Friday, November 28, 2008

Reflections on Value

The situation with General Motors can provide an illuminating case study of what the value of a corporation actually is for stockholders. That corporation has existed in one form or another for 100 years. Suppose one held his shares the entire time. What did stockholder receive for the equity investment in common stock ? That only tangible value received is the dividends paid.

What did stock buybacks do for him ? Nothing. Stock buybacks subsidize the sellers of the company's stock at the expense of the long term holders.

This downturn shows that all stock buyback plans are a bit of a scam. Now, just when stocks prices are very low, the companies are cutting back on stock buybacks. And many banks are issuing new shares at very low prices after buying back stock for years at much higher prices.

Dividends benefit long term investors. Stock buybacks benefit traders, hedge funds and speculators at the expense of investors.

What should a company do with its excess cash flows in good times ? That is quite easy. Pay down all short term debt due within 10 years or less. Raise its dividend to a level payable even in poor environment After all, with less debt, more cash flow can be used to pay dividends. Also, overfund the pension fund to give it a cushion for downturns.

In good times a company should have paid down all its short and intermediate term debt and funded all long term assets with a conservative mixture of long term bonds and solid equity. Then it can survive a severe downturn and have resources to make favorable investments then at low prices.

CFOs need a refresher course in corporate finance.

Word of the Day

"Rowel" - noun and verb [$10] - a Mencken word
Rowel means (noun) a spiked revolving disc at the end of a spur; 2. (historical) a circular piece of leather, etc. with a hole in the center inserted between a horse's flesh and skin to discharge an exudate; (verb) 1. to urge with a rowel; 2. (historical) to insert a rowel in.
Quote From "The Impossible H. L. Mencken", page 591 from his Scopes Trial coverage referring to the Scopes jury: "... a trial before a jury of men who have been roweled and hammered by those opponents for years ..."
Sentence: The very highly paid "managers" of US corporations are about to be given a hammering by politicians roweled by an angry public seeking retribution, who in turn were roweled by those managers who cut the pay and benefits of the common man while paying themselves colossal sums for "good management" now seen as a lie and scam.

54 comments:

Bunkerman said...

CHK is a poster child for poor financial management - needs cash now when its stock is low.

All banks, too.

Bunkerman said...

it's incredibly poor finacial mangement for CHK to not fund drilling lease obligatison with long term bonds at reasonable rates when times were good.

Bunkerman said...

Chesapeake Energy files Form S-4 with SEC to sell 50.0 mln shares of common stock at a proposed price of $15.82 (20.24 )

Bud said...

it seems like CHK was funding long term exploration projects with cp......how can that be ??

even i know that's adangerous game

Bunkerman said...

Bloomberg.com reports Satellite Asset Management, founded by former employees of billionaire George Soros, stopped client withdrawals from its three largest hedge funds and eliminated more than 30 jobs after losses reduced the co's assets to about $4 billion this year. Satellite Overseas Fund, Satellite Fund II and Satellite Credit Opportunities have declined as much as 35% in 2008, said a person with knowledge of the funds' performance...

shucks.

Hedge Funds are NOT a different "asset class" - they are just a speculative vehicle for hot money.

Bunkerman said...

In the 1990s I saw a company do that ... it went BK in early 2000s

Completely delusional greed.

Bud said...

pitt + 3.5 ......i'll take the points in the rivalry game....and that loss to rutgers not lookin that bad now


south carolina +1.......sec v acc....are u kiddin me ??


florida state +17......sec v acc....uhhh....well.....i don't consider the seminoles a 'true' acc team.....i'm pretty sure they don't have a lacrosse program in tallahaassee


oregon state -3........i smell roses for the beavers



oklahoma -7.......need a monster 'run up the score' win to jump the longhorns in the bcs




PS.....iowas state season over.....made good progress.....chisum gettin the program turned around

Bunkerman said...

seems like lots of companies were doing that - we know GE was.

CFO of GE not fired yet.

Nor CFO of C, other banks, for funding long dated assets with repos, etc.

Incredible that LEH was funding Asian real estate with overnight paper.

mfl59 said...

Bud you are hot...and I have to go with the hot hand....

Rutgers-Louisville on Thursday night if all else fails...

Spinny been at KSS for over 3 hours....

Bud said...

'if all else fails'


lmaooooooooooooooooooooooo


ya....that's my backstop

Spin-em said...

dont think we'll hear "great coaching fat Andy".....today its Donnnnnnnnny...unless he's swingin from the Johns Pass Bridge..

Spin-em said...

Frosty going for Tebow.........3 of the suckiest games in the history of Thanksgiving???

Spin-em said...

yes..I bought 300 pairs of socks at KSS...figure I'll clesr $73 on Ebay....

Spin-em said...

file under BS....SRS back to jan 08 levels...markets down 40%...

BULLLLLLLLLL-------SHITTTTTTTTTTTT

mfl59 said...

I was told by many "investors" last night that stocks are so cheap it is insane.....When I disagreed and said some are but some arent-as we can't really quanitfy what effect all this will have on a firm's earnings, among other things, I was called a fool...and blind....

Yeah...the public is real scared...pfftttt....

Bud said...

i agree with that

i was bombarded with questions about what to buy

C and BAC were popular choices......it won't take much to get the greed train goin again


long only investing indeed

Bunkerman said...

uh ... talking but they are not buying.

Mutual fund outflows are huge.

Bunkerman said...

the problem with C and BAC is that huge layer of preferred stock laying on the common.

Those stocks won't be able to pay an increased dividend for years.

And probably the management cads are planning an new "incentive" stock option plan.

Bunkerman said...

If you told them to buy MCD or WMT or PG, they'd probably groan and not do it. Not enough "zip".

Ture, there is still a lot of greed in the speculator crowd, but huge fear, too, in the investor crowd.

Bunkerman said...

uh ... when can one "ever" quantify the future ?

Or the effect of anything on anything that is the subject of human decisions ?

When is the future ever "certain" ?

Bunkerman said...

To me, this looks like 1974 all over again. look at the 100 year charts.

Bunkerman said...

Some people that were in cash are looking at buying beaten down AAA MBS selectively now. Talking $millions.

Returns look like 30% - no leverage

Bunkerman said...

1938 fits rather well, too.

mfl59 said...

Ifone cant get a grasp on future earnings, how can one determine if a stock is cheap?

Bunkerman said...

besides, yesterday's losers are not often tomorrow's winners.

Some exceptions.

Bunkerman said...

one can look at the potential earnings of the company in a business cycle and evaluate what it can do IF the economy gets normal again.

For example, if one looks at a solid company with a good balance sheet and sees its earnings trend line over 10-15 years, then determine what it might be worth in 2 or 3 years.

That is "long term" investing, not play next Q or even spring earnings.

One can find many bargains - I am looking for 20 good ones to buy personally - that can make me 5-10x in 2/3 years.

Bunkerman said...

I don't give a crap what earnings are in 1st half 2009, as long asthe compnay will not go BK.

By 2nd half 2009, Obama's huge stimuls should have kicked in.

By 2010, good, broad economic growth will be back worldwide, barring a war or trade war.

mfl59 said...

long term investing....what is that?

Bunkerman said...

lol, you are roweling me

;)

Frosty said...

oregon state -3........i smell roses for the beavers

I smell frosty's rotting flesh...mernstyle indeed...there is no god, if there is he hates me.

Spin-em said...

I dump my girl so I dont have to meet the parents....oldest azzlicker trick in the book indeed

mfl59 said...

The people who attempted to tell me stocks were cheap were basing their analysis solely on price....that annoyed me a bit...thats all...

When a massage therapist tells me that Citigroup was cheap at 30, 25, 20, 15, 10...and now is the steal of the century at 6...well, I scoff a bit....

Bud said...

was that a shot at me ?? or mern??? hmmmmm



PS.....i really do like the beavers....that may be a '10' unit trade


PPS....btw frosty, i don't hate you....i just can't understand anythin you say.......now mern....he hates you.....you killed him in the QID

Spin-em said...

you had a girl Bud???

Bud said...

the girl i'm dating right now

says i look like jon secada..........i had to google



lmaooooooooooooooooooooo

mfl59 said...

I thought she said you looked like Lance Bass?

Bud said...

cu guys on monday


go GAMECOX !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



trifecta indeed

Spin-em said...

I..... I....... don't wanna say it

I don't wanna find another way....

Make it through the day without you


I..... I........ cant resist.

tryng to find exactly what I missed

It's just another day without you

Spin-em said...

"i was "bombarded" with questions"

interesting choice of words "secada"....hmmmmmm

Bunkerman said...

true, alone price means nothing.

Bunkerman said...

most people do more analysis buying a steak than a stock.

Frosty said...

Bunky...money supply out later today...would like your take, unless you are busy analyzing spam...you can't handle the truth.

Bunkerman said...

easy puffball frosty, I want the monetary base to be as high as possible. The higher the better.

Bunkerman said...

part o fthe cause of thjis mess is the stingy growth in the monetary base until September.

I was griping about that for a long time.

That was a legacy of the inflation mongers.

Bunkerman said...

I'll just trot around the bases and doff my cap at the roaring crowd of the common men & women.

Frosty said...

slugging percentage ppffttt...complete with a ticker tape parade as nonposters shower you with shreaded 401k and pension plan statemetns....ty cobb style indeed.

Spin-em said...

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA..oh maaan

Spin-em said...

merns playin ... 5 card dead man bluff.. dueces and blackazz queens wild...everybody callin him..loool

Tampa yellow pages see Dr Melfi

Bunkerman said...

not sure about that, frosty ... Krypto Fund is massively outperforming pure "buy & hold" S&P 500.

Bunkerman said...

since it seems to outperfom in good years and bad years, I guess it's worth the dog biscuits I pay Krypto to manage it.

I hope she doesn't hold out for 2 and 20 next year..

Bunkerman said...

have a good weekend ... lots of tasty leftovers to eat here.

Frosty said...

LAMOOO Spin...that from the movie, weekend at mernie's..."How do you like that? The guy gets laid more times dead than I do alive."

Frosty said...

Mrs B is the best...have you no shame sir...we know swings the big stick Hooterville.

Bunkerman said...

true, she is kicking my butt this year.