Red Sox Win !!! Yayyyyy !!!
O'Neal out at Merrill Lynch !!! Yayyyyy !!! Finally a CEO pays for failure.
Gold at $795. Oil over $93. Asia and Europe up.
I thought that I should update on my Alpha Fund holdings. I've sold a bit to cut my overall exposure as the gains got that fund outsized. Strategically, I like to have low or no margin debt near highs, and increase margin debt on dip buys of new stocks or adds.
Here it is, with group weights and positions with largest few listed first:
Select small caps: 0% - I sold EDU in the Alpha fund - too soon. My Mom's account still has it, though as I like it. I just had to made some choices.
Select big caps: 5% - BNI, DOW
Technology: 12% - AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL. I sold a bit of ORCL after earnings as I had long term gains.
Financials: 22% - BAC, WB, C, JPM
India: 4% - HDB, IBN, SAY. I'll sell SAY when it has LT gains treatment in mid November.
Energy: 38% - DVN, CVX, XOM, COP, CHK, SU, BTU, HES, MRO, VLO, NOV, DO, GSF, RIG, NE.
Miners: 19% - PCU, BHP, RTP, RIO, AA, CCJ, FCX.
My recent adds were BNI (a new buy) and some BAC, WB and C.
My Alpha Fund is still too large. The daily swings are quite large and I need to cut down the size more. I had sold a lot in September, but need to cut back more. I just pick stocks that qualify for LT gains treatment. So I've trimmed a lot of quite large positions in every group. I'll just pick away at these. Recent sales were CLF, some SAY, EDU (darn), and some SU and some BHP.
The Alpha Fund is at an all-time high as of Friday. The financials are not contributing to gains yet. I think they will perform well as the housing problem works it way out of the mess and the Fed lowers rates more.
PS: I went to buy a Mac 24" computer Saturday - they were sold out. I guess I have to wait a couple weeks. But the store was really packed. Obviously business is good.
PPS: Word of the Day - "adduce", a $10 transitive verb meaning "offer as an example, reason, or prof in discussion or analysis" or "cite as an instance or as proof or evidence". I've been unable to remember that word for 35 years. The handwriting in my card file for it is very old. Here's a sentence: "Bunkerman adduces the current real rate of interest and the low year-over-year inflation rate to infer the Fed will cut the overnight funds rate Wednesday by at least 25 bps."
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6 comments:
15/8...
DIA 139.01
SPY 154.25
IWM 82.22
Q's 54.189(long 53.65)
SPY,IWM on watch
Hmmm gold $797 and no one's noticing. Interesting.
Silver over 14.50, too. A couple closes over $15 would signal a breakout to recent era blue skies.
Bunkerman...25 bps may not feed the k-9 unit...the common man should show some caution as the beefer bear will launch an attack given the sell the earnings news behaivor we have seen...50 bps and we get a fair fight is my thought...numbers are likely to come down during Q4, hardly a reason to push new highs...market reaction thoughts please.
I think 50 is the correct move, but fear a bit they might be timid.
I expect the bears to attack in either case, but will be repelled.
Seasonal real buying will hurt the bears.
I think the market will soon focus - or is now focusing - on 2008 numbers and the recovery from the housing-induced slowdown.
So weak Q4 numbers are less important. Stocks will trade off 2008 numbers.
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