Thursday, July 3, 2008

TGI ... T ?

Yes, since Friday is Independence Day and a major holiday in the US. I'm thinking about my BBQ plans: steaks (2" thick filets), Bunker beans, garlic bread, salad, apple pie, ale.

I have to take the Kelpies to a sheep herding class this morning. Sky continues to amaze his trainers - both say he's the best dog for his age they have every seen. He is now learning to respond to whistle commands, which is quite important since voices don't carry well in the wind and rain over 400 yards that can occur in a sheep herding trial. Sky has great "power" over the sheep - that is the ability to move even tough, hard sheep that have never seen dogs. Krypto continues to improve, too.

Markets

Yesterday afternoon was a fine example of beefer manipulations. On the day prior, stocks rose on real data about GM sales being better than expected. So the beefers get an analyst to pan GM late afternnon and simultaneously pump up oil prices while selling stock futures. And the computerized traders pile on. Sigh ...

Actually I think "they" were trolling for sell stops below the Dow "bear market" territory levels. One rule from my commodity trading days is that obvious levels for stops are almost always violated as local traders and trading funds seeking easy money from running the public's stop orders. Since the stock market is now dominated by trading funds, this behavior should not be surprising.

I am still working on my buy list. I made the money transfer this morning for a part of the new $$$, but the big new flow will be later in July. I have a few tentative buys in mind for Monday.

Inflation

Has anyone noticed that European stocks are being pummelled ? This morning - early - that is happening, too. This is a fine example of the effects of the ECB fighting the wrong war. They are expected to raise rates today to "fight inflation". Hmmm ... so they raise rates, which depresses the dollar, which in turn raises oil prices, which in turn raises headline Inflation ! D'uh !

I wonder why they think ECB interest rates can affect price increases in oil or food ? Of course, the ECB has no accountability to anyone, and even the EU itself is in tatters as the new treaty seems to be collapsing from a lack of public support.

PS: With existing economic weakness in southern Europe, I suspect major political crisis might occur if the ECB continues to be foolish and causes a recession in Europe ? With the EU already on the ropes, this is a concern.

Word of the Day

"Syncretism" - noun [$10]; "syncretize" - verb [$10]
Syncretism means 1. the combination of two different forms of belief or practice; 2. the fusion of two or more original different inflectionist forms.
Syncretize means to attempt to write and harmonize esp. without critical examination or logical unity.
Sentences: Bunkerman's political philosophy - populist libertarianism - is a practical syncretism of libertarianism, where freedom is maximized, with populism, where the ruling classes (aka rich and powerful) are restricted. Bunkerman syncretizes these two divergent philosophies into a whole by letting the populist component have just enough weight to prevent the ruling classes from creating a new aristocracy and harming the common man with their antics.

10 comments:

mern said...

I think a year of GDP growth below 1.5% would be "stagnation" ... but you still need some broad-based "inflation" outside of oil and food for "stagflation".

sir, may i suggest looking at a few articles on how much a new oil rig costs to build. is steel, concrete and other materials used to be an oil rig, FOOD or OIL?


downward revivsions to previous jobs reports, and another 60k lost.

mid cycle slowdown, housing has bottomed, core is right.

or this is stagflation and we pricing in the dark meat, as a shoe in november.

well looking at the charts, its pretty obvious, this is not a mid cycle slowdown, core is not right, or we wudnt be in a bear market.

that being said, even i feel like most of this junk is priced in.

bud who you gonna give money to next? i can short that with my bookie.

;-)

Frosty said...

Bunky and bunky boys...have a great holiday weekend...rest up, real buyers looking for a reason, tons of tinder, we rack the bear next week.

mfl59 said...

mern the dow is up 100....this is a bull mkt sir

Spin-em said...

pass the Bunker beans and an ale....Enjoy the time off guys...get rid off the claw bud.....good luck down there merny...suck on it France

God bless the U.S.AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

lool

Bunkerman said...

uh ... if there is "inflation", why are 10 year US Treasuries at 4% ?

Which market do you want to believe, either or both or none ?

Bunkerman said...

Enjoy the long weekend.

Perfect weather here: sunny warm breezy.

mfl59 said...

enjoy the weekend men....forget about this market for awhile.....bunkerman may I suggest some buffalo burgers for the bbq....very tasty...quite healthy...

mern said...

Has anyone noticed that European stocks are being pummelled ? This morning - early - that is happening, too. This is a fine example of the effects of the ECB fighting the wrong war. They are expected to raise rates today to "fight inflation". Hmmm ... so they raise rates, which depresses the dollar, which in turn raises oil prices, which in turn raises headline Inflation ! D'uh !


um didnt the $ rally over 1% today becuase the ECB raised rates and now it is expected we mite actually do something other than jaw bone?

of course they wont, not in a election yr. not that it matters, the GOP is going to get decimated in November.

i aint happy about it, but it as obvious as predicting the credit crisis.

interesting in the economist, seems like obama leaning on some righties to his economic team.

i really hope he is just preaching wind fall taxes, to get votes.

this is going to be a landslide similiar to 1984 when reagan kidded the shit out of that guy who graduated from swarthmore.

just got back from super TGT. they have stopped taking certain coupons becuase people r conterfeiting coupons for 2 and 3 bucks, off certain items.


so the layman still sees no wage growth and prices escalating so fast they cant believe their eyes. heard a mom complaining that milk just went up 40 cents vs yesterday.

i suppose if you strip out oil, food, steel, concrete, health care, education, wood, natty gas, plastics, rubber, gold and silver, core is probably spot on.

does the new strain contain ether?

peace

mern said...

Buffett: Persistent Stagflation Ahead


The U.S. economy suffers from stagflation that’s going to get worse and may not end this year or even next, says investment icon Warren Buffett.

Persistent Stagflation Ahead

Persistent Stagflation Ahead

Persistent Stagflation Ahead

Persistent Stagflation Ahead

Persistent Stagflation Ahead


lol

Bunkerman said...

If we are using the "ethos" arguments [aka rely on character], I'll stick with Battleship Ben.

Hmm milk is a food, isn't it ?

I guess the decline in SUV prices will lower core CPI now.

;-)