Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Back in the Saddle

I'm back from the heartland. I thought that traffic was a bit lighter than normal in Connecticut, but I did get on the road up earlier than usual [5AM] so hit CT a bit earlier, too. But there were quite a few trucks on the highway.

McDonald's got plenty of business - whatever some say, I think they make good quality, tasty food. My dog, Spikie, likes it, too. She had a classic grilled chicken sandwich, no mayo, for lunch. Spikie loves McDonald's food!

I see Ms. Market continues to take good care of the long term investor. Sometimes tortoise-style investing does quite well. Simply holding long if conditions are good means one gets a piece of the action on these periodic one day moves in a long stairstep move up.

Yesterday's move confirmed the break up. Sayonnara double top bear! A few weeks ago I observed the inverse H&S bottom pointed to at least S&P 1600 cash. The weekly upper uptrend line points to 1700. That was my "target" for the year. Whether we get there this year or in 2008 will depend on news and events to come. But the economic trajectory is good and investment conditions are in the sweet spot.

It's a bull market. Buy dips in strong stocks & groups. Hold until something changes.

PS: I started a position in BNI, the train stock that has routes in the northwest. I like the chart, Warren Buffet position and that they should move a lot of lumber next year if/when housing industry turns up. The stock is about 85 at 14x 2008 earnings. I think it can hit 120 as the economy re-accelerates late next year. The monthly chart shows a good, long base.


Frosty said...

buy the dips indeed...but this market never dips...what is a common man to do? Welcom home Bunkerman...what is your vurtual plan, if you were not real that is.

Bunkerman said...

Uh ... August looked like a dip if one wasn't in. Or off the bullish flag last month.

I'm as long as I want to be. When I sold some stocks in Spetember when I posted them, I was about 200% long. Now I"m about 140% long. I have a few stocks I plan to sell into this move to get me to a point to 125% long.

At that point as I close down my commodity account as the T-bills roll off [to cut "retirement" stress], I will be 100% after adding the commodity cash to my stock account.

If we get dips in stocks I like I'll buy some. Or if I identify more strong stocks or groups. So I'll ride the trend as long as it looks OK and my thinking is not changed by news.

I plan to sell some stocks that are becoming long term gains in a few weeks. I have big gains in them.

I'm thinking of buying BNI if I can get a good entry ($85). I figure when housing eventually recovers, they'll move a lot of lumber from the NW. Plus there's the usual grain & coal.

Bunkerman said...

Gee frosty, I was practically begging you to buy GOOG and BAC. :-((

Bunkerman said...

I started my position in BNI at about 85.5

Bunkerman said...

I think BNI can hit 120 next year, that will give my my 30% gain that my Alpha Fund needs to keep me working.

It has a fine long base on the monthly chart.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...thanks for rubbing my nose in BAC, you a real pal :)....BNI is an increase in coal shippments key...all that ag stuff must be built in...also that NW timber a lever for BNI...looks like it goes to par at least to me.

Bunkerman said...

I see BA is taking the Dow down.

Bunkerman said...

BA and HON; AA

Why oh why would anyone ever think AA will surprise to the updise? That company needs BHP to buy them. Or a Russian Al producer. The only reason I own it is the takeover. Mngt is poor.

Bunkerman said...

Why does Chrysler exist? Sell Jeep and liquidate it.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh ping pong indeed. XLE reversed up to a solid gain; all but CVX.

Bunkerman said...

I guess the dip got bought. XLE shows a big bullish C&H break today.