Thursday, July 5, 2007

What's Going On?

The WSJ of yesterday & today has a number of buyouts announced: BX to buy Hilton for huge premium; Apollo made a higher bid for Huntsman. So the call for the death of buyouts was premature.

Two hedge funds stop redemptions - they were investors in mortgage securities.

US office rents are soaring. The WSJ article blames the "new type" of buyer - private equity - vs. public REITs. Uh ... isn't private equity the traditional real estate owner? Besides, if the market had enough excess capacity, lessees would move. Perhaps this is just catching up after years of stagnant rents. That's how markets work.

KKR files for an IPO. I guess the BX poor performance isn't a barrier. BX was just overpriced.

A junk bond deal gets pulled: the borrower insisted in PIK terms. Sheesh. I'm glad the lenders wised up and did a "Nancy Reagan" - "Just Say No" to that crap.

WSJ had an article about Islamic home financing. What a bunch of crap! They describe the structure. It's just a lease financing wrapped over a convertible mortgage. Du'h ... a fig leaf. I bet the fees are a lot more than a normal mortgage. So "usury" is avoided while ripping off the borrower in fees. Sheesh.

Most organized religions have some kind of nonsense - I wonder if those are a sort of power game exerted by the leaders? Eating meat on Friday was a sin for years for Catholics. Then, mirabile dictu, is was OK except in Lent. Du'h, was it wrong before or were the leaders wrong or just playing a power game?

I remember Jewish friends in college ordering a "big burger, hold the bun" during Passover, I think. The guy behind the counter laughed & understood why. Oh well.

Amish [protestants] will ride in a car but not drive it. I overheard one saying once that their Mennonite cousins could drive. It seemed a bit humorous even to them. Some Protestant denominations will drink wine for communion; others use grape juice. Some forbid alcohol - gasp! Du'h ... didn't Jesus drink wine per the gospels? Didn't he turn water into wine per the gospels? So what's wrong with wine? Uh .. what part of the gospels do they believe - just the parts some guy centuries later decided was right?

There. I've made sport of every major western religious group. Bunkerman believes in equality ;-)

What people do for religion - jumping through hoops just to get the nod or wave from some cleric/priest/rabbi/minister depending on the religion - always amazes me.

Glad I'm a lapsed WASP ;-)

I have many religious beliefs and greatly respect religion and the religion of people. But not the stuff some guy wrote down on papyrus or parchment centuries ago telling me how to live in details - those are mostly just superstitions or the leader's power symbols, in my humble opinion. Retaining that nonsense just makes the faith look stupid, in my humble opinion.

More pollution stories from China. They have a real problem there. I wonder if the government can handle it. Lots of the pollution probably comes from well-connected firms.

The S&P cash chart looks similar to the bottoming pattern of late February and early March. I still have my long S&P futures trade on.

PS: Sheesh. More shorting infatuation. Now more short International ETFs. I wonder how are those people shorting QQQQ via QID last fall feel now, getting infatuated with that one. This is nuts. Doesn't anyone look at a weekly index chart anymore?
Du'h ... I guess not when doing only virtual trades. ;-)
Du'h, the trend is ... UP!
Why short? Buy dips!

73 comments:

Bud said...

Bunkerman please don't get me started on religion. I believe in science ...not fairy tales and superstitions. Religion serves a very useful purpose in teaching ethics and morality ....but some of the practices.......roflmaooooooooo. But hey......it's a free country.

Bud said...

RIMM in china. Why don't I own that stock?

Bud said...

I like that s and p futures trade. ( Is that a virtual slut trade?) It's a bull market.

Bunkerman said...

True, it's a free country, Bud. Agree re "science" including logic.

lolol free to make sport of and parody, too ;-)

Bunkerman said...

Well, I've had it for a over a week now so it's in the real universe, now, I guess.

Bud said...

The major religions were founded when people were uneducated and stupid. They were used by the rulers to 'control' the populace. The church ( and the others) were against open thinking or anything that challenged their power.

Thomas Jefferson has some great quotes about religion......1 of my favs......" in every country and every age the priest has been hostile to liberty".

Bunkerman said...

Hmm. I left out the scientologists lolol.

That's a big fat pitch down mern's power alley ;-)

Bud said...

A week makes it real? Cool. So I guess I am a partially 'real ' trader too. I've been holding a few stocks for several weeks now.

maverick said...

Bud, you know LK is in RIMM, get with the program.

Bud said...

Hey mern.......the latest sports illustrated has a great feature on the phillies 10k losses. Pretty funnny.

maverick said...

Was in Philly over the weekend and the paper was filled with Philly loser status

Bud said...

Yeah....he on the RIMM train ride ( more like a bullet train). I bet he's on all the train rides on his list......those been workin for a year now.

Bunkerman said...

GOOG new alltime high

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh. I was doing some work with Barron's issue of July 2 and see that Nazz short interest was up 9.2% in June to anoher record. Days short is 4.35 vs. 3.89 in May. Amazing.

mern said...

i see about 55 more losses for the phils this yr! id bet every game against them except when hamels pitches.

i was sooo spoiled growing up. saw the sixers get a ring and the phillies. in 1980 all 4 teams made it to the finals, philllies only team that won. if i had any idea how deep and hard the philly mush ran, i wud have converted after i left in 89.

if i went with the shitty tampa teams, id have a football ring, a nhl ring, and if i was down with the marlins two rings, already. down here they dont even care, except football.

total proof there is no god!

mern said...

got this line from a movie and i love it. "god is an imaginery friend, for grown ups"

my moms side is very bible thumperish, although prejudice and not very gud people (shocker). my uncle, whos son was raped by a priest for a peroid of five yrs in the late 60's and early 70's. still cut the catholic church a HUGE check to get his 20 yr old marriage anulled (they had 4 kids) and he cheated on her for almost their entire marriage.

its just pathetic. i let him know that about 6 months, my opinion. we dont speak anymore.

tues got my teethed clean by a "real estate agent" just waiting for the market to turn. she was trying to close the bottom was here and no way it cud go lower. i said something that upset her.

"u know, u sound just like my best friend in oct 2000 about the nasdaq. he killed himself less than yr later"

she advised wearing canadian flags on my luggage in france. screw it, im going and gonna be the most obnoxious american in all of paris and see what happens

;-)

mern said...

the real inconvient truth

Al Gore III, 24, was arrested in Los Angeles early Wednesday after he was stopped for speeding, according to a sheriff's department spokesman. Police found four types of prescription drugs in the car, but Gore did not have a prescription for any of them, according to Orange County Sheriff's Department spokesman Jim Amormino.

id wager, a xanax, oxycotin, zoloft cocktail and the 4th drug is anyones guess.

Police: He was stopped for driving 100 mph in his Toyota Prius

going over 100 in a prius is not very eco friendly

Frosty said...

shanghai appears to have made a classic double top and on a pe basis is cheaper than the nasdeq 40.1 vs 37.9....of course cheap on a relative basis certainly dosn't imply bargain prices....US markets are a bit overbought for my taste, some healthy consolidation is needed and a good bull stops to catch it's breath.

mern said...

ok john from cincy is really getting gud. ed oneil is killing me!

Frosty said...

uptick ruel gonzo....should be very interesting come earnings season...this is not the type of tape where missing forecast or rather expectations should be taken lightly...with no uptick ruel pounding those that dare miss should get rather crazy.

Frosty said...

no uptick also should help the VIX continue to reverse to the mean...as Bunkerman might say, beefer stop gunning games should get more intense and naked shorting harder to control.

Bunkerman said...

Uh, Frosty, I thought the marekt wsa catching it's breath since early May. We have a decent consolidation pattern now.

Good earnings can move us up.

mern said...

SLV never got over 9 day

GLD dont look much better.

maybe this disinflation thing is happening?

while i was working out yesterday came across a funny movie i hadnt seen in a few yrs "droaning mona" all star cast, devito, neve campbell, bette midler. its a fuuny movie, highley rec!

Bunkerman said...

We watched "The Music Man" last evening - one of my favorties. :-)

Spin-em said...

good morning..a lil TWM...going down on lighter volume

Spin-em said...

yeah..yeah,yeah..science and logic..I do hear ya but when the shit hits the fan...dont kid yourself...we all talk to the man.

mfl59 said...

id like to poll this board for its opinion, if i may.....when a couple in their late 20's gets engaged and plans a wedding, is it logical to assume that the bride's family will pick up the bill? Keep in mind both parties are aware that the bride's family has been under finacial distress recently....

Bud said...

Looks like spin believes in creationism. Roflmaoooooooooo

Bud said...

It's totally illogical. A friend of mine just about ruined his business cuz he spent 150k on his daughter's wedding. He wouldn't listen to me then......and now he totally regrets it. I feel terrible for him.

Bud said...

Tell the couple to elope. Vegas seems like a great place to get married. That is where my wedding will be. Hope Hillary likes vegas.

Spin-em said...

you better change that attitude Bud..or you'll never find a man...

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...consolidation pattern perhaps, hard one to argue other than to say we have seen no corrective action since last year around this time....corrective action only seen within the bond complex so far. obviously, all consolidation patterns are not created equal...for me, consolidation means that a meaningful move from a solid base leads to much higher prices as a new higher trading range is established with solid support below...currently, the metrics I utilize to determine the health of the market are not flashing buy buy buy....but that is why we all show up to play the game.

mern said...

nope. in my case i paid for almost the entire wedding. the in laws kicked in about 3 grand.

id say if both in financial stressful situations. cash bar and split the bill down the middle.

i was really stupid. i told people not to bring gifts. poor people that came gave gifts. rich people like my estranged uncle, gave me nothing. i think i got 500 bucks back at the wedding. interesting experiment that costed me about 5k.

agree when the pop hits the fan u pray to something, but pretending to have any tangible feel for what that presence is clearly beyond our myopic brains. its supposed to be. i wud agree most religions were started by smart, greedy people, looking for a way to profit off the stupidity of people that need a "god" to get through the day.

between drug addicts and bible thumpers id take drug addicts. they r more obvious about thier faults. and dont get me started on the "born agains". i have yet to meet a born again that wasnt a total crook, no morals at all. ya they carry a bible around, while they do stuff i cudnt even imagine.

i know my uncle and my ex best friends parents just beg me to go church. they think im sooo lost. again my uncle has lived a life of utter insanity. does god really recognize the anullment, just becuase he carved out a 100k check to the st louis church (who had already sent him 60k, in 1990, to shut up about his son being molested on all those camping trips)? u were married for 20 yrs and had 4 kids. that sure sounds like a marriage to me, but cut the church a big enuff check its all cool!?

then my ex best friends parents whose reaction to my informing them that matt does about 1k of cocaine a week is i need to go to church and they pray for me. this from a family, whos father brought a child into this world, in vietnam and has been fighting the child support for over 30 years. and the mother wont allow asian people into thier homes.

why do these people need to go to church every sunday. its out of guilt.

i have my faults but i sleep gud at nite becuase ive never cheated on a girlfriend, more or less cindy. never ripped off a customer. in fact my biggest regret in life, is just being too nice to so many bad people. it has turned me into one bitter critter

Bud said...

Spin........from downtown and one!!............lmaooooooooooooooo

maverick said...

Are baby boomers that damn insecure. Teach the kids something and stop enabling them. Help them build a future.

maverick said...

Uh...that was in reference to Bud's friend.

Frosty said...

mern...you never served up a blue plate special...put lipstick on a pig? save that one for the pearly gates...LMAOOOOOOO

Bunkerman said...

Well, mfl, when I got married almost 30 years ago, it cost about $500 - maybe less. I guess that's about $2,000 now.

So the bride should just put a low limit on it. If the groom wants to spend more, that's his problem.

Big, expensive weddings are dumb, imho, unless one is wealthy.

Bunkerman said...

I agree, spin. I was talking about the silly detail stuff.

Agree, mern. Doesn't taht anullment crap sound like the "indulgences" of the Middle Ages that led to Protestantism? I can't see a difference.

mern said...

2k for wedding. ROFLMFAO!

2k for a wedding dress.

if u can throw a half decent wedding for less than 20k, i ll give u a yogi button!

Bunkerman said...

The way I see it, Frosty, is that the market is well under where it would be at this stage in a normal bull market. The ghosts of 2000 are holding it back. So I think a grind up is what we do. This is consolidation against/at the old all time high in the S&P.

mern said...

sure does sound like indulgences. i learned about those in 7th grade and thats when i began to question the tripe my mom and the church were cramming down my throat.

its such a cult. i still know every prayer, when i got a wedding or a funeral. they were beat into my brain before i even understood what i was saying.

sort of like "the pledge of alliegance" (one nation, under god (whos god, im not sure)) learned that by age 4. do you have any idea what you are saying at age 4?

its scientology with some polish

Bunkerman said...

We had a really nice wedding. No pretensions. Our wedding photo [sic] are very nice and humble.

$500 for a nice dress - not fancy, the guy wears a business suit. And then $1500 for 25 people at a small reception and cake.

No big deal.

Bunkerman said...

Actualy, we have no photographer at all. Just some relatives took the photos with normal cameras.

It can be done - no problem. Just get the prince & princess model out of their heads.

mern said...

im reading a biography on jerry garcia right now (shocking, i know). in the forward there were comments from long time friends. one was a reporter from rolling stone. he mentioned how jerry was in position, nightley, to give political lectures or philosophize but he didnt. they wud walk on stage and play, and at the end jerry wud "gud nite and thx" that is it.

phil rants at his shows now, but mostly on donating your organs. i dont see a problem with that.

in 2004, the dead tour, every show, they were pounding the table u better vote for kerry or we probably wont see an election in 2008. i dont know, it didnt seem right to me.

made me miss the big fat guy. same shirt and pants every nite. the only thing different was the setlists, the songs (as they evolved) and notes jerry didnt play. that is really what defined him as such a gud guitarist. u listen in 65-67 u played alot of notes. he was very fast. as he became more comfortable with the band, he wud let others take the lead, and let it circle back to him naturally. so in essence what made jerry the bomb, wasnt neccasarily the playing, but knowing when not to play.

he is a great role model, except for the heroin and being miserable almost his entire life.

Frosty said...

EWG on record V pace today...should get some double top chatter if this pace continues.

mern said...

the cheapest way to wed these days is to do it on a cruise. unless u plan on having a cash bar and dueling banjos playing.

my wedding was simple. 60 people, in the bahamas. it was still almost 20k, and that was about half the price i was looking at, any where in tampa.

the last wedding i went to, a cousin, it had to cost well over 100k.

the flutist alone was 1 grand.

we didnt hire a photographer, a friend did that for free. still waiting for the pics, LOL.

oh i went to a cheap wedding in philly last yr. about 50 people, ceremony and reception in this hole in the wall in rose valley. 50k was the bill on that one. the in laws split the bill.

i guess the BLS doesnt include college and wedding into thier CPI.
read an article about soaring rent prices today. since that makes up 31% of the CPI, shud be bad for the bond vigilantes. but never discount the magic of the bls!

mfl59 said...

thanks for the insights....i just wanted to make sure I wasnt going nuts for thinking an outlandish wedding is a bit silly...

Bunkerman said...

It's nuts, mfl. Why spend the down payment on a home? Insanity.

Spin-em said...

tuesday high on TWM 61.23

Bud said...

Bunkerman were you...uh... 'strapped' at your wedding?

Bunkerman said...

Hmm, urban dictionary says "strapped" relates to carrying a firearm. No, I was unstrapped if that's what you meant. ;-)

Bud said...

Come on Bunkerman! You had to look that up. I thought you would be familiar with all street lingo surrounding guns. 'Strapped' and 'packin heat' my favs.

Bunkerman said...

Uh, Bud, ghetto talk is not my strong suit.

But if I go to a ghetto, I'm definitely "strapped".

Bud said...

Lmaooooooooooooo

mern said...

lets use it in a sentence.

while bunkerman visited buds condo, he was "strapped" from head to toe.

im not saying bud lives in a ghetto, but it is niggerish.

;-)

mern said...

LOCM short must be hurting "da tank"

Spin-em said...

yikes...rofl

Spin-em said...

its a PENX,GTLS horse race......

08 growth rates and PE.....as prosecuter to jury in my cousin vinny..... "are....i-dent-ical"

Bud said...

Come on Mern!!....i don't live in the hood.

mern said...

LOL LOL

Bud said...

My Cousin Vinny....very very funny. Put that flic on your list B'man. I absolutely love marisa tomei. She was in RescueMe last season......smokin hot!! Always think of that seinfeld episode when i see her.

mern said...

costanza never stood a chance with joey bag o donuts girl!

Bunkerman said...

I've seen that & have it on tape, Bud. Very enjoyable show.

mern said...

"win some, lose some"

rofl, classic movie

Bunkerman said...

I just noticed the Nazz 100 chart looks OK. Interesting.

Bunkerman said...

Real buyers bought the dip again. Hmmm.

Peace.

Frosty said...

anyone think they have an edge on the employment data? more important, the market reaction?

mern said...

the feds wish is the BLS command frosty. so a # the bulls love coming up. i guarantee it!

mern said...

deflation alert. just bunled my VZ cable, internet, and voice with wireless.

old bill 211.10. new bill 195 for all 4 services.

NICE!

Spin-em said...

what no rodeo report???

Did you see YellowJacket?..lol

Frosty said...

rodeo a 10...great weather, super action, beer garden rocking..whole family in tow...just super.

mern said...

LMAO

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
haaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

u mite be rich but u r a tool!

LOL (kidding) whatever gets your rocks off

peace