Today we get the CPI number. The core number is what's important: monthly and year-over-year. A stable or downtick number is good.
My dictionary purchases mentioned in my prior post again provide data points that inflation is not as large as some think. I think the price of an unabridged dictionary is down from 20 years ago. And the Oxford English Dictionary was on sale for $1000 compared to its regular price of $3000. No inflation there.
I bought some soybeans this morning at about $8.72 per bushel. The critical period for soybeans is early August when pod formation and filling occurs. The crop needs every bushel as plantings were way down as farmers planted too much corn. Carryout is very tight, even though there was a large carryover from last year's bumper crop. The beefers have been selling heavily for two days so the selling should dry up soon. This is a risky trade.
Futures are way down this AM. Maybe due to Intel margins, or due to the Bear, Stearns hedge funds being worthless and more MBS selling and liquidations, or maybe just to beefers pressing shorts again. If the CPI data is OK, I might try another long trade in the S&P futures.
PS: Bought some Nat gas - September. Selling looks dried up and August looks very hot. Risky.
PPS: Core CPI was 0.2% expected. Core CPI year over year was 2.2% which is the same as for May. That's good news. The futures point towards S&P cash around 1540 - my re-buy point. I just bought the S&P e-minis September contract.
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82 comments:
I'll be shocked if CPI is hot. Inflation numbers been market friendly. I think the Bear hedge funds is what's driving the futs down. That really is hideous news. And it raises the question...what else is out there?
What is the latest Joe is sayin about hurricane season? UNG in a death spiral. I was looking at it.
Spoke to Mern last nite. Of course he called me as soon as he heard Vick got indicted. We had a lively discussion about that. They keepin him busy with the 'tps' reports. Surprisingly, he is actually enjoying being.....uh....'clean'.
PS. He does read the blog so he knows what we been sayin about him.
GO Phils..Eagles Suck!!!!
I'm glad he's doing well. Good news.
I haven't read much about Joe's view on hurricanes lately. Must not be any developing.
10 minutes to the hour every hour on the weather ch....the Tropics report
I re-bought the S&P eminis as cash points to about 1540 on the open if nothing changes. That was my re-buy point.
sheesh my nat gas trade timing stunk. got top tick this AM :-(((
We had a good laugh about the rev/jim cramer videos. Mern had some hilarious comments about them. Not sure I can repeat them here. Lmaoooooooooooo
Various death spirals have paid off last few days but this market has some serious support. It will take some time for the foreclosures to ramp and the comsumer to bleed.
I wonder how long it will take for one of Vick's buddies to squeal out?
Gaps to fill
SPY.....151.99
IWM......83.83
Nasty....48.81
Im sure one already did.....
where can you view hose videos bud?
buckle up boys....gold on its way to $1000...
They on thestreet.com site.
Rofl 'squeal'. This is the south guys. There's not gonna be any 'fair trial'. It's already decided. Guilty. The only decision is whether Vick gets catrated or lynched. The KKK is alive and well in dixie. Fuckin racist bigots.
I really hope the Falcons cut Vick. Get on the underground railroad Mike........come play for the Nyjets. He would look very good in green!!
Sheff another criminal saying I did nothing wrong. ROFL
Bud you are one sick puppy.
Sheesh, I go load some 60 belts and all kinds of stuf moves.
I hate 60 links!!!
Maverick if you ever applied for membership in the Klan......not only would your application be approved immediately .....I can see you workin your way upto imperial wizard quickly. Frosty wud prolly start as a grand wizard.
grand wizzard....LMAO...there must be something higher in the chain of command than that...grand wizzard sounds a little fruity...not that there is anything wrong with that Bud.
No desire for the Klan Bud, just believe in justice and people not cheating and breaking the law. Do not care to protect by color.
Last time we had one of these silly "subprime" panics, we saw selling around 2PM due to beefers getting margin calls.
bears doing a good job today...stop gunning against the expo...spinny printing darkside bank....putting a little fear in the tape would be welcome.
WMR 56 and right back to the 60 pin, oh the games we play.
WNR that is....sorry
Hmm I forgot this was an options expiration week.
Bunkerman, we have been talking about expo strategy since last week...a bear raid on either tues or wed using SDS TWM and DOG as our virtual tools....you been snorting that gun powder again...lol
FLML looks like death. Good one frosty.
Lmaoo 'justice'. You really are a funny guy maverick.
uh I didn't know what you were talking about when you mentioned "expo". I figured it was some obscure code word or a rock band lolol.
Well, my mind is on my weekend of fun celebrating the America's First Freedom - the Second Amendment :-))))))
I really want to short LEH.....but don't have the guts to do it. Smells like a trap.
Bud...I've been looking at the fins all morning...the near XLF 35 is down (.80) trading at an even buck today, on only six contracts....to pin it at 35 would require another 240 bps of downside...so void of any addtional real news or turmoil in the bond market it seems like a real strectch to me....ie your LEH.
Uhhhh.......I think you sayin LEH is a buy. Or definitely don't short it. Sometimes your posts are hard to understand.
PSYS triple bottom...nah...dirt nap.
Well Bud I guess we do have something in common...I too sometimes struggle with the direction of Frostman strikes.
LEH....saying that it get's pinned at 70 this week unless there is news to cause some sort of panic...beside it is working on a fifth down week...a buy, not with my money this week.
Frosty what you doin for earnings tonite. Come on ...fess up. And don't gimme any bs about 'doin nuthin....chillin tonite...etc......
Well maverick....if you say so. But I don't think we have much else in common. Lmaoooooooooo
uh Bud, I have a Klan meeting tonight....sorry
And btw Maverick failed my 'humor test' today. My Klan membership post was a joke....Frosty got it and played along .....and maverick got all serious on me. So his grade is F - . lololol
That really is disgusting Frosty. Lmaoooooooo
UCTT gonna pop soon
SCHN blue skies
and mfl's ABK sh gonna bleed well into foreclosures and ajustable resets
always on the light side here Bubby no chance for serious behind the keyboard lol
Mav...now that is a post that makes no sense what so ever.
Mav...now that is a post that makes no sense what so ever.
bunkerman is it fair to infer that you do not think all this subprime lending will amount to much? i see you have zero financials in your alpha fund...
bears going to fumble a chance for a down 200 day...what a bunch of wimps.
mfl, I think it's just a blip. I don't see why some beefers losing money on stupid leveraged CDO bets means anything.
On the residential side, there is some pain, mostly in overvalued areas and to speculators. We've been hearing about this most six months or maybe an entire year. The problems are slowly getting worked out.
It just wasn't a big deal, ever.
Mrs. B has quite a few big financials in her Sky Fund. My Mom has big financials.
But I think I can make more money in the oils and miners. I'm 150% long in stocks and 200% including thte futures I re-bought.
I'm just out of money I want to risk in the Alpha Fund. I think the financials will rip when the Fed cuts the overnight rate this fall. Maybe I'll play them somehow then - maybe options.
The losses to the primary holders really aren't so bad - the subordinated tranche buyers who own on leverage are the ones hurting - mostly beefers.
I like the big financials - they're grossly undervalued. But I think oils & miners lead so that's where I'm putting my Alpha risk capital now. If I take some off those, I'll probably buy financials.
thanks for your thoughts bunkerman...but i thought beefers always make money??? they are a riskless asset class, according to some....haha
lololololol. Those investors in those smart BS funds sure got a lesson. roflmao.
And I think this year is going to put a nail in the coffin of the long/short funds and all those other exotic funds.
long/short funds...one of the stupidest concepts around
Bud...what are you doing for earnings tonight while I'm out cross burning?
MLF59 I resemble that comment...guess there is only one way to skin the dog hey Vick...lol
It's hard for me to figure out who was stupid enough to buy a 2-28 mortgage. I can imagine a dumb guy or speculator borrowing it. But who was so stupid to think the loan could get paid off?
But in the end, the collateral cushions the losses a lot. But sub tranche guys get zeroed.
wow the dividend yields on those big banks are huge.
Maybe I'll give Mrs. B more money to buy those big banks this fall in her Sky Fund. Hmmm. Thinking.
Beefers are a classic moral dilemma. Heads they win, tails the investors lose. 7,000 beefers - that herd needs culled. Maybe 100 might be worth anything.
Maybe this subprime business will wake up the stupid investors in them.
How many blowups do people need to decide they have enough money - just index it.
Heck, I do for 80%. Why worry about some beefer losing my money? That would be truly stupid. I can make 10% indexing around the world. That's good enough.
Nuthin before Frosty. I'll trade after they come out though.
NVEC long wud have been my play. But I am NOT doing it.
Did some NVEC. Pure Gamble!!!!! Retirement fund types don't even read my posts ...and alpha fund types better not cry either.
see spinny took that big darkside rack of chips to the window and folded those greenbacks into that huge bankroll, based on the size of this last spike. he must now be sitting around the cement pond enjoying a cocktail or two. sweat hit spin-em.
NVEC down 3. Enuff said.
IBM cheapie calls should look better tomorrow
Interesting how everyone here believes the Klan prosecutors on Vick. I never believe a US /district attorney. The prosecutor also thought the Duke lacrosse guys were rapists. Well ...they were white. Vick is black....so he must be a 'criminal'. What a disgusting system of justice we have.
Please Arthur Blank....cut Vick. Please! Teams will be lining up to sign him.
Ecce homo for who he is. Authorites found the canines on his latifundium. I find your attitude on this matter supercilious at best sir.......
uh Bud, the indictment was handed down by a grand jury...I know, it is likely they are all Klan members. Those sob's are everywhere.
spin LMAOOO, you have one of those $3k book of words also?
actually bud this is the first time ive peaked in about a week, and i gotta hop to soccer practice so i TRY to keep this short (but i probably wont).
TPS reports, TPS reports and some more TPS reports. they actually pay me to do this crap? im losing wieght, anxiety attacks GONE!, and no drug test! so smoke em if u got em.
Vick, ROFL. looks like a n bomb, acts like n bomb, guess what? he is a n bomb. the feds been on him since his v tech days. and the feds have a 95% conviction rate, but im sure its all racial profile and if manning did the samething no one wud care. PFFFFFFT
what a bull market. YHOO and INTC sucked. ben basically laid out staggerlee today. and the CPI just made me LMAO.
if i get a chance i do my own, but with the pasting natty gas took in june, the core (rent. which is the heaviest weight, didnt sore?)
that what was keeping core down in 2005 and 2006. as natural gas goes up, rent goes down in the world of the BLS. but magically, the blow up in natty gas didnt lead to a rise in rents???????
im tella ya, they just make up the #.
maybe the economy is better than i thought becuase no matter how early i leave for work, just too many cars not enuff highway. man oh man is housing just in a depression here. its insane, what im seeing. its just as insane as what i saw in 04-06 when they built all these homes. now everything is for sale. foreclosures rapidly expanding and they keep building new homes.
perhaps my dental cleaner said it best. "im just doing this till the real estate market picks back up, id be huge buyer of land here, if i had any capital" she is a licensced real estate rep, cleaning teeth to pay her bills.
well so far so gud, no hints of hurricanes but august- oct r the worst months. another gud summer and maybe my homeowners will drop again.
bud wud love this piker training me. he is more bitter than i am. used to be a broker but didnt make it. he used to ask out my wife about 9 yrs ago, and got nada. hes 5'6 and his hands look like a child. he is soooooo cocky, and hes got nada except a big fat belly.
and oh man does he love Dubya. he is convinced iraq planned 911 and had/had WMD's. he really follows politics. he was worried on 910, when the head of afghanny resistance was killed, while trying to give us some info (probably about the upcoming attacks).
he thinx no liberal can debate him. im not liberal but i still gave him stuff to think about. we decided not to discuss politics any more and focus on my TPS reports.
its really hard stuff. looking at the accounts, noticing an account with 90% of thier stated net worth in some high beta stock, and stated objectives of income and LTG. everytime i catch one, hes like "nice catch" i wudnt have thought of that.
little mern......... we gonna start trying in paris.
man was i going nutz being at home all the time. and even when i look at guys making 100k a month in gross, it almost makes me wanna get back into it, but then i remember my personality. its all or nothing for me, and all was putting me into an early grave.
peace
spin the eagles r gonna whoop your gwomen this yr. peyton sux, and its donnys turn for MVP!
Can we call the repairman to fix the clock...Why are we on FROSTYTIME???...lol
hands look like a child...rofl
mern, good to see you....it won't last.
mern..John from Cincy..pretty good huh?
I see miami cut daunte culpepper...they would have given him another year to work out that injury if he were a white QB.
LMAOOOOO...Booooyaaa
disgusting
damn, mern really on his game now,
well said and good luck in Paris...
Butchie Yost a winner
Good one, spin. You are an erudite reader!
What the heck is a "TPS" report?
spin, I think the clock is set by the Google server on the left coast. No control here.
mern, one can download books onto an iPod or nano & listen to them on the commute. That can be a peasant change from the radio or CDs.
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