Friday, November 21, 2008

The Panic Continues ... II ( or is that LX ? )

More of the same, as the liquidation train wreck goes on.

Congress has shown itself incapable of doing anything rational in a timely manner. so this slog will likely continue now into December or when the new Congress is installed in the first week of January or maybe even until Barry takes office.

This drop seems like a replay of the late September fall when Congress first could not act quickly on the TARP. This time it's their inability to provide the auto industry a bit of relief. When one remembers that they can waste $25-50 billion on earmark every year, their inability to provide some relief to help prevent turmoil that could endanger huge numbers of good paying jobs is quite stunning.

US Treasury bonds are at record low yields in recent times, as I suspect all that money flowing to buy fixed rate life annuities is going to buy long dated Treasuries. Why should the insurance companies take risk on those ? They'll pay a low rate and invest in Treasuries for now.

At this point, perhaps Congress should just consider providing the auto industry with $100 billion of "debtor in possession" financing so their looming bankruptcy will be an orderly reorganization, not a liquidation. That is super-senior, so the unemployed taxpayer might not "lose money" ... his job, Congress seems willing to let go to the wind.

By the way, is a bit of "inflation" really so bad ?

Actions

The bloody morning drop worried me with more insane swings in fine stocks like RIG, so I sold the oils and some miners on the minor bounce. I had written that when the bears keep knocking - kicking - on that support level, they would likely get through. And they did.

Alpha Fund now just 50% long, holding only FCX and the small shippers DRYS (ultra-risky), EXM and GNK. I bought some more of all of those yesterday and might buy more. Those stocks, IFF they work out, have huge upside.

I am waiting for some deadlines to pass so I can do a re-allocation in Krypto Fund.

The markets are like a wild brawl - or shoot-out - of drunken gangsters. Watch out, don't get hit. Protect Yourself at All Times. Big profits await the survivors.

Word of the Day

"Ennui" - noun [$10] This is an old card from my file - I can see that my handwriting - perhaps from 35-40 years ago. But since this morning I learned the French words from which it derives , I thought to use it today.
Ennui means a feeling of weariness and dissatisfaction.
Sentence: The constant wildness of the markets have been ongoing so long that "investors" must now feel ennui and certainly resignation of a long wait for recovery.

37 comments:

Bunkerman said...

amazing ... Jack Welch reads this blog - he stole my governemntal "debtor-in-possession" financing idea.

Spin-em said...

auto boys....ya have a ton of inventory thats not moving.....no money comin in....people and suppliers to pay....slash the prices big time...theres a price that people will buy....will ya make $$? hell no.... but its what youre going to do down the road so..just stop begging and get slashin....youre just a big KSS....and when spring is around the corner... 50-70% off sale baby..loool

Bunkerman said...

I wonder what the return would be on a selective basket of single digit stocks thru 1/1/2010 ?

Bunkerman said...

thinking ...

Bunkerman said...

I wonder if $100K in that could become $1 million in 2010 or 2011 ?

Picking 10 or 20 stocks ..

If, so, it's intriguing ...

Bunkerman said...

One would have to invest before Barry takes over.

After that the cheerleading begins.

Bunkerman said...

no margin to avoid a wipeout on a raid.

Bunkerman said...

intriguing risk-return profile $0 or $1 million.

Depends on the world surviving, and stock selection.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman those were some great sales a few months back in the financials....

Bunkerman said...

yes, I lost $ on C and WB, but in the end, got out OK.

Actually I made $ in JPM and BAC with the judicious trading. Ugh ... trading

;)

Even GE sale looks "smart" now. Ugh, lost money on that one, too.

Bunkerman said...

at this time, a problem with banks is that all the profits are likely to go to the preferred stock - they have some big dividend obligations.

mfl59 said...

do you think Barry and co will "persuade" these banks to cut their dividends? thus making these very large yields misleading,,,

Bunkerman said...

btw, the lows for C in 1987, 1993 period are $1.50 - $2

Many mergers since.

Bunkerman said...

no, seems to me that dividend cuts hurt the stocks, witness BAC, C, etc.

I guess WFC and JPM fields might be large, now.

mfl59 said...

How do you explain to the common man, to Joe the Plumber, that these banks borrow form the govt yet pay out dividends? seems a bit counterintuitive

Spin-em said...

W......"when's lunch??..I can eat a horse".....

Bunkerman said...

which bank is "borrowing" from the government (other than Fed)

mfl59 said...

that is the common man's understanding of the TARP...the govt is providing banks with capital....

Bunkerman said...

I don't think an incorrect interpretation by the common man is a reason to force a bank to cut its dividend.

Cutting dividends is a sign of more badness - Obama will be a force of light.

;-)

Bud said...

i been very sick since tuesday nite

so no football picks unless i get a chance to do some 'research'

but.....1 is a no-brainer

take the Scarlett Knights......they on a roll...and i'll be riding them

mfl59 said...

I think you are missing my point...but no matter...its not very important...

go get you gold $1000 hat out of the closet (that should mush it)

Bud said...

is rutgers even playing??? who are they playing ?? what the spread?? ........i have no idea


that's ok.....schiano's army can't be stopped

mfl59 said...

they are playing a very dangerous Army squad....giving 17 and a hook....pfffttt

Bunkerman said...

I understand the point. But I don't see Barry doing anything.

Bud said...

congrats Bman


i only talked the tak on armageddon........but you walked the walk


'firearms......ammo.....mre's....gold and silver coins.....surviavl techniques......bunker'


you have to be the most prepared man in america for the coming armageddon



i'll have to rely on the 'state' for my rations and security


and as we saw in new orleans .....that doesn't work in chaos


oh well.......you warned me

Spin-em said...

How bad can it get in Lauderdale?...Wilding thug grannys wielding white purses.....drunk Sping breaker hobo's??

Spin-em said...

Bud talkin to his grand kids

"You little punks dont know how good you have it...times were so tough inmy day...we couldnt use the AC and we had to WALK 18...pffftttt"

Bunkerman said...

hmm maybe that's why I am such an optimist ... being so well prepard for disaster, I don't worry about it at all.

;-)

Bud said...

lotta jigaboos in lauderdale

let the looting begin

Spin-em said...

why..there were times.your ol grand pop only made $2500 a week

kids...."woooooooow"

Frosty said...

Bunky...TBT 51.20 starter...just in case the world is around a few more weeks...Mrs B all over it yesterday my bet, she's the best.

Bunkerman said...

Mrs. B is letting the dust settle awhile. More $ in January

She's gone to a dog agility event with Spikie, Ava & Krypto.

The men - me & Sky - are bachelors this weekend.

Need beer ...

Sky to herding Sat & Sun.

Maybe I'll stop at McD for him

mfl59 said...

I wonder how long before Meredith Whitney leaves Oppenheimer and ventures into beefer land...she shouldnt have trouble raising $$$$

Bunkerman said...

I hope the Geitner news is true.

Bunkerman said...

and compete with her beefer masters ... lololol

Bunkerman said...

How could Meredith be right if she didn't have her beefer masters raiding the stocks ?

Spin-em said...

enjoy men...and patrick