Friday, October 26, 2007

Stompin' at the Savoy

The beefer traders seem to be partying bigtime with Ms. Market with their stomping tactics, swinging her around in a wild jitterbug. "Stompin' at the Savoy" was a great 1934-36 era Jazz song first popularized by Chick Webb and later Benny Goodman. The Savoy Ballroom was a large 10,000 sq. foot dance floor in Harlem in New York City where many great jazz tunes & great performers were showcased [ see http://www.jazzstandards.com/Test/stompinatthesavoy.htm ].

They are really enjoying the wild life without the Puritanical uptick rule. For a third day they shorted like a sailor on leave drinks, trying to push the markets down and perhaps create a breakdown and panic. But it failed again and they had to cover. By the close stocks were mostly unchanged except some sectors under recycling selling like the Nazz 100.

An AIG rumor caused some panic, but it was denied. I don't like AIG and don't trust them, so think there might be something smoldering there. I shorted a bit - not a lot - and will keep it until they report earnings. I also added to BAC, C and WB and started a position in CFC.

Oil is now at $92. Coal producer BTU is back to its recent highs at $55. I have a good bit of that for the long term.

I don't see anything new. The housing overcapacity will be worked off over a year. Markets will start to see that soon and then react up for a new bull leg. Market do anticipate events. I've lived through a housing downturn in the late 1980s. It has zero affect on almost all people who own homes as they never got the money from the paper gains and simply don't sell. If they do sell, they re-buy a home elsewhere for a net zero effect. Recent buyers who overleveraged can be hurt, as are speculators. Lenders can get hurt. That's it, though.

Gold is at $780; silver is over $14. I think physical demand of both is creating a long term bull market in my view. Big swings occur as beefers make dollar related trades, but the trend is up. I have big positions in both in the Krypto Fund - 10% of my invested assets.

PS: CFC reported good numbers and guidance so the stock is up $3 premarket. Out of respect for the trading gods, I flipped my position. I am sure I would be punished severely if I held long term. I also covered the AIG short - I just don't feel like playing that game now.

26 comments:

mfl59 said...

CFC fine call bunkerman....you must have known that Angelo could deliver the goods

Spin-em said...

congrats B !!!!

maverick said...

hurry B'man "bank" that gain

Bunkerman said...

Tough for me to sell that so fast, but certainly tempting. Hmmm the dividend is 4.6% on yestereay's close. IF they can hit their numbers and make $2 next year ...

Oh boy, I'll surely be severely punished if I don't sell that. Holding would be such hubris.

Bunkerman said...

I sold it.

I respect the trading gods.

Bunkerman said...

I just figured that 50% of book was reasaonable. And the stock was back to it's pre-bubble levels and was "worth" that at least.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...nothing wrong with makeing a few to take them...you old beefer you...where are you stomping for water next? :)

Bunkerman said...

covered AIG, too. No reason, just didn't want to play it now.

mfl59 said...

bunkerman...virtual indeed

Bunkerman said...

Much credit goes to a friend who reads but doesn't post here who mentioned it to me. I did some research & liked it. So all the credit isn't mine. I can still learn - not too old for that.

Frosty said...

BAC sold 48.40...AIG hedge stopped, not going in naked in front of the fed.

Frosty said...

BAC...back in at 47...virtual fin bull indeed...46.50 looks like a near term floor...warm up the chopper ben.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh. Anyone paying $5,000 to drive a fast car has too much money. What a waste!

Bunkerman said...

that is, to drive it one day.

Bunkerman said...

the press will really go nuts when oil gets close to $100

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...oil going to par, but the OIH looks like it wants to rollover...out of oil service and defend the fins to hold old the spiders up...I shorted the OIH just in case we live to see the light of day monday.

Frosty said...

I also paired that BAC with some darkside PHM...feeling like a dirty old beefer...I need a shower.

Frosty said...

now I know how MLF59 feels...you are evil mr hunt.

Bunkerman said...

I just like the deep water drillers: GSF, DO, RIG, NE. The others face lower possible discoveries in the US ansd weakness in gas drilling.

The rollover in these above is just the beefers rotating, shorting OIH.

Bunkerman said...

I think you should feel dirty frosty - all that "pairing" off on ;-)

Frosty said...

Bunkerman..that's not dirty...dirty is buying CFC on the breakout over the day high...actually 16, but added up ever .25 to 16.75...took 75% at 17.20...will let it ride...now that is dirty :)

Frosty said...

PHM added some more darkside 15 to balance those fins a touch.

Bunkerman said...

I guess the beefers are covering more fin shorts. Short interest in those must be huge.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...super week young man...virtual or not, you provide some helpful stuff...malted beverages on me.

Spin-em said...

frosty like QB Liz Hasselback with those audibles today...congrats and thank youuuuuuuuu

Spin-em said...

15/8...

DIA 139.01

SPY 154.25

IWM 82.22

Q's 54.189(long 53.65)

SPY,IWM on watch