Friday, July 6, 2007

Friday Folly

Bubblevision is hyperventilating about the monthly jobs report. With the huge revisions being so common, I don't see a big reaction unless there's a major change in trend. Any number between 75,000 and 200,000 is OK with me.

India markets near the 15,000 level on the Bombay Stock Exchange aka BSE. The index I quote is the BSE Sensex.

Today's title is partly taken from the famous book of Erasmus, "Praise of Folly" written around 1500. I heard a lecture about it on the drive to/from Ohio last week in the "Great Authors of the Western Literary Tradition" course I have on CDs. The book is styled as a "declamation" [aka a harangue at a feast] by the Greek goddess, "Folly" about why she is the greatest of all gods. It's a fun read [I not finished yet - will write more about it later].

The Nazz and Nazz 100 charts are looking OK. The S&P shows a possible bullish continuation pattern similar to March. The Rut is still in a consolidation pattern.

Earnings season will be important, as always. We might get clues about the next leg up. If new leadership groups show up, I'll try to find some new stocks in them.

I gave Mrs. B more $$$ yesterday - she wanted to buy MCD and CLX. Her broker talked her out of buying MCD in March :-( I bought in the Alpha Fund [ :-) ] and held it until April 15 when I sold it to pay taxes. So we didn't lose much of its recent move. Mrs. B is learning about stocks. I set up a full service account for her with a real broker and stay away from it [mostly ;-) hehe, I drop hints once in a while]. I wrote about it before - I call it the "Sky Fund" after our Kelpie puppy, Sky. So far it's working out well. :-)

Uh ... notice I put my $$$ where my mouth is ... buying dips.

PS: Some birds built a nest in a large rhodedendron bush in front of my ... uh ... bunker [great camo ;-) ]. This is probably a second nesting. The little birds are sure chirping away. It's very pleasant living near nature. I just saw a Blue Jay on a tree outside a window [oops, firing port hehehe] preening itself. Very, very pleasant most of the time.

PPS: Note the oil ETF - USO - should NEVER be bought as a long-term investment. It's just a trading vehicle. When it was created, the ETF's price was about equal to the nearby crude price. Now look: nearby oil is about $72 and USO is only $55. That ETF loses money every month due to the contango in the crude markets. The underlying futures contracts lose money every money as nearby crude is cheaper than forward crude. So unless that market goes to backwardation, stay away from USO for long-term investments. As a trade for a few weeks, it's fine.

109 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Oil keeps grinding up. I suspect commercial producers really don't want to overhedge going into hurricane season.

Bud said...

IBM looks pretty good to me here.

Bunkerman said...

I still watching gold. That downtrend channel is keeping me out. So I'll wait.

Bud said...

CHAP my favorite steel. I wished I was in AP a week ago. CLF fighting back.

Bunkerman said...

Goldilocks jobs number. Good news.

Bud said...

Some recent ipo's acting well........CLWR LLNW ACM EDN

Bud said...

Oh no.....I'm gettin real bullish. Not good for the forces of light.

Bud said...

I'll be darksiding these today .....HWAY PMTC. Already dark ANST ( death spiral) and more BX as long as below 31. IBKR on very close darkside watch.

Bud said...

Lolol......I see another GOP senator deserting the president over Iraq. Is he up for reelection? Of course he is. Domenici not stupid. Americans are pissed off at our disgusting president and dirtbag vice president.....and no republican up for reelection wants to be associated with them.

Bud said...

die GOP die!!!!!!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

I can't understand why anyone supports his Iraq policy. I favor a much more aggressive policy. Why are the sanctuaries in Syria and Iran let off? Vietnam all over again - the reincarnation of Lyndon.

Bud said...

COMV another recent ipo on a tear

Bunkerman said...

Something's going on in the physical oil markets. This huge premium of Brent over WTI has to mean something. Perhaps the North Sea production is declining faster? Or Russian just can't produce more for Europe? Just wondering.

Bud said...

More aggressive? It's over Bunkerman. Too bad it's not over for the GI's. They are held hostage until our stubborn and clueless president leaves office. The US is leaving Iraq. It's over. It won't be like the helicopters at the US embassy in Saigon......but pretty close. I feel so bad for the families of the serviceman.....the democrats failed you.......we should have done more to save you from this disgraceful administration.

Bud said...

Saw a decent flic last nite.....Smokin Aces. FBI vs mob vs hit men. Ari Gold plays a mobster turned witness for the government in it.

Spin-em said...

checkout the weekly USO....That have $10 upside?

Bud said...

Bunkerman please put 'Hearts and Minds' on your netflix list. It's an award winning documentary about the US involvement in Vietnam. I think it's very well done. I would love to know what you think about it. It was made in the mid70s so it's a bit hard to find.

Spin-em said...

do a daily USO to SEPT.......reverse H @ S

Bud said...

What's driving crude?

Bunkerman said...

demand and declining non-OPEC production, imho.

mern said...

Gore was arrested on charges of possessing -- in addition to marijuana -- Vicodin, Xanax, Valium and Adderall.


i was close!

what the hell is adderall and how do i get some?

lol

Bunkerman said...

Many large non-OPEC fields are declining: Mexico, North Sea, etc.

mfl59 said...

"dirtbag vice president" LMAOOOOOO

mern said...

ah its a mode elevator. i was really close

Spin-em said...

that Prius engine prolly was screaming..lol..I mean 100mph?

Bud said...

Hey mern.....i'd luv to hang out with Gore's kid. And yeah.....gimme some adderall too. Sounds like fun.

mern said...

given the state of the union i nominate bobby brown for prez and whitney for VP.
watched "being bobby brown" on the eliptical. i had no idea how banged up whitney has gotten, i didnt even recognize her.

she looks exactly like buds next door neighbor.

shes turned into a perfect sterotype. cracked out, cant open eyes, with a newport dangling off her lip, while her kids play in the pool. at least the camera guys cud save the kids if they start to drown

Spin-em said...

no need for drugs...get high on life maaan.....

Bud said...

Rofl whitney. She used to be hot.

mern said...

on the radio, yesterday, a prius salesmen called in a said he tried to get a prius to 100 mph, but cudnt get it over 80.

i think gore is a product of "racial profiling", right bud?

mern said...

spin drugs r loved in this country, and as long as MRK, JNJ, and PFE have a patton on it, and u tell your drug dealer (er, shrink) the right stuff, u can get all u want, cheap, legally.

out of the five drugs gore was using, marijuana is BY far the most benign to the body, but no one has the patent, so it remains illegal.

what a country!

Spin-em said...

was watching tennis.....Serena or Venus had a body suit on..shes about 10 pounds from being on Springer with hand to face...sayin"You dont know me...you dont know me"..lol

mern said...

any thoughts on CTSH bunkerman?

np

mern said...

that was venus. i like her chances in the finals

mern said...

oh no i thought Chao was dead. shes more out of her mind than chenney

mern said...

bad news for frosty

Ellerman was fired as commissioner of the Professional Rodeo Cowboys Association and voluntarily gave up his California license to practice law.

yet, bonds still plays on?

Bunkerman said...

I've had CTSH for awhile - a longterm hold. I don't have any thoughts. The chart looks weak for sure. It seems to consolidate every year or 18 months, then move to a new, higher level.

Spin-em said...

isnt this good for NMX?..iCE buys them?

Bunkerman said...

that might have anti-trust problems, spin.

mfl59 said...

gold stocks leading the metal....XAU breaking downtrend...$1000 gold, $20 silver around the corner....

Frosty said...

mern good call on the employment data....MAN should have a clear path to par.

maverick said...

Serena a fat strong girl...one more leg injury and she will push 225 easy

maverick said...

Clayman in dark green for mern today

Bud said...

You being too kind maverick. Serena will look like Aretha franklin as soon as she done playin tennis. She gonna smell like some fried chicken too. Lmaooooooooooo

Bud said...

CHAP and IBM lookin good.

Spin-em said...

Bunkerman firing holes in my USO barrel?....

thanks alot pal.....lmaooo

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...ie spy 1700 year end...what about these fins? obvious key to that forecast, yes? that re-balancing out of the fins the last two weeks of the 2nd Q didn't lack volume, that looks very real. is the key the stabilization of rates even if at a higher level?

Bunkerman said...

just if you are holding it for more than a few weeks, spin. ;-)

It's a good "trade" ;-)

Bunkerman said...

Frosty - yes the fins need rate stability. I think as inflation moves down, the Fed will eventually cut the overnight rate to "ratify" the market level. Thus to 5% or 4.75% and create a normal yield curve. Fins will rip on that.

Bunkerman said...

3 month T-bill rates are 4.80% yield basis. So that's a "market" level. Fed cut to 5% when having no "inflation bias" would just ratify the market level.

Spin-em said...

appreciate and respect your insight

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh, I almost barfed hearing that "live Earth" crap. Wasn't the first one of those world lovefests a concert for Biafra? Or Bangla-Desh?

I guess it's an industry now. All that money being wasted. They just sucker in the weak-minded fools.

Bud said...

'Suckers' B'man? Really? They help create awareness about enviro and economic issues. You may not believe that human behaviour effects or can help preserve our beautiful planet.....but millions do.

Bunkerman said...

Oh, they just line the pockets of the promoters and CEOs of the fat charities & activist groups.

Meanwhile, good projects that could help real people are lost.

Spin-em said...

...a kinder gentler Bud...lol

mern said...

ya caught a little claman today.

bud i wundt bash the williams sisters too bad. they live close to u and cud come over and do what happened to drama on the last episode of entourage.

poor drama LOL

Bunkerman said...

When the next ice age begins within a few thousand years or sooner, all this environmentalism will have been utterly worthless.

The future of the earth has been written and it's a dried out, dead planet with no atmosphere (in millions and millions of years). Man has to grow to be able to move on & colonize other planets. Being earth-centric is a dead end for certain.

mern said...

the human race will die out in the name of religion long before the next ice age

:-(

mfl59 said...

USA-Brazil under 20 world cup tonight....freddy adu coming off a hat trick against poland...

Bunkerman said...

THe earth loses a little bit of atmosphere every year. When that's gone, life will be long gone.

If we haven't blown ourselves up or killed everyone fighting for resources in the next ice age.

Modern environmentalism is mosty touchy-feely psycho-babble.

mern said...

Ice-covered Greenland really was green a half-million or so years ago, covered with forests in a climate much like that of Sweden and eastern Canada today.

hmmmm, u mean the earth was a lot warmer 500k yrs ago?

no way man, its us humans!

;-)

mern said...

Greenland was discovered by Vikings sailing from Iceland about 1,000 years ago. While it had an ice cap then, the climate was relatively mild and they were able to establish colonies in coastal areas. Those colonies later vanished as the climate cooled.

Bunkerman said...

In other way, modern environmentalism is a scam by the rich and powerful to divert attention from really helping people. They want to protect their positions so get the weak-minded and illogical to try saving some tree or bug.

Bunkerman said...

all true, mern. You are well-informed ;-)

mern said...

its a headline on cnn.com, not even fox

mern said...

LCOM must be killing a few people

Bud said...

Environmetalism is a scam? You guys are so despicable. Normally I wud not care what you think....but I have to share a planet with you.

Rofl spin........i am workin on my anger issues.

Frosty said...

earth-centic....I like that Bunkerman....W laughed at in the liberal media for wanted to fund Mar's exploration....Bud should be fantasying a hook up with lance bass instead of the hildog if he really wants to save the planet.

Bud said...

Roflmaoooooooooo....lance bass

Spin-em said...

so its easier to go to another planet.....?

if the bubble boy smokes 200 cigarettes ...does his not become contaminated??

Isnt it easier for the bubble boy to stop smoking?

gentleman..I implore you....

mern said...

so bud y was greenland a lot warmer 500k yrs ago, than today?

dinosaur farts?

lol

mern said...

oh crap i think the summer of mern is over. unless i fail a test or 2

Bud said...

Where you gonna get a clean urine sample from? You won't find any at the earth day concert for sure.

Frosty said...

mern....it won't last anyway...met you at the pinecone inn.

mern said...

ive been clean for a week and taking golden seal. drinking water and cranberry juice. that is one of the 2 tests im worried about. but i dont even know if they DT. im trying to figure that out without blowing my cover.

worse case scenario is ill piss water next week and get a false positive. ive done that before, but that lab had no idea y i was taking the tests.

the third one i passed, high, just to see if i cud do it.

i remember driving to the lab and having to pee in a 64 ounce bottle of gatorade the whole way there.

i even stopped drinking, yesterday, lets see how long that lasts.

the valuim and lexapro r prescribed, but ive cut back on that too.

im a mess. maybe a week in detox wud be best

mern said...

kiss my white, firm ass, frosty!

:-)

Bunkerman said...

Well, Spin, I'm thinking long-term ;-)

The earth will evolve and change regardless of what man does. This colosal hubris of greenies thinking that evolution will stop & all the earth will or can be "preserved" and all species will continue forever if "we" are just green is utterly stupid and foolish.

Bud said...

Gimme a break Bunkerman. That is not what the greenies like me are saying. Nuthin is 'forever'. What we are saying is similar to our own human health. We all gonna die.......so than why take care of our bodies, eat healthy, exercise...etc. Earth may blow up one day ( which we cannot stop) but while we are here let's take care of it and enjoy the land and the water and the air. Of course you eat garbage like mcdonalds so you may not understand.

Bunkerman said...

Well, the human race will probably be extinct in a couple million years anyway. One way or another.

And after the earth loses it's atmosphere in a billion years or so, a few billion years later the sun will go red giant and turn the leftover rocks extra-crispy.

So it's obvious: we gotta get smarter and figure out how to go to other planets. And the "mother ship" ain't coming.

Bunkerman said...

It's that "take care of it" idea - that's just a religious movement. That's the point. Focusing on "taking care of it" is foolish. Mankind should focus on elevated his thinking, not saving some bug or worm that will get wiped out in the next major ice age.

Environmentalism is like creationism - a denial of evolution.

Heck, I proved that a few posts ago anyway. ;-)

Bunkerman said...

See my June 12 post for the proof, Bud ;-)

Spin-em said...

say youre on a desert island...you have 10 slim jims and 10 bottles of water...Do you eat and drink them all at once..or do you ration them out to Live long-er and prosper?

Vulcan logic

Bud said...

Slim jims and water only? Kill me now.

Frosty said...

GSS and CDE catching a little heat the past couple of days....shed a tear for Chavez...KRY baby KRY...one would think someone would give that one a shot.

Bud said...

Lmaooo...'proof'

Spin-em said...

kill me now...lmaoooo

maverick said...

ur Bud, may I use one of Bunkie's firearms?

Spin-em said...

I suggest the 45 mav..lol

Bud said...

Well mav......if the dems don't retake the white house next sure.....sure. Just make it quick and painless.

Bunkerman said...

You figured out to get to the next island where there is fresh water.

Cut down that palm tree, build a boat & get moving. Save the food & water for the trip.

Byu the way, experts in survival know that you might as well just drink it [if quantity is that limitied]. Spreading it out does not prolong life.

Frosty said...

TWM...59.91 with spinny for a little protection...incremental profit opportunity, Bunkerman...spin-em muy caliente...perhaps even hotter than when Bud is spanking the monkey while having a hildog fantasy...well, perhaps not that hot.

Spin-em said...

may I suggest


Survivorman Official Web Site


good show

Spin-em said...

PS.....he wouldnt drink all his water at once..lol

Bunkerman said...

check out www.survival.com

I've met the guy and he's top notch. I saw him cook rat once & I had some. Tastes like chicken.

[It was at a Soldier of Fortune convention a few years ago in Las Vegas]

His tapes/DVDs are really helpful & practical.

mern said...

if your stomach can handle MCD, rat probably goes down smooth.

we went to the in laws, wed. besides the chix, greens and watermelon. had ribs and steak. ive had enuff red meat to hold till paris (six weeks away).

notice how bud is dodging the question about why greenland is much colder now than 500k yrs from now. thats right out of potomac two step, playbook, that bush wrote. i knew deep down, bud leans right!

mern said...

and is suffering from "significant shrinkage", but the water isnt cold.

:-)

Bunkerman said...

MCD makes good, high quality food. They're expanding in China & India - two places that need some quality food. Mrs. B knows a good stock ;-)

I like the grilled chicken club; so does my dog, Spike. ;-)

mern said...

in india obesisty is quickly becoming a problem.

its the american dream. we got em drinking cokes, eating MCD's, and watching tv.

what a country!

Bunkerman said...

I said before, Bud is really a libertarian posing as a greenie liberal to score with the babes ;-)

Bunkerman said...

why drink coke when there's beer? ;-)

Bunkerman said...

A close here puts the S&P cash back over the old high at 1527.

The bears will be hurting if this sticks. All those "profit takers" might get worried they are missing a new leg up.

And it's very close to breaking the downtrend line of the consolidation patern. Check out March for what can happen after that.

Bunkerman said...

S&P did it. Bears are in trouble unless something bad happens.

Bunkerman said...

Have a good weekend.

Peace.

Spin-em said...

great week,,,thanks guys....off to play 9..enjoy your weekends

Bud said...

Frosty....I do spank it to Hillary.

Bunkerman eats rat? Sheeesh

It's a bull market.

See you on Monday.

mern said...

I will pay
day by day
anyway
Lock, bolt and key
Crippled but free
I was blind
all the time
I was learning to see


Help on the way
I know only this
I've got you today
Don't fly away
'cause I love what I love
and I want it that way


I will stay
one more day
Like I say
Honey, it's you
Without love in the dream
It will never come true


have a jerry weekend ;-)

mern said...

no DT

im going to the pinecone!

Frosty said...

atta boy mern...put that bankroll back in your pocket...first round of frosty malted beverages on me, set up the bunker bar keep...have a good weekend boys.

mern said...

th x frosty! u r a sick, honest ( unilke bud) individual and thats y we get along.

word!