I thought I'd post a few relevant tidbits that I've read in the newspapers. On Saturday moring I read the "paper" newspapers from the week: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and Investors Business Daily. I read those newpapers online everyday.
Bulgaria has a shortage of workers. After years of labor migration out of Bulgaria, now that nation is trying to bring its diaspora home. Also, Bulgaria is bringing Vietnamese labor on a contract basis. This story meshes with one a few weeks ago that Polish skilled workers were returning to Poland as better opportunities were there. Eastern Europe is really a growth area with skilled and educated people. The true basis of a nation's wealth is its people - their education, skills and culture. Natural resources are a very distant second, as is location.
FDIC takes over IndyMac bank after a run on deposits began by a letter from Sen. Schumer. Now is really not the time to politicians to toss bombs. But IndyMac was headed for the graveyard anyway. Short term, the "sky is falling" crowd will screech aramgeddon and suggest that the FDIC might not have enough resources. Even though the 1990 commercial real estate mess proved in actuality such talk is wrong, persons seeking to create panic will try to use it.
Longer term, closing IndyMac just eliminates a big competitor to Bank of America [via Countrywide] and Wachovia [via Golden West] in mortgage origination. Those two banks should be able to raise prices and make more money long term. But I expect their stocks to be pummeled again by raiders. Doing nothing in Alpha Fund. It's performance has sucked and is embarrassing for me. Some day I'll post a litany of my errors for the past year ... they are runnig through my mind. WB is my biggest error.
Saddam's Iraq did have weapons materials. Recently 550 metric tons of uranium was taken from Iraq to Canada by the US military. This uranium was found in Iraq after the invasion. Why was it there ? Since Saddam's Iraq did not have nuclear power plants, there is only one reason: weapons of mass destruction. This also physically corroborates Saddam's confession that he was maintaining the foundations of a weapons program to speedily restore his program once sanction were dropped. So Bush was correct in toppling his government. QED.
But Bush's [and Rumsfeld's ] postwar strategy and tactics were completely wrong. The fact the US is still there proves that.
I guess Barron's reads this blog. Headline reads "Homes Prices Are About to Bottom". The article has lots of hard data to support the thesis. I'll write more on this later.
Re-Balance Trade
Krypto Fund spreadsheet says that I need to sell some gold & silver and buy Emerging Markets and REIT stocks. The gold & silve rallocation is now at 5.7% vs. its canonical 5% target. Emerging Markets and REITs are a bit too small. So Monday I'll sell some gold & silver ETF shares to buy Vanguard Emerging Markets and REIT funds.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
10 comments:
the fed needs to raise rates!
go back and look. all decade (at least 95% of the time) it has paid to fight the fed.
lowering rates did not ease the credit crisis and did not bring down mortgage. and it didnt stop the tape from plunging into a bear market.
if they hike rates, the $ will rip.
again everyone screaming about the oil bubble and speculators driving it up. i bet there is as much speculation on the darkside, and when it starts to go, they get squeezed making the move bigger.
if the fed hiked rates, the $ wud stabalize, oil wud probably find its floor around 125.
and id bet there just about no one long the greenback but i bet tons of beef is short the buck, and long the commodities.
it is going to take something volckeress to stop this snowball of stagflation.
still in the box on the 3rd plate appearance. looking like 2 balls and maybe a strike, but got digits.
once employment stabilizes or ticks up, and my housing bottom is proven, then I'm sure they will quickly go to 3%.
Dollar has been rather stable for a few months in 150-160 range.
it looks like another bear flag that is about to........well u know.
Cramer is a former hedge fund manager who delivered a compounded rate of return of 24 percent for 15 years at his firm, Cramer Berkowitz.
His investment advice is always very specific, and he is also clear about what he sees over the short term.
“Sell everything. Nothing’s working,” he writes.
“Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation, and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it,” said Cramer.
Barclays Capital agrees with Cramer’s assessment of inflation. It is now predicting that headline inflation will spike to 5.5 percent by August, and the Fed will respond by increasing interest rates six times before the end of 2009.
The Consumer Confidence Index is also near all-time lows.
oh boy even cramer is singing stagger lee. most of this is priced in, but we had the whoosh yesterday, then the rally, but the sellers came out again at the close.
imo, LEH bought by GS in next 10 days at 10 bucks.
mothership takes out WB for 10, as well, shortly.
remember the S&P retraced 50% after 2000. and that was mostly tech wreck. this is the fins and is far more serious.
what is the most insane is by 2003 if u didnt know FNM's were fried, that makes u retarded. ie everyone in DC is retarded!
yet frank raines is probably playing golf somewhere, armed with personal security.
he shud be rotting in jail, till death!
Barron's???? come on bunkerman...you can do better than that....those fools are journalists-not investors....they dont risk $1 on their ideas...they are still clamoring about $50 oil and a bottom in financials...as they have been for over a year....
mern I know you saw the highlights of Vai Sikahema knocking out Jose Canseco....that was pretty awesome...
die eagles die!
no that was the first i heard about it. but i "used the google" (lol, bush) and saw some articles but no videos.
thats hilarious!
clearly jose is off the juice
IndyMac Bank, closed Friday by federal regulators, will reopen Monday with a new charter and a new name -- IndyMac Federal Bank.
Analysts fear thousands of IndyMac customers could lose as much as $500 million.
Customers who found locked doors and armed guards Friday afternoon could use ATM cards over the weekend to get to their money, but an estimated 5 percent of the $19 billion deposited in the bank was not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
Indymac's failure, which the FDIC chairman said could add up to be the most expensive U.S. bank failure ever, came as the FDIC's list of "problem" institutions is on the rise.
The FDIC disclosed last month that it was closely watching 90 financial institutions on its "problem list," up from 76 in the first quarter of 2008. The total assets of "problem" institutions rose from $22.2 billion to $26.3 billion, the FDIC said.
i have a serious question. i probably paid closer attention to the economy in middle and hs that college becuase college was a 4 yr vacation. so i really dont remember the S&L crisis, but shit like this happen in 90-91.? i probably saw 50 dead shows in that span, and was in blackout both yrs, i think, i really cant remember.
well, mfl, normally I'd agree, but they did have data to support the headline - it wasn't just an analyst pump or a bunch of opinion.
in 1990-1991, hundreds of S&L went under - I think every bank in Texas did, too.
the total was hundreds of billions.
But is was commercial mortages then, so the idea was just foreeclose as fast as possible asn sell the properties to anyone who wanted them.
whats the tape gonna think of the FNM/FRE bailout?
wow
Post a Comment