Causes of War

As a long term investor, one has to be aware of major risks. War is a huge risk. I have been reading the fine book - Europe: A History by Norman Davies - and just finished the part on World War I. The New York Stock Exchange was closed for months after that war began. Prices at first collapsed, but soon a great bull market began in US stocks.

So I started thinking about the principal war risks the world is subject to now. I came up with three, but a friend pointed out that I missed a major one. First I need to review the common causes of major wars.

I. "Man makes war not out of hate and aggression but out of devotion to irreconcilable values" - so said Herodotus in general terms [source: Great Ideas of Philosophy, Part 1 notes page 22, a course on CD]

II. Revolutionary totalitarianism in one state leads to wars of expansion in furtherance of the ideology. I've written much about this here.

III. The powerful state strives to subject or feed on the weaker state for simple power or economic gain. This can lead to a small war or a big war if the weaker state has a big, powerful ally.

How does this work in practice ?

American Revolution - that's type I as I've written in the past.

War of 1812 - type III that didn't work for Great Britain.

American Civil War - ditto, type I.

Mexican & Spanish American Wars - type III

World War I - type III per Austria-Serbia, but Serbia had a big friend, Russia; and Belgium had big friend, Britain.

World War II - Type II in Europe, and type III in the Pacific [US was pressuring Japan re China war leading to Pearl Harbor]

Cold War - type II

Korea and Vietnam - Vietnam War - combination of type II and type III with South Korea and South Vietnam having the big friend, the US.

First Gulf War - type III with perhaps a bit of type II

Second Gulf War - this appears to not fit the typology, being a preemptive war to avoid a wider much conflict that might have occurred if Saddam had obtained nuclear or poison gas weapons and attacked or threatened Israel leading to nuclear retaliation or preemption. So it has characteristics of all three types of causes.

So these three types of wars work pretty well, in my humble opinion, in explaining most conflicts of the past 250 years in which the US has been involved.

Future War Risks (these are my ideas):

A. China might become more militaristic and nationalistic, invade Taiwan with big friend, the US, leading to a major type III war.

B. Russia might become more nationalistic and militaristic, and attempt to pressure states on its periphery, which now have a big friend, the US and perhaps the EU, leading to a type III war.

C. Muslim fanaticism in Iran might precipitate a major type I war, with nuclear war with Israel leading to a much wider conflagration. Or a new Muslim caliphate as envisioned by bin Laden is somehow created leading to major type II wars as it seeks to expand.

Here's the one I missed: the great power of the US might be misused by its leaders in trying to "butt in" and impose its views [economic or political or other] on numerous other states, leading to a coalition war against the US. This would be analogous to the Peloponnesian War. The powerful Athenian democracy intervened in many minor conflicts that culminated in a number of city states led by Sparta banding together to defeat Athens before it became too dominant. This is a composite type I and type III war.

I hope future US leaders show a bit more restraint in being the world's policeman. Live & let live might be a good motto for first principles in world affairs.

PS: The Serbia+Bosnia+Kosovo war was obviously a Type I war.

PPS: Poverty is not a cause of war, but it does help create victims for Type III aggression wars.