A long week is almost over, and 2009 has just a bit under one month left. Krypto checked her Fund yesterday and as much easy money has been made, Krypto hit the button on the computer to re-allocate. Good doggie ... here's your fee, a fine dog biscuit.
Krypto sold quite a bit of gold (the ETF - GLD), gold stocks, REIT index fund ETF (VNQ), and emerging market ETF (VWO) and the sister index fund. Overall this was about 3.5% of Krypto Fund holdings which were moved to money market funds. All the monies were in retirement accounts, hence no tax affects. TIPS and bonds (except certain municipal bonds) do not seem like good buys to me now, so I'll wait, probably a year until the Fed starts to raise rates. If the stock markets pull back, I can re-buy at lower prices. Patience, grasshopper ....
The speculative 1-2-3 Fund is mostly cash now, too, as all the S&P calls were sold earlier this week as posted. I have some MT stock, MT calls, HBC calls, BA calls and some RIMM, CX and VVUS. I expect a good jobs numbers and will likely take all sugar on all options on any ramp after the number - IF I'm right.
On a push towards S&P 1200, I will look for short plays. My first stop will be any market leaders that fail to make new recovery highs. Second will be whatever sectors I think might be over-extended and ready for a drop. I think the beefers are already distributing stocks like AAPL, GS, etc. They will pull the trigger on all their holdings before year end IF their management fees seem in danger.
I don't expect a big pullback unless something bad happens, like Obama passing his cluster FUBAR health plan. IF that passes, job stagnation will rule for a decade or more.
Yesterday's late selloff had two possible causes: (1) GS put out a negative forecast for this AM's job number to select clients (GS does this the day before the number recently), or (2) general big cap selling by institutions raising funds to buy the BAC offering. Or both.
That BAC offering was something called "Common Equivalent Securities" - CES for short. I suppose they came from some investment banking firm's CESspool. What a bunch of s&^% ! If you want to sell stock, sell stock. Only a fool hasn't learned that complexity is costly and dangerous. Of course, BAC is still run by fools and cads.
Word of the Day
"Desideratum" - noun [$10]
Desideratum means something desired as essential.
Sentence: Strong improvement on the job market is the crucial desideratum for further economic and market advances.
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35 comments:
good morning Bman !!!!!
all i want for xmas is a strong dollar
'probably a year until the Fed starts to raise rates'
a year ??? you know what that means
dollar tankaroooooooooooooooo
lol, you sound like a recording.
All I want for Christmas is job growth, but I'm not going to get it.
from david malpas in wsj today
The irony of the zero-rate policy, coupled with Washington's preference for a weak dollar, is a glut of American capital in Asia (as corporations and investors shun the weakening U.S. currency) and a shortage at home. For gold and oil, the low-rate policy works, weakening the dollar so commodity prices go up and providing traders with ample funds to buy into the expanding bubble. Those markets are almost daring the Fed to try to break out of its zero-rate box.
But for small businesses and new workers, capital rationing is devastating, spelling business failures and painful layoffs. Thousands of start-ups won't launch due to credit shortages, in part because the government and corporations took more credit than they needed (because it was so cheap).
excellent editorial..............so much for the stupid theory that a weak dollar will create jobs in the US.........keep rates at zero..........and capital is fleeing the country
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704007804574573774057713530.html
I wonder if there might be an strong uptick in household formation next year. It's raining marriage announcements among my younger relatives.
Strong household formation is bullish for a 20 year time span.
See the 1950s and 1980s.
was at the grocery store last night............haagen daaz ice cream
those pints last year were 3.79........i paid 4.19 last nite.......CPI my ass
oh wait............they prolly imported.........ya'know............from the dairy farms of wisconsin
good game last nite between the oregon beavers and the oregon state beavers...........sorry frosty...........i know you a beaver fan...........oh wait...............you a man-beaver fan..........never mind
PS.............still think i have you on 'ignore' ?????
Malpas argument doesn't make sense.
Profitability of lending to small business now is huge; superb spreads over cost of money.
have you ever heard of dairy price supports, Bud ?
courtesy of big government ruling classes.
I suppose Haagen Daze has real sugar in it, too.
Antoher kudos to the ruling classes for the sugar import quotas.
Gotta help those sugar plantation owners stay rich.
whoa baby, very strong jobs numbers.
I almost got my Christamas wish.
November Nonfarm Payrolls -11K vs -125K consensus, October revised to -111K from -190K
CORRECTIONH-- September nonfarm payroll revised to -119K from -239K -Update-
Huge positive revisions.
hello dr bernanke
are you listening ????? time to raise rates
dollar fire
no, Ben should wait a few more months.
at job growth of 200K, he can raise.
frosty looks like a lock for the unemployment rate contest.
hmm I suppose it's gloating, BUT my summer forecast for jobs growth by year end might get hit.
a bit of luck, I admit.
At 8:29AM I figured I was wrong.
Bman aren't you the one who claims to have lived thru the 70s and 80s recession ???
wait for 200k ?? huh ??? fine.............then be prepared for doubledigit inflation
actually 20% inflation................as i have proved this week...............we already at 10%
CPI my ass
as per plan, sold all calls & stocks in 1-2-3 fund, except VVUS (a LT position).
This might run further, but ...
Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
will wait a few days to look for shorts.
Plus have plenty of LT longs in Krypto Fund.
Might re-allocate more if this runs to 1150 or 1200.
oh ... BA hit 55 before 45.
frosty passed out from loss of blood from my Kbar.
I will show mercy.
great job Bman !!!!
i love the ping-pong ..........beefer style
How can you sell now Bunkerman? The economy has obviously bottomed...The common man is rejoicing...
Some guy in a John Deere hat hugged me when I went to get my morning coffee...he said "all is well...what a report...I feel like a weight is lifted off of my shoulders...jobs are everywhere"
mfl, it comes down to, whither now ?
Return to normalcy is now 'expected' by (almost) all.
Krypto Fund has pelnty of long stocks;
I think the risk reward is less now, as the 'reward" is smaller. That's how I like to speculate.
Relative sector weakness during this dip (underperforming the S&P) noted in Utility UTIL, Materials XLB, Oil Service OIH, Energy XLE, REITs IYR, Solar TAN
tip of the cranberry Miller Lite hat to you Bunk.....
well well well Bunkerman....arent you just a beefer in disguise...
"it takes one to know one"
well done sir
sheesh beefers must read this blog - they are hitting AAPL
without me :(
What a draw....USA USA USA!!!
Bush in office...group of death
Obama in office...scrub tech group
you do the math.....
i like it ace !! the boys have a good chance to advance..............poor north korea
btw..............charlize theron is hot
am going to take my time putting on shorts ... I think there are some underinvested real buyers who will buy that employment number on dips, suchc as now or will Monday AM, etc..
everyone going to be a real buyer once the wing tax gets implemented...SPX 2000 by years end next year
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