Bits and Trends

Retail sales in China are up 22% in October - I guess that's year over year. Hmmm ... quite interesting. Perhaps China have developed considerable internal domestic demand and doesn't rely as much as one might have thought on exports.

A problem Japan has had for many years is that its economy excessively relies on exports and domestic demand is too low. Demographics partly forces that, but government policies there exacerbate it.

American Express to ask for TARP aid. Huh ? What the heck has that management been doing ? I've never liked the management of American Express. I fear there is a bug under that rock.

I think the Mexico story from yesterday about how they have hedged a very large amount of oil tells us why oil is still weak. Hedging by producer nations that need the money. Hmmm ...

Actions

Yesterday I re-bought some CCJ as the wash sale tax window is long gone. Their earnings were OK and uranium really is the only effective power source that does not produce carbon dioxide. I don't believe that global warming is caused by humans, but enough people do and I'd like to profit from their stupidity. 1/2 position for now.

I also added a bit to DRYS, EXM and GNK. These stocks are ultra risky as the chance does exist the banks won't show some flexibility in loan to value covenants. But in my experience, as long as the companies produce cash flow on the loans, the banks will, and should, forebear. These companies do not have excessive debt and did a good job locking in long term charters with good credits for enough of the fleet to cover the bank debt. Dilution is a risk, as is whether large shareholders are margined on their stock. I do not have positions that are too large in those, and will add a bit me at good prices.

Late yesterday an astute commentor skeptically asked for my 'plan". Overall my plan is to continue to buy some stocks I like at good prices. I like GOOG but cannot buy it until late in the month due to the 30 day wash sale window. I will maintain a reserve, either in the Alpha Fund itself or in the bank account from which I can easily shift $ to it. "Protect yourself at all times."

Why do I care about tax losses ? Since I plan to hold these stocks a long time in the future to get large, long term gains. I don't want to lock up valuable tax losses for years. And I can use those losses this year as I still have very large capital gains to offset - both short term and long term. This save me real money every quarterly estimated tax payment day.

Word of the Day

"Assay" - noun and verb [many usages, this usage is a $100 one from an H. L. Mencken quote]
Assay means (after meanings 1-7) 8. (metallurgy) determination of the amount of metal, especially gold or silver, in an ore, alloy, etc.; 9. a substance undergoing analysis or trial; 10. a detailed report of the findings in assaying a substance; 11. (archaic) examination, trial, attempt, essay.
Sentences:
(A) (from "the Impossible H. L. Mencken", page 207) "For seldom have these eyes encountered a document by an American politician which there was a larger assay of common sense."
(B) The assay of common sense provided by Babblevsion, Blabberg and in general the American press compares unfavorably to the assay of true gold in fool's gold.