Friday, December 7, 2007

The Past, the Present and the Future

Today is December 7. That date in 1941 was a Day of Infamy, as the military empire of Japan executed a surprise attack on the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. That evil, expansionist empire was crushed and destroyed. That was a win.

The US ended the war inarguably the most powerful nation on earth with sole possession of decisive atomic weapons and an industrial & scientific base undamaged - even revitalized - by the war. What did it do ? Help create peace and prosperity for others.

The US proceeded to work to create international institutions to help the world develop peacefully and helped the world recover [Bretton Woods monetary agreement, the World Bank and the IMF ]. After few years the US devoted huge resources to preventing another evil, expansionist ideological power - Soviet and World Communism - from seizing power worldwide. In 1991 Soviet Communism, the heir of Bolshevism, collapsed. That's a win.

Today I read the IMF has become ... redundant. So many developing nations have strong economies and bulging reserves that its advice and loans are not needed. And I hear on Worldwide Exchange this AM early from a ... Frenchman ... that the US economy is much less a factor worldwide now. That's significant since it's not from a US bull trying to rationalize his posture, but from a disinterested money manager focusing on the entire world. So the postwar effort has worked. That's a win.

I foresee Asia developing into self-supporting consumer driven economies and Europe living peacefully without internal wars and conflict and becoming a peaceful United States of Europe overtime.

There are major risks and minor conflict points, but overall it's a win. The belated W strategy in Iraq is winning ... finally he did what was obvious four years ago. If he had listened to Bunkerman [and not McNamara ...oops, Rumsfeld], that war would have been over in 2004. Perhaps he will apply this strategy to Afghanistan and finally win that one, too.

So perhaps the US should soon declare victory and go home to live in peace. Let's not make the mistake of the Athenians and keep sticking our nose into others' business. The big problems are solved. Live & let live, I say. Europe and other peaceful nations seem to want to be a more positive international force now. Perhaps the US should step back and let them.

The world is on a positive, morally good trajectory with improving freedom and economic conditions for the people of the earth. Let's just let it stay on that path.

Uh ... yes, I am very optimistic ;-)

PS: I'm not saying disarm. A powerful military is a guaranty of peace. There will always be evil people & groups. Speak softly and carry a big stick.

PPS: I'd like to see the jobs number come in between 50K and 100K. I am very long & strong.

15 comments:

Fibo said...

NICE Blog :)

Bunkerman said...

thanks.

Bunkerman said...

jobs up 94K - good number.

Bunkerman said...

I'd like to see the Fed to 50 bps on the overnight rate and 100 bps on the discount rate to get both to 4% which is about the 10 year Treasury rate.

This jobs number increases that likelihood they will do my bidding ;-)

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...jobs a little hot for 50 bps perhaps, but the discount window may be more important...paulson just lowered rates 100's of bids for 1.2 million home owners could also be a factor...either way think we could see some bumps, sell the news type thing, but for the most part the bulls should have the range to rome hihger until 12/21 ops expo.

Bunkerman said...

golly frosty, you sure have a long term mindset ;-)

Bunkerman said...

25 lower on the overnight and 75 lower on the discount rate would be OK for now.

Rcession mongers slowly capitulate, bears are liquidated slowly and we grind higher until April to 1700 S&P.

Bunkerman said...

uh ... with Bunkerman's stocks leading ;-)

Bunkerman said...

One has to have a plan to see it come together ->

Hannibal Hayes – The A Team

“I just love it when a plan comes together”

Bunkerman said...

trannies are getting some traction. I like & own BNI and YRCW.

Frosty said...

MLF59...thinking we should grab the natty here under ung 35...we can conrner the crack spread later...what say you sir?

Frosty said...

Bunkeramn...UNG I see it going to par in future...time frame indeed :)

Bunkerman said...

agree frosty, but the losses on the UNG rolls make it tought to hold LT. Ditto USO. Better to own the stocks.

Bunkerman said...

I'll be in Vegas Monday thru Thursday next week. No guest blog unless frosty wants the forum.

I plan to hit the craps tables and the blackjack with my "reduced variance mathematically minimal losses" betting strategy, so have many hours of enjoyable "action" :-)

If Mrs. B takes her laptop, I'll post. Otherwise I'll be computerless.

I figure today and Monday are consolidation & waiting for Ben to get on the team. If the fed does what I say they should, we should be OK and the bull market can resume.


By the way, the invese H&S bottom was confirmed and measures to about the old highs around 1575 for the S&P cash.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...have a safe and fun filled trip...if you post I'll stop in to say hi, if not just relax and have a good time.