Up in the morning and what do I see,
Euro stocks cratering, A to Zeee.
That's a re-write of a cadence - aka a "Jody Call" - I like to run while listening to tapes of those on my elliptical machine. Running to military cadences is entertaining and fun, and helps maintain a positive spirit, which is important for a long, "boring" run.
I guess the Euro rich & powerful have a similar manic depression that the US ruling classes have. Hmmm, a bear market worldwide with no recession and minimal inflation. Wierd. I suppose these conditions happen, as human mass delusions can persist a long time. I wonder if there are any lithium stocks ? [joke]
So I read the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal online and found some interesting facts.
From FT:
[A survey of small US companies]
" More than half of the senior executives surveyed – up 10 per cent from 2007 – said globalisation had neither lowered their costs nor improved their margins, while the proportion of respondents moving production or services offshore had declined by 20 per cent during the past year.
" 'The global playing field is different today than it was even a year ago,” said Tom Murphy, the report’s main author. “The savings you generate by producing products with lower labour costs are more than eaten up by the higher energy costs to transport it back to the US.'
" Nevertheless, those companies with a global strategy reported on average a 4 per cent higher gross margin."
Is this not good for jobs in the US ? Less transferrence of jobs overseas ? Hence good for the common man ?
From FT:
"The biggest hedge funds are on a hiring binge, taking advantage of cutbacks at investment banks to recruit star traders, senior executives and whole teams to help them expand."
So they blow up the big investment banks, losing everything "made" in several years, and now go on to hedge funds. I guess the next "leg" will be hedge fund blow-ups next year. Why does anyone pay a "trader" anything? " In the "old" days, trading was simply a necessary service to help distribute new issues. It's become a "profit center", which is a mistake. "Trading" is truly a zero sum game.
From WSJ:
" Production at Mexico’s Cantarell oil complex, one of the world’s largest, has plummeted by a third in the past year, an indication the country could lose self-sufficiency in oil in the medium term.
" Average daily production dropped to slightly more than 1m barrels a day in May compared with more than 1.6m b/d in the same month last year, according to the energy ministry."
That is a fact to buttress the conspectus on oil prices in yesterday's blog.
From WSJ:
" Home buyers are having a tougher time getting mortgages as lenders feel the squeeze from defaults. IndyMac Bancorp Inc., a big mortgage lender during the housing boom, said Monday it will stop making most types of home loans.
" IndyMac specialized in loans for borrowers who didn't fully document their income or assets.
Another competitor of my big commercial banks bites the dust.
From WSJ:
" Many small banks launched just a few years ago are struggling to become profitable and could be forced to sell themselves."
Ditto above comment.
From WSJ:
" The derivatives arm of NYSE Euronext, Liffe, will offer to provide centralized clearing for dealers that trade European credit-default-swap indexes, a move that could help insulate individual firms from losses."
I guess they read this blog, too.
From WSJ:
" The European Central Bank's decision to raise its key interest rate was a signal to wage negotiators that it will keep inflation under control, Luxembourg Finance Minister and Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said."
That's the best explanation I've read for why the ECB raised rates, viz. to keep the wages of the Euro-common man under control.
From WSJ:
" On Monday, a Lehman Brothers report said accounting rule changes could force Fannie and Freddie to raise tens of billions of dollars in new capital. Few expect Washington officials to let that happen, because the changes would make it difficult for the companies to buoy the housing market. The Lehman analyst agreed, saying, 'We cannot imagine such an outcome occurring.' But the report served as a fresh reminder of the thin layer of protection the two companies have against new losses, and helped send the shares downward."
Hmmm, the analyst can't imagine his conclusion is correct but writes it anyway ? Why ? I wopnder if LEH was short those two companies securities in any manner ? Nahhh ... there's a Chinese Wall. Suuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrreee there is. Not!
Word of the Day
"Cacogenics" - noun [$100] (used with a singular verb)
Cacogenics is a synomym for dysgenics, meaning the study of the operation of factors that cause degeneration in offsrping.
Sentence: I wonder if there are books about intellectual cacogenics that might explain why the level of American public discourse has fallen so much since the 1970s.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
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61 comments:
'be careful what you wish for'
the Bman's wishes of hedge funds blowing up have come true in 2008......they have gotten demolished
and guess what else happened? the stock market has gotten crushed
'real buyers'
more like real pussies
billions and billions in hedge fund buying power has evaporated......there is no one left to take stocks higher
PS......i heard real buyers have big bids in for C and BAC
unfortunately for longs the bid for C is at 7 and for BAC is 11
american banks are a sham
their balancs sheets are a house of cards
their income statements are a ponzi scheme
armageddon is coming
Indy mac goin out of business is good for the large american banks
huh?????
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
oh yeah........they will gain market share
100% of zero is.......uh.....zero
uh Bud ... people will always need homes. They aren't going to live in tents.
people have jobs ... home prices are much lower ... mortgage rates are low ...
this is as easy as male+female ... given a spark, it will happen.
Children of baby boomers are now in household formation ages.
people will buy homes and get mortgages ... from my banks.
But when ?
I've written my thinking ... time will tell.
"more like real pussies"
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooo
update from da front.
less people r losing their homes as the lenders do just about anything to keep these people in their homes.
prices are still plunging so there goes we bottomed in june thesis.
http://www.pickensplan.com/
this guy makes way too much sense, so no one in DC will listen. they might listen, but then take a bride on the backside. or they r just too dumb to understand the simplicity of the plan.
PLAY THIS GAME!
http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2008/06/Who-Killed-The-Economy
i did 20 times yesterday, becuase the brackets always switch.
elmer won everytime.
cody willard as one of the top 16 reasons the economy is in the tank. thats hillarious. he never managed more than 2 mil. and since he has been on fox, his hair says a lot. it says "im an idiot, dont listen to me"
i wud think jjc shud be in the top 16!
Office supplies retailer Office Depot Inc (NYSE:ODP - News) said its North American same-store sales fell nearly 10 percent in the second quarter, hit by a weakening U.S. economy.
ODP, unlike CC is a great place to shop, decent prices.
so still no stagflation?
then y the bear market? (cant all be becuase of the dark meat headed to washington avenue. oh did i mention, obama is a lock?!)
Problem with Pickens plan is that natural gas is mostly used for peak electricty generation.
But wind can't produce much peak power since it runs all the time at a low level.
And is not reliable enough for base power, as capacity must still be built for when it doesn't run.
So it really works best for running to charge batteries, make hydrogen from water, etc.
the SEC and FED to begin combining forces to fight potential landmines????????????????
this reminds me of the blockbuster bid for CC.
the SEC is retarded. THE fed is retarded.
the markets r a door knob.
anyone ever watch 2 retards try to fuck a door knob at the sametime?
its not pretty!
despite secular winds in our face.
despite 25% of americans being diabetic.
despite 75% of americans saying we are in a recession.
we still keep getting fatter and apparently more retarded.
ps. if FNM and Freddie were not in the same bracket as elmer, i always had fnm vs elmer in the finals.
FNM 15 bucks, even i never thought it wud get this bad.
bernanke says he a suggestion for congress.
i have one to. everyone in the house and senate, strap on a set of balls, man up, and RESIGN!
sorry bman.
pickens dwarfs your information and understanding of energy.
and pickens is a great american.
he is a billionaire, who is probably talking his book, but he still believes this is how america gets off the OPEC crack.
take away OPEC oil and afghany poppies, womens stupid desire for diamonds, and al queda dies fast!
uh ... making a Banzai charge is brave, but stupid.
Real buyers should be patient ... let the beefers get shorter and shorter.
Facts are facts, mern. Boone's wind can help, but indirectly.
I know a bit about electricity generation.
Jason Goepfort of sentimenttrader.com shows a chart that shows hedge funds have been quite net long equities for the last 3 months, their longest net long exposure in over 2 years.....
Notice all the crap about hydrogen miracles has "gone with the wind"
I wrote about that a lot in another "forum".
Wind helps ... but for base power, it's too unreliable. And can't do peak power.
Best to use it to make hydrogen for a transition to nuclear to make hydrogen.
Notice that Boone also said they need the "production tax credit" to be economical.
uh ... if beefers are more net long, then why is short interest increasing weekly ?
endless record levels.
Odd.
Just questioning ?
not sure bunkerman....id think etf's distort short interest figures a bit...but I'm just the messenger sir....I'm on Binky's side....
btw, house prices are NOT going down here.
I understand, mfl ... I appreciate the data point.
Just seemed odd.
I suppose derivatives might affect or even understate short interest, too.
ugh ... derivatives ... they need regulating bigtime.
;-)
thats one area of the country, and a very small one at that.
ex worden sees it in all 50 states.
facts r facts. less people losing their homes becuase the big banks already have more inventory than they ever imagined, and it needs to stop. so if that means, even taking a small loss on a home, they are doing it.
prices are sliding, seriously, 5 to 10% a month, in the hot zones. mid states, still going down. a few areas that didnt explode have stopped going down, but they are not moving up, and they are not selling.
oh, i looked at the blog yesterday. glad i passed on the cheese from bob. i spent yesterday moving cindy into her new apartment. man is my house empty, but i still got all the do ray me (or most of it).
then i played 9 holes with my boss. this was the first time we met, and you figure out where he is located.
i suggest reading my last post after i got home from last nite, and act accordingly.
off to heaven! any place is heaven but this house, right now.
354 times today I've heard "the oil bubble is bursting"....hmmmm
Hmmm:
Rate of Decline in Pending Home Sales Decelerating
The National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales declined 4.7% in May versus the April level, which was revised upward to reflect an increase of 7.1% (from 6.3%). The consensus forecast called for a 3.0% decline. On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales were down 14% in May. The 84.7 level for May is above the low of 83.0 seen this year in March and below the April high of 88.9, which suggests the home sales market is still weak, but not experiencing the same rate of deterioration we saw throughout 2007. To wit, the pending home sales level was at 101.5 in April 2007 and stood at 85.9 in December. Economists will use this report to set estimates for the existing home sales report for June, which will be released July 24.
This supports my June bottom thesis. Not proof, though. yet.
;-)
is this armageddon??
oil down $6 and market still can't rally? what say you bunkerman?
Binky is beside himself
Market need evidence of my thesis, that housing bottomed in June.
wait for earnings, etc.
Oil has gone down before only to roar back.
Patience.
beefer ping-pong is back!!!!!!
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooo
Imprisoned quarterback Michael Vick filed for bankruptcy protection while serving time for federal dogfighting charges, saying he owes between $10 million and $50 million to creditors.
Vick filed Chapter 11 papers in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Newport News on Monday. The seven largest creditors listed in the court papers are owed a total of about $12.8 million.
more solid evidence of a recession.....
come on real buyers.......show some pride
'real buyers'
lmaoooooooooooooooooooo
mike vick
typical black man......a thug and a criminal
go BIG JOHN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the diamond of bankers gonna move the fins...up bunky new poster boy...down, off with his head.
Bud how's the new membership at the country club treating you sir? Berate any waiters/caddies yet?
Bman sure is funny how he 'picks and chooses' his investment bankers
JPM is good......but GS are criminals as they gut their own beefer
huh????????????
they love me at the club.....they especially like my impersonation of.....
" Caution !! you are in the no spin zone !! "
PS.....just challenged a friend of mine to a match.....he's a 9 hcp.....straight up....no shots
i love the claw !!!!!!
hhhmmmm....what can I say to enrage bunky and send him off to sulk in the barn for some k-bar practice.
that's later, frosty ... gota clean another Thompson.
watching Dimon.
Uh Bud ... I just speak from my experience with the firms.
JPM good
GS bad
MER dumb; C dumb
BSC worst
simple.
diamond of bankers...not my fault,never has been, never will be, it's the goverment stupid...top to bottom at JPM...from ceo to tps writers...JPM a real gem.
thompson time up north, time to swing down south.
Spinny floating in the pool on a bitter summer day...bucket of rocks on staycation...wing bones piled high...perhaps the trade of the day.
bunk not to be a wise guy....but dont you own C?
BAC trading 70% of book...that 11% skim is dead dividend walking...the market has spoken, so shall it be.
uh.....what is the BAC book??
surely you're not takin it off yahoo finance
lmaooooooooooooooo
PS......oh wait.....frosty used to work at BAC.....makes him an expert
listen guys.......i hate to be so blunt......but i'm tryin to help you
American banks are a sham
they are going much much lower
whatever you think the book value is....multiply by 0.3
playing the club pro this afternoon heads up for big $...I just want to fit in...luv me.
uhgh yes I own C ... was seduced by the dark side ... it was "cheap" at mid 30s
ughhhhhhhhhhh
re BAC ... market speaks in many tongues.
Time will tell.
Tough for Lewis to say 4 weeks ago that dividend was "at this time" and then switch.
But ... not buying more.
no worries bunkerman....your time will come sir
'club pro'
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
SKF 163.59 dark just to spit Bud...breakeven stop...fear the claw grip.
Bud will you be having the beef wellington at the club afterwards? It is Tuesday sir...
guess hank Paulson reads this blog:
"Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks at the FDIC Forum on Mortgage Lending; says stable home sales indicate stabilizing demand"
all this talk about "raising capital" means crap unless the "capital" gets paid.
Cutting dividends kills that.
I don't see Paulson's "covered bond" idea working.
It's pointless.
Terms like prepayment risk, etc. kill it.
"this rally is an anticipation of Alcoa's earnings report"
well played sir...collect your paycheck and go f$%K yourself...
great F-N trade "Bob".....thank you sir
'time will tell'
that doesn't sound like the Bman
perhaps i been to harsh on him......but....facts are facts
the american finacial system is on the verge of collapse
"oh, i looked at the blog yesterday. glad i passed on the cheese from bob. i spent yesterday moving cindy into her new apartment. man is my house empty, but i still got all the do ray me (or most of it)."
Georgy..change your shirt..ya got chocolate ice cream all over your shirt..lmaoooooo
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