit on BAC now; JPM, too; WB small loss; C ugly ... didn't buy more at the low for it]
Not in love with Battleship Ben, but since he's doing my bidding, I have to compliment him on the correctness of his moves :-)
bot more GOOG around 515; put bid in around 500 for more.
W crack team on the job...go to the spurs W, this do nothing congress only knows how to bitch...made me sick during the state of the union speech watching over w's left shoulder at nan's twisted lips...do nothing but cry, indeed.
what's makin frosty sick is GOP prospects in the fall......let's examine his choices
the aforementioned 95yr old grandfather with one arm
or
" i pulled over and cried when my church let in blacks" " iwill get your jobs back in michigan" .....an honest man indeed
frosty's party gonna get sodomized in november.......pass me the jelly
nuthin to do but cry, indeed
looooooooooooooooooool
ISRG interesting..short at day low???
i wonder if mccain can jerk off with his 1 arm?.....oh wait.....he can't get it up no more
mac is back !! mac is back!!!
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooo
Just need to add the hildog to the mix...oh my...the oval office will look like the set of the VIEW...might as well turn the country over to whoppie and bababababwawawwawa.
is the moderator going to allow such blasphemy!!!
4 more years!!!
lolololol
is the moderator going to allow such blasphemy!!!
4 more years!!!
lolololol
will the moderator whip out his huge 45 and insist participants refrain from jack off remarks?
I can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking my head up a bull's ass, but I'd rather take a butcher's word for it.
what?????......loooool
well ....if you like
the president lying to the country and sending GIs to their death in the slaughterhouse called Iraq
and the 'W crack economic' team causing millions of working families to lose their homes in the Bush recession
and the lowlife dirtbag Cheney treating the constitution like toilet paper
then you want 4 more years........frosty on board that train.....they don't care about america
lololol the moderator
he's too busy researchiing about 1920s manipulation
LMAO
the view
spin isnt that "u can get a gud look sticking your head up a butchers ass............."
miss farley
bud making fun of a war heros disability.
a new low, even for bud
no wait.........its your bull.....frrgttt it...IM AN ID---IOT!!!!......lool
what a bunch of whiny cry-babies on this blog
you guys call hillary names all day long
war hero my ass
1 armed impotent granpa loser
die GOP die !!!
I do think the allusions are getting a bit raw. And the language, too. I don't mind a bit, but ...
uh Bud ... are you confusing Dole with McCain re the 1 arm ?
Perhaps you are getting a bit ... dotty ;-)
i thought only Frsoty cried like a lil'bitch here.........i was wrong
Construction spending fell 1.1% in December, twice as much as the consensus forecast. In addition, November's previously reported gain of 0.1% was revised to a decrease of 0.4%.
These weak figures are important, as they are lower than what was assumed in Wednesday's report on fourth-quarter GDP. This means that the 0.6% gain reported for GDP during the quarter will be revised down, probably by two- or three-tenths of a percentage point.
Additional data that will figure prominently in the revision for GDP (due out on Feb. 28) include December data on U.S. trade and business inventories. Any revisions to the already-released report on December retail sales also have the potential for impact.
With today's data in hand, the risk is for GDP to be revised to show a contraction in U.S. growth during the quarter.
like i said, in the 3rd qrt we find out the recession started last yr and will be over before it has been acknowledged. god bless the BLS and all thier lies
spin u r killing me!
Bman i'll be more than happy to clean up my language and call a truce...
but if you guys gonna call Hillary names.....i'm comin back hard ...and nasty
some here have real thin skin
Bunkerman..that TWM is a real looker, one of the best charts I can find...think it fits well with your investment thesis as well...you can always dump it on the bounce and load to your core positions...just thinking about your wash sale comment.
that blurb is from Tony Crescenzi
not confusing mccain with dole
1 of mccains arms is useless courtesy of the hanoi hilton
hmm I'm wrong ... McCain does have an injured arem like Dole. A war wound.
was watching family guy the other nite. the griffins were at a parade for vets. the had a ride called the john mccain experience. for 5 bucks peter was put in a bambo hut and poked with a sharp stick. after about 30 seconds he started crying "i wanna be president"
better than SP? same ball park, different styles. family guy is 5 stars of fun!
“Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for right now, for your sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.”
Bud...woooofffffffff...LMAOOOOOOOO
mccain done more for this country than me or u bud.
all u do is support the GDP of strippers and columbia
rofl spin
rofl spin
ok ill buy from u!
fat guy in a little coat
:-)
frosty, that TWM chart looks like a ... short; ready to break support at 73. Has sort of an H&S top look, too, that measures to 54.
Filling the gap at 76 triggers the H&S top.
Just objectively reading the chart ;-)
honest man vs honest women, hardly...hildog shameless in obscuring her vote for the war....at least edwards made a point of regretting it...of course it dosen't matter to apologists like you and your feminists sisters Bud.
hildogs forgien policy advisers from the ranks of neoliberals who cheered for W to go to war....Sandy Berger played a major role in swinging partirck kennedy's vote for the war, a hildog slim ball...notice teddy went obmamyomama...indeed.
The cherry on the sunday, she attacked obamayomama for ruling out using nukes against bin laden...she's well above her cankles in this mess of a war...please...no one has banked more coin from big defense than hildog...yeah, we should use nukes, one of my supports must build those big rocket type thing-a-ma-gigs.
Bunkerman...IWM sure has the look of those h&s formations that resulted in a couple of break's up and poweful ones, in the spiddy last year...you were a buyer of those :)
Today, I know how don larsen felt in 56'.
GE is breaking the downtrend line up. Look's like one of Cooper's buy signa;s, maybe the "Angular Rule of Four Breaks or something like that.
Sandy Berger ... a pargon of lying ... he stole those NSC documents to hide Bill's incompetence or shady deals after 911.
Ah ... such talent surrounding Hillary, not seen since Al Capone's "Organization"
frosty = william kristol?
keep bashin Hillary guys.......i can't wait for super tuesday
it's gonna be sweet listenin to frosty make piss and moan and make excuses
mern, if Hillary loses on Tuesday, you gotta go to Bud's and take his belt, etc. He'll be ready to end it all ;-)
uh Bud...no kicken' rocks here with a hildog win...man you really are dense...don larsen indeed.
I got that Don Larsen metaphor, frosty hehe :-)
Maybe I should send McCain my general election $ vote now - he looks like a lock.
I wonder if Hillary cries on Tuesday evening ?
dona larsen? huh?
i took you deep a couple times earlier today
lmaooooooooooooooooo
looks like real buyers bought the lows today, too.
sheesh Babblevision making spelling errors in headlines ... how embarrassing !
And I have to count on X-Y-Zers to pay my social security !
Bunkerman...thanks to the W no child left behing program...test scores grades 3-8 are way up acroos the board...quantum leads in english second language scores...there is hope.
C has a Angular Rule of Four break up, too.
that was a good program by W ... but I think Laura the Librarian thought of it ;-)
your right Bunkerman...what was hildog's first flop as first lady...health care reform...that would have been a good joke if she hadn't pushed science back two decades...all she did was crash MRK, hutring the common man and failed...you might be on to something...lovely luara in 09...at least one could watch her on tv without fear of losing one's lunch.
Yes, Laura ia a classy first lady ... unlike the prior one.
I thought the Gary Aldrich book about the Billary's was really good. I bought five copies and gave them to friends.
laura
i bet sleepin with her is like havin sex with a log
she's also a racist bigot pig after what she said about Katrina victims
she's a c*&nt
Bud, maybe you need to find a nice girl & get married
i guess my offer of a truce was rejected.......that's ok
lots of bullets in my holster
huh...what good are bullets in a holster?...you gonna' toss them at bunky while he shanks ya' with the k-bar.
The bullets go into the cartidges that go into the cylinder or magazine and then into the revolver/pistol/rifle.
And ... uh ... Bud ... the "gun" is ... uh ... aka the "short arm" ... you can guess ;-))
sheesh Babblevision is in the pocket of the shorts again. They really are worthless. This guy is just pumping his business.
"in the pocket of the shorts"
that's funny Bman
when the market goes up...cnbc is accused of bein a cheerleader
JPM close over 48 breaks multiple resistance levels.
today i know what dirty harry felt like
poor frosty........he got smoked
make my day
I'm thinking of a gold martini,
Just like the one I had last week;
With ice cold gin
And vodka too
And white lillet with a twist
...
boo-boo-boo
The Golden Kryptonite martini - more than one makes the body numb :-)
Have a good weekend.
LET'S GET READY TO RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMBBBBBLLLLLLLLEE....BUENA SUETE SPINNY...GMEN
GO G-------------------MEN
the points and under
27-24
Enjoy fellas
ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!
hilog?
u elephants shud want biliary in novemeber it does not stand a chance.
the negro muslin does
mern the mush is taking the gmen
rut oh
lmaooooooooo.......mern the mush..pisser indeed
HOLY SHIT!
Deadheads for Obama featuring Bob Weir,Mickey Hart,Phil Lesh & Friends
The Warfield , San Francisco, CA
Mon, Feb 4, 2008 07:30 PM
CONFIRMED!
no billy as predicted by me. how u fit campbell in with wier makes no sense. what they will probably do is turn down bobby's guitar or not even plug it in (they just dont tell him). so he can sing and think his guitar is in the mix, but it wont be, if u know what i mean.
the thing about bob is probably (just via experience) one of the best rhythmn guitarist ever, but it really only works when he tags along with someone like garcia, herring or kimmock. in 2004 they tried haynes, herring and weir and it was a mess.
ALSO THIS IS EXTREMELY POSITIVE FOR A SUMMER TOUR, with billy k!
so this summer im looking for
phil, bob, mickey, billy, plus molitz and jackie green.
RED ROCKS for a week? ANYONE?
that is where the magic happens!
better than any damn religion!
the core 4 r smarter than bud. maybe they like obama more, but practically speaking i think they feel obama can beat mccain. hildog lies too much and has way many skelotens in the closet (maybe even tom cruise) to win a general election.
one thing for sure, obama has secured the drug addict vote!
watched cnn this am on how mitts health care plan is killing a lot of people that believe they r in the middle class. they cant afford the MA plan, so they get fined?
if the country is running on capitalism (which i can debate it is not, since not much is allowed to die.), then we cant have socialized medicine.
do the dems wants socialism or capitalism? socialism sux! right bud?
this event shud give obama cali, imo.
the boyz pushed hard to kerry in 04. i did not care for it, but they were really beating the drum on just voting. in 04 bobby said after the philly show i took todd harrison to. "u better vote in 04 and u better vote for the right guy, or they may not be a 2008"
pass the acid
and whoever thought the gig wud be for free, that was laughable. this is not 1967.
pass the acid!
well i thought about it, and tried to get a tix.
sold out already
doh!
never been to the warfield, been to sf but warfied is gonna be magical on monday
Mickey Hart, Phil Lesh, and Bob Weir, joined by Jackie Greene, John Molo, and Steve Molitz, will play show together in support of Barack Obama.
The video website Iclips will be producing a live simulcast streamed via the Internet on www.iclips.net at approximately 7:30pm PST.
ah i see they learned from 2004. no campbell. so we get to see the interplay between bob and jackie. shud be interesting.
who is gonna sing "gud morning little school girl?"
hard to see bob singing "im a little school boy, too" he is 60. jackie is like 30.
lets play fantasy show
1st set
feel like a stranger (long shot, but apporiate)
golden road to unlimited devotion
bird song
althea
minglewood blues
dark star first verse
stagger lee
viola verse 1
caution
viola verse 2
lovelight sung by bob
2nd set
sugar magnolia
black peter
saint stephen
dark star verse 2
eyes of the world
staint stephen reprise
the 11
help on the way
slipknot
drums/space
uncle johns band
throwing stones
not fade away
encore franklins tower into us blues.
no doubt jackie has learned a lot of songs in the past month. they probably have about 150 songs in the possible rotation. i hope the stream on the net is decent sounding.
they swear this is a one time only event for obama, but if the scalpers r getting over 500 at the gate. well the core 4 r not the richest guys ever, and the all mighty greenback mite mend to of those wounds from 40 yrs of touring.
ya mickey and phil cant stand each other. billy k is happy in haweii, but molo is so insanely gud, so what?
oh by the way, i dont know who to bet on today. but im hoping the eagles mite have won the super bowl 3 yrs ago. wud it shock u? this is how all the big blow ups start. iggle fans r pounding on arlen "the magic bullet theory" specter to get us that ring!
STRIP THE PATS OF THIER RINGS!
we deserve one!
bill walton on the lakers trade
"its fireworks, caliopies and clowns"
lol, he never stops quoting the dead
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