Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Stocks - A Bull Market

The cash S&P looks like it completed an A-B-C correction. The Nazz broke up out of an ascending triangle bullish continuation pattern. The Russell looks sluggish.

Individual stock-wise (not selected for groups), my Alpha Fund has EDU, AMSC, AAPL, GOOG, ORCL as long-term holdings. I have deep water drillers & select oil service[DO, GSF, RIG, NE, NOV], oils [XOM, COP, CVX, CHK, MRO, DVN, SU], refiners [VLO and integrated oils already mentioned], miners [CCJ, FCX, PCU, BHP, RIO, RTP] and BTU as an energy & miner. Then I have many India stocks.

Alpha Fund is about 150% long. I have some S&P futures, too, in the commodity account. So the Alpha Fund is effectively about 200% net long.

I'm still looking for a S&P 500 cash to hit 1700 this year, barring unforeseen events.

65 comments:

Bud said...

I'm not smart ( or visionary) enough to give targets, but I have to strongly agree with you. I see lots of stocks that I want to be in. I just get wary when I get so bullish.

Bud said...

EDU is a beast.

Bud said...

POT CF TNH MON nch. MOS AGM close.

Bud said...

I wish I owned PENX.

mern said...

The quality of "written music with lyrics" is M x L as each skill is required

nobody AND I MEAN NOBODY WAS BETTER AT THIS THAN THE GRATEFUL DEAD

goog, grateful dead lyrics, goto annotonated songs. THATS MY BIBLE, those lyrics, u can live by.

yes dylan wrote great song, but the DEAD perform them much better, same with beatles tunes. DEAD just performed them better.

bunkerman if u can listen to "live dead" (live stuff from 69) and dont come away with that run away coltrane feeling, u r not listening.

again, im not aware of any band, ever that had a 500 song rotation, never drew up a set list and just walked on stage and played.

the allmans wrote some great songs. pink floyd so many great songs. led zeppelin, they cud just play. most of thier songs r just about women ditching men though.

on a few of jerry's cds he played almost all the instruments u hear.

robert hunter and john barlow have written well over 100 songs that r just priceless. songs like "the wheel" "eyes of the world" "sugar magnolia", ive always felt those songs were there, they needed to be discovered.

their entire approach to writing was unique, perhaps becuase they had no idea what they were doing and were taking LSD by the bucket. usually garcia and wier wud write music, send to hunter and or barlow, and they wud write the lyrics. they found that easier than writing lyrics and then putting to music.

"the wheel" one of my all time faves. the way they wrote that just blows my mind. jerry was in the studio and just started playing the melody and hunter immediately put pen to paper and wrote that song in 10 minutes.

u dont think hendrix was gud? janis japolin?

ill admit by 69 "the man" had pretty much ruined a gud thing, but the dead didnt vere from thier course. i suppose thats why in 69 no one knew who they were outside of cali and NY and by 95 (even though jerry was a dead fish on a hook) they still sold out 100k shows every time they went out there.

one has to wonder where the GD wud have ended up had no pigpen checked out in 72, turning a reluctant garcia into the front man?

go back to 68-69 and listen to some of those pig tunes like "turn on your lovelight" "next time u see me" even "mister charlie". i dont know if he was the "first" rapper per say, but he wud just take a song and start at the begining of the universe and his rap wud take the band and the audience all the way to end of the universe and back in 20 minutes.

no band ever cared more about thier sound on stage, hence "the wall of sound" which they dimantled in 74 becuase the cost of draggin it everywhere almost bankrupted them.

for my money the best yrs r 68, 69, 87, 88, 89, and 90. 91 was decent becuase jerry just loved playing with bruce hornsby, but once bruce left the band, jerry checked mentally in early 92 and finally all of him checked out, thankfully in 95.

plain and simple, there was nothing like a grateful dead concert, and there never will be again. im sure mozart and beethoven, if they ever saw 10 shows in a row, wud wonder, "how do they do that?"

even today dave mathews, widespread panic, pearl jam, they all gud. off the beat path, total opposite of the "american idol" culture that makes me wanna puke.

notice im not including the stones or even the beatles. i just dont think they were/are great musicians. kieth richards had not evolved as a musician at all, imo.

bono has written many many great songs, but come on the edge knows maybe 3 rifts. bono has the passion but wheres the improv and jams?

i watched "superman returns" last nite. man i want those 2 hours back, that movie STUNK!!!!!!!!!

and ya, its a bull market.

Bud said...

Goldman just loaned me 20k LOCM. Couldn't get 1 share yesterday when it was over 11 - 12. Prolly a long now.

Spin-em said...

Roger wins 350!!!...See God Bud....

mern said...

phillies 2007 season RIP!

lets go EAGLES!!!!!!!!!!!!

Spin-em said...

Hey mern...that last paragraph....he'll get you your trophy


The 76ers will begin a four-day minicamp Monday for rookies and free agents in preparation for the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, July 6-11, and the Rocky Mountain Revue, July 12-20, in Salt Lake City.

The Sixers will have all four of their draft picks on the team, as well as returning players Louis Amundson, Rodney Carney, Bobby Jones, Shavlik Randolph and Louis Williams. In addition, Edin Bavcic, the 76ers' second-round pick last year, will join the team. He spent last season playing overseas.

The Sixers also invited five free agents, including former Syracuse guard Gerry McNamara and former Temple guard Dustin Salisbery.

Bud said...

Lol.... spin doin his jon from cincinatti imitation. I really hope roger stays healthy and the yankees miss the playoffs. Nuthin would please me more than to see clemens come back with the yankees next year.


die yankees die !!!!!

Bud said...

How desperate are the 76ers. They invited G-mac. What? Steve Alford turned them down? Lmaoooooooo

mern said...

i have a feeling the sixers r gonna trade two of their first 3 picks to the bucks for that chinnesse cat who want even talk to the bucks.

that will probably work as well as the shawn bradley pick.

and unless all else fails, i think the phillies will lose thier 10,000th game this week. not only r the most losing team in american history. there is no soccer or rugby team in any part of the world with that many losses. the phillies since 1880 r 1000 games under .500. even the cubs r over 500, in thier entire history. they havent won a ring since 1908 but they still have more rings than the phillies, who logged in 1 since 1880. they won in 1980, so maybe if i lived to be 108 ill see #2

:-(

mern said...

watching a gud movie here "mars attacks" nichalson is hilarious

mern said...

WASHINGTON - Just when things looked darkest for I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, when prison seemed all but certain, President Bush wiped away the former White House aide's 2 1/2-year sentence in the CIA leak case

Atta boy, u gotta give bush credit with his consistency. i wonder if he actually has "declaration of independence" toilet paper.

one has to wonder who had the bigger drug problem? mern, paris, or the president. ive been clean 24 hours, and bored to tears. i wud love to see what they find in dubyas urine

mern said...

"I respect the jury's verdict," Bush said in a written statement. "But I have concluded that the prison sentence given to Mr. Libby is excessive. Therefore, I am commuting the portion of Mr. Libby's sentence that required him to spend 30 months in prison."

sales skills 101. here is what bush really said. "i respect the jury's verdict, BUT (ie, i have no respect for anyones opinion that is different than mine). thats all BUT means, is NO i dont agree. im sure bud was taught that his first day in the boiler room. BUT ="s "i dont agree with u!"

Bunkerman said...

Hmm. I've never listened to "Live Dead" music, I admit. So perhaps there are more exceptions to Rule #1 than I first thought. But I suspect the level of the actual music notes aren't "excellent".

But as a singer, compare to Vaugnn Monroe or Johnny Mercer or early Frank Sinatra or Al Jolson. Not in the same league. The quality of the recording is all four skills.

Janis Joplin isn't in the same league as Julie Andrews or Judy Garland or Rosemay Clooney.

And for ability in playing instruments, most of those bands are minor league. OK, guys like Clapton are good with he guitar. But then you still need the other skills.

The music of most rock is very low level compared to the 1920s, 1930s and 1940s. Louis Armstrong was great and played great songs ... written by others.

All those singers just can't hold or hit notes or sings melodies like the singers I've mentioned.

OK, when I get my iPhone, I've buy some "live" Grateful Dead tunes and listen. Maybe they are an exception to Rule #2 and need to be included Rule #3. The longevity of their careers might suppost that.

Hey, by the way, my rules DON'T preclude that truly "LIVE DEAD" is great. All my rules cover "recorded music" and that's why the Broadway exception was needed. Live performances require real talent to actually perform. That covers I and S. But not M and L.

Bunkerman said...

Lololol, I knew I'd cause trouble with that post ;-))))))

Bunkerman said...

Patsy Cline was much better than Janis Joplin.

Julie Andrews and Judy Garland are much better than Barbara Streisand. And much better than the Mamma Cass.

mern said...

Shine your shoes/light your fuse
Can you use/them ol' U.S. Blues?
I'll drink your health/share your wealth
Run your life/steal your wife


Wave that flag
Wave it wide and high
Summertime done
Come and gone
My oh my


Back to back/chicken shack
Son of a gun/better change your act
We're all confused/what's to lose?
You can call this song/the United States Blues


Bush's father , former President George H.W. Bush , issued pardons shortly before leaving office in 1992 for former Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger and five other former officials who had served in the Reagan administration. The six were involved in the Iran-Contra affair, in which arms were secretly sold to Iran to win the freedom of American hostages, then the money was funneled to anti-communist guerrillas in Nicaragua despite a congressional ban on military aid.

now those weapons, we sold to iran r being given to al queda to kill american kids. NICE!

mern said...

agree the dead, janis, thier voices (from a melody perspective) is weaker. but thats not what i think music is all about. its the passion, the fire, the improv, THE MOMENT.

clapton one of the most skilled guitar players ever. garcia was there. hendrix was the best, so says clapton, richards and pete townsend.

another great flic is martin scorese's "the last waltz" with the bands last performance. dvrd a neil young profile last nite.

i guess the pepsi challenge wud be if u cud goto see judy garland for a 10 nite run at MSG and after 10 shows in a row r u ready for another 10 or ready to go to bed. the most i saw in a row was 15, and it wud have been more if it wasnt for the damn police in rock hill sc.

ill also put out there phil and friend lineup from late 2000 till 2003 (lesh, herring, barraco, molo, haynes), passed the pepsi challenge and then some. i cud easily goto 20 in a row and they only had about 200 songs in thier rotation, and phil sang (who sounds like a dying duck on a gud nite)

mern said...

thats why the dead studio material never sold well. u cant produce in a studio, the energy and the passion that comes from playing in front of 10k freaks while the sun sets over the red rocks of colorado.

since i think "god" is an imaginery friend for grown ups, music is the most spirtual thing i have. its the only thing that has shown me there is a connection, a possible after life, and all the crap. but if aint live, its canned, and i usually dont like it

Bunkerman said...

Uh, it sounds like you basically agree (or don't object) with my rule #2 mern. ;-) You are mostly talking about the live performances and the ability to do those with endurance. My postulates don't apply to those (except #1 which is a style axiom).

Even if rule #1 applies, a live performance can still have "passion" and the "moment" with just "good" music, but excellent lyrics. Live performance attributes like passion are in another dimension from my quality measure.

Bud said...

The Editors my favorite 'new' band right now. They from manchester, england and their new album out in 2 weeks. Check 'em out http://www.editorsofficial.com/

mern said...

agreed. i like your formula, i think it actually proves my pt. the dead were the best ever! ( they just cant sing, but after a while, jerrys voice sounds great. and well bobby is bobby. yell into the mic and see what happens. and 72-78 they had donna in the band, and OMG wud she just ruin songs, imo) thats one reason why i dont listen to a lot of those yrs except 1977. that was a special yr. garcia became a huge risk taker and for the most part it worked. every pseudo heads "favorite show" is cornell, 77. i have it, its great, even fire on the mountain is on fire. but with keith a sleep at keys and donna sucking it up, it takes away from the bass bombs, the rythmn devils and jerrys big fat whaling licks on his wolf guitar. i actually prefer some of the winterland performances in dec of 77 to the cornell show which was in the spring.

if u ask bill walton 74, was the best yr. and many agree. i dont see it? 74 was gud, but only 1 drummer, keith on keys and donna was around. she had just giving birth so many 74 shows she didnt sing, thank god! for me, once brent got in on keys (79) and he started to whale on the hammond and the organs, plus his voice was great. i probably liked his voice the best. he sang the blues. i was so pissed when he died, two weeks after the 90 summer tour ended. freaking idiot was gonna go to jail for a yr on dui's and instead speedballed to an early death.

Bud said...

I know Frosty doesn't listen to anything that doesn't have alot of banjo in it. Deliverance style.

Bud said...

Lmaooooooo.....'formula'. Both of you are nuts.

Frosty said...

uh bub, music, regardless of style, is not big within the deaf community.

Bud said...

What you got Frosty? I am poor. I need to make some money. I got a check for $2000 for Hillary that I would like to put in the mail today.

Frosty said...

spin...your HOKU right on schedule...you are as hot a trader as I have seen....money, bank, hand, swish. Gmac, well no one is perfect...lol

Spin-em said...

Bud...you need to put some FUEL away for a rainy day..get it???....Stop ragin against the machine and help the ballclub...lol

Frosty said...

LOCM...shorted off your post bub 9.40, buy stop 9.15...that one looks good to me...you do all 20K?

Bud said...

I'm only short 1.5k LOCM. I'm a pussy. I'd like to be short a bunch more thursday morning. 'They' may try to run it again today.

Bunkerman said...

Obama & Hillary will probably chew each other up and the D's will nominate Richardson heheh ;-)

Bud said...

I don't think so B'man. I think Hillary will crush Obama and all the other Dems. It's her nomination to lose.........and I think she will be very careful not to make a mistake. Her biggest problem with liberals is she refuses to apologize or admit her Iraq vote was a mistake. If she ever does that.....Hillary will demolish all the dems. Clear sailing to the nomination.

Frosty said...

bub, you really want hildog sitting in the oval office, her finger on the little red button while having a flashback of monica under the desk, on her knees, gobbling wild bill?

Bud said...

Lmaooooooooo

Bud said...

Frosty please ask your son-in-law to relay this message to Hillary. I'll marry her if she ever leaves Bill. I'm havin an affair with Nancy right now.....but i'll leave her.

Frosty said...

the machines have the index spreads within 3 bps....I would be making them to take them here...nothing wrong with a large cash hord at this level...me, crazy perhaps, but the EEM at 135 sure looks temtping on the darkside at least for some consolidation as a hedge vs an increased cash postion.

Spin-em said...

Bud's lady friends like to eat dinner at 4:15......"sit up bud"...lol

Bud said...

Lmaoooooooooo............the early bird sluts.

mfl59 said...

excellent piece on all us presidents currently running on the history channel....

i knew us grant loved the sauce...i was surprised to hear he smoked over 20 cigars per day...

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh Bud, if you marry your cousin Hillary, that's incest.

Are you that depraved ;-)

Frosty said...

Bub, I refuse to utilize any influence I may have to indulge your sicking cankle fetish...please bro, get some help. I realize the neutering option seems drastic, but counseling and meds have obviously failed.

mern said...

probably been soooooo long since hildog had a service call, neither bud nor her wud know what to do with all that wool! actually bud uses organic toothpaste (man that tasted like ass). maybe u cud use her pubs as "organic" dental floosh.

i suspect pelosi is sporting a lightning bolt or unicorn, and keeps it tight down there.

rofl

mern said...

FUEL, nice. so far the "experts" r looking like it cud be 2 summers in a row where they take a big swing and miss. i hope so!

if i was paranoid, id suggest the reason we got hammered in 04 and 05, those were the summers we had the dog boarding place. since we sold, no hurricanes or wind.

coincidence?

Bud said...

I seen those shows on US presidents. Good.

Bud said...

You guys are jealous cuz I'm in love!!!

mern said...

id like to take a shot at kristen wing(from snl) dressed up as pelosi.

shes hot! and funny

bill hader and andy sandberg r the 2 most likely next big movie stars starting from SNL.

hader seems especially funny.

no one in will ferrels world, not even close, yet

Spin-em said...

a lil sauce,cigars,,a lil Camptown Racetrack in the background....nothing like it after knockin off some rebs...lol

Frosty said...

almost time to slip into the pimp gear...white wool stetson, skin tight wrangler jeans, lizard skin boots, and belt with a bukcle the size of a hub cap....let's get ready to rodeo boys...if I close my eyes I can almost smell the bull dung from the beer garden.

Bud said...

Rodeo? Do any of your leisure activities not include cruelty to animals? You really are a disgusting pig.

Spin-em said...

omg...pisser........have a Rock or two.....careful at those rodeos...dont let anybody try to ride you for 8 seconds...lol

Bud said...

Lol spin. I'd like to see the bull break loose and chase frosty back to his tralier.

Bunkerman said...

I just bought my red meat to grill tomorrow - a big chunk of filet mignon to slice into 2" think steaks & my special baked beans. Plenty of beer in the beer refrigerator, too. It should be a fine day to relax & celebrate our freedom :-))

Bunkerman said...

I saw a small time rodeo once about 25 years ago. It was a lot of fun. The cowboys were real ones - locals. I didn't see anything cruel, that would be not done possibly on a real ranch.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...ie your last post yesterday...walking the doggies vs taking the k-9 unit on patrol....the later gives me chills and the duke, well he can rest in peace now.

Spin-em said...

atta boy bunkerman.....Rolling Rock bottles boys...nothing finer....have to buy the case..cuz the light at a six pack store makes it skunky..same with Corona

Bud said...

4th of July one of my favorite American holidays. What a monumental event in world ( not just US) history. It's pathetic how so many many many Americans have no clue what really happened during our revolution. To most it's just a day off with fireworks. Disgraceful.

See you guys on thursday.

Bunkerman said...

What's a "six-pack", spin? Is that French? ;-)

I only buy beer buy the case - for 35 years, since I was 17 lololol. :-)))

Spin-em said...

Frosty..your rodeo yell....

YEEEEEHAAAAAWWWW!!!!!

or

WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOO??????

Spin-em said...

rofl bunkerman

Bunkerman said...

True, Bud. Some years my pals go to the range & dump some belts of .308 to celebrate.

Nothing like a few hundred rounds going down range in a few seconds :-)))

Or empty the drum on a Thompson :-)))

We make plenty of noise in commemoration of our forefathers.

Frosty said...

wooohoooo...RFLMAOOOOO

mern said...

off to get my teeth cleaned. happy 4th to all, and u freaks celebrate the birth of our country by blowing a small portion of it up!!!!!!!!!!!

bud im surprised, i wud have thought u wud think of july 4th as nothing more than some rich whiteys (with slaves) that didnt wanna pay taxes! i mean seriously, was that the jist?

LOL

peace

Spin-em said...

thanks Bunkerman.....



Safe holiday to all......