Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Doldrums

Unless some major news item occurs that indicates a change, summer doldrums are on us and the economy is on cruise control.

I just heard the subprime mortgage mess could cost $52 Billion. Sheesh, that's just like one big bankrupcty spread over the whole US. For a multi-trillion dollar economy, $52 billion is just a mosquito bite. These perma-bears sure are over-screeching that one.

Most CDO and MBS holders hold to maturity. All this screeching about mark-to-market losses means little. So what matters is real losses, not trading losses.

PPI and CPI numbers today and tomorrow are important - particularly the CPI. A stable or downtick in year-over-year core CPI would be good.

Some consolidation here would be fine for the S&P and Nazz. I think we grind up like mid-March to late May, or all last fall & winter until Feb 2007. The bears aren't likely to give up and their shorts will be bought by real dip buyers. When the bears cover, we grind up as few sellers are higher except the bears. And the cycle repeats as before.

25 comments:

Bunkerman said...

JNJ beats, MER beats. MCD beat y'day. Du'h. What is weak except homies?

Bunkerman said...

Shesh. What is this infatuation with options? It's like the infatuation with shorting (except you virtual traders, I know). Seems like frantic beefer efforts to prove their worth.

Bunkerman said...

core PPI year over year 1.8%. yawn. That's fine.

Bud said...

Earnings this morning seem fine. JEF with a beat. That was on watch for an 'earnings gamble' yesterday....but I chickened out. Oh well.

Bud said...

Good to see the US government lose against 13 KPMG employees in the tax shelter case. Case thrown out by the federal judge because of prosecutor tactics. The US attorney was using disgusting and disgraceful tactics against the defendants and violated their rights. I don't care if they were guilty. A victory for the Jefferson-ites.

Bud said...

KLAC gonna do it today?

Bunkerman said...

agreed re KPMG, Bud. Gov't case was crap & tactics worse.

Frosty said...

TSO working on fifth down day....good enough to take some profit or tighten those stops....WNR pin at 60 looking good, will take some sugar there.

Bud said...

WNR tremendous. Don't ever stop drinkin frsoty.

Frosty said...

Bub, what is on the earnings gamble list today? Bunkeman, you see any of those "Du'h" plays?

Bud said...

Roflmao frosty. Do you fade all my picks? I'll post an earnings gamble or 2 later in the day.

Bunkerman said...

Nothing here, Frosty. My mind is a blank - I'm concentrating on my explosive adventure this weekend hehehe.

maverick said...

Uh Spin...I need an exact time market will drop today...much tia

Frosty said...

MIPS Bud must be faiding me at $10...another one of those high short ratio plays, with breakout potential. AYST one I posted last week, highly shorted, gapped over that 7.50 today...need to see some above avg V to maintain a full position.

Frosty said...

INTC no edge here at all, but I hate INTC....I was thrilled when they killled those mid Q updates...news from INTC always seemed to change the direction of the market.

mfl59 said...

mern still must be employed at the salt mines....i wonder if he wears a tie everyday...

Frosty said...

Bunkerman....where are our dow 14000 caps...this blog is a rip off...lol

Bud said...

I will call mern tonite and find out what he chats about at the water cooler.

Bud said...

KLAC a monster

Bunkerman said...

uh, 1,000 Dow points ain't what they used to be ;-)

Maybe Dow 15,000 means something. Maybe we should have a guessing contest for that date?

I'd have to figure out a prize hehe.

Bud said...

I like the chips alot now. B'man what semi's you long in alpha fund? Or what you lookin at?

Bud said...

No earnings gamble tonite for me tonite frosty. But i'm still lookin. Possibly INTC long.

Bunkerman said...

the only tech I own are GOOG, AAPL and ORCL - lots of each. I'm just full up at +150% long, not looking at any stocks. My ST trades are just futures once in awhile.

I don't really like semis for LT holds - too much competition. They're just trades, maybe good ones.

Frosty said...

Bub that bald dude (mern's fromer luver) on fast money and cramer says buy INTC ahead of earnings...hope that helps.

Bunkerman said...

Gotta get a haircut before I look like a hippie.

Peace on Earth.

:-)