I found a reference to data that I've been wondering about for awhile. I no longer have direct access to it, being "semi-retired". This is the mortgage servicer data on delinquencies and defaults from the actual trusts that own those mortgage loans to homeowners. That is hard data. So yesterday I found a reference by a "controversial" bank stock analyst [ see http://bankstocks.com/ July 29 post by Tom Brown]
"Data in the monthly mortgage services reports continues to get better. Last Friday, mortgage servicers released data regarding performance of securitized assets, through June 30th. The reports continue the trend we’ve talked about for months: a slowdown in the inflow of new problem loans, and lower roll rates into late-delinquency buckets. Fewer near-term delinquencies means lower chargeoffs down the road. Our conclusion (again): the pig (bad loans) is steadily working its way through the python.
"All this should give investors confidence that the extremely high forecasts for losses from subprime mortgage loans, second mortgage loans, even Alt-A mortgage loans are excessive."
This supports the housing bottom that I've theorized for occuring now. Time will tell.
Chief dark side oracle Meredith is still a proud bear, says more capital to be raised by many banks. I think she's just wrong now and can't change as her career depends on further disaster. I also suspect she's trying to give her beefer masters a more profitable exit. She was completely wrong last quarter about the big banks. Versus this blog, she was defeated 4-1. Even her win, a bad quarter for WB, cost the shorts money. When one can't value stocks and give clients good calls at insane prices like July 15, even saying to short more ... at the bottom ... one has to wonder what rationality is left there now.
Gosh, another guy on CNBC reads this blog: he's talking about some banks being able to make better loans at higher spreads and profits as the competition from the IndyMac's and other mortgage brokers is now gone.
Alpha Fund is now 144% long, having added DVN and CVX at great prices at yesterday's open. I still have some room for more RIG, DVN and CVX, but will wait. I also wait for further dips in AAPL and GOOG.
PS: Gasoline demand was up a bit last week vs. the prior weeks. Whether this is some pent-up demand or just gasoline retailers buying big on the dip in prices, time will tell. Year over year demand is still down a good bit.
PPS: An erudite non-posting reader disagreed with my explanation of the meaning of the usage of "Absolutely" instead of "Yes", saying it affects a California-esq perkiness. I thought it over and perhaps that is true for many users thereof, BUT I still think that Babblevision users in suits are trying to appear intelligent, when they are mostly imbeciles.
P^3S: I forgot to post that I also made modest adds to BA, IR and ITW. As mentioned befor e, I consider these stocks one "position" in an export+industrial stock. About 1/2 full now.
Word of the Day
"Nonino" - exclamation [$1000] used often in Shakespeare; see also Nonny-No, Nonne and Nonni-no and Nonny-nonny. Obsolete, archaic.
Nonino means a meaningless refrain, formerly used to cover indelicate allusions.
Sentence: When Bill Clinton gave that famous hug to Monica Lewinsky, she showed a contented smile with her lips, perhaps remembering ... nonino.
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56 comments:
oh no Bman !!!!!
today was the first ever post by you that i skipped and went directly to 'word of the day'
why?? tom brown......he is the absolute worst....atrocious....horrid.....hideous.....horrendous
my gardener knows more about the banking sector than tom brown
barack obama sure is arrogant and cocky
this from the washington post yday
Inside, according to a witness, he told the House members, "This is the moment . . . that the world is waiting for," adding: "I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions."
wow......thank you lord.....for sending us barack obama.......what we do without him?????
i love how people in the Obama-nation talk like America is a failed state
we have some here too that think america's best days are behind it.......always pissing and moaning and whining and complaining
pfffffffffffffffft
America was a great country before Obama was born and it will be even greater after he is dead
put that spook on a ship back to Africa if he hates it here so much
In his new song “Politics: Obama Is Here,” rapper and staunch Barack Obama supporter Ludacris trashes presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain and former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton.
“Hillary hated on you, so that b—- is irrelevant. … McCain don’t belong in any chair unless he’s paralyzed. Yeah I said it cause Bush is mentally handicapped,” Ludacris sings.
this may be a first but..................
I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING BUD HAS SAID TODAY
well, the data is the data re Tom Brown. Tought to argue with numbers.
Sheesh, that's a telling quote re Obama. Hubris.
no wonder he sought that adoration from the Europeans.
Ok ok guys, I changed the adjective re Tom Brown to "controversial" from "good" ... heck I just started reading his site after the Barron's article came out.
good GDP number +1.9%
stagflation on hold
re jobless claims, this is layoff season ... waiting
Bud I played with a guy who employed the "claw" yesterday....the freaking guy made everything...it was absurd...
how can a "revision" change the Q4 number so much [ +0.6% to -0.2% ] ... very strange.
'the claw' is awesome
i feel so much more confident when i putt now
my yhoo handicap index shud drop just like tom browns stock picks......single digits soon
good GDP number +1.9%
stagflation on hold
thats not early thats just wrong.
gdp 1.9% and cpi 5%.
and i whoever was saying the 4th q and 1st q wud be revised to negative, and then the recession wud be over, before it is even declared. may want to read this nuggett.
The Commerce Department also revised the fourth quarter 2007 reading to -0.2%, the first reading below zero since the 2001 recession.
there is no way the economy is growing if u back out the deficit spending, and that money is being pissed away, not invested.
bud the roman empire went up and then down, so did the mayans. y cant this country? what an elitist u r, to think some of things u have uttered this am.
ive said it before and ill say it again. u r so much like barrack, its scary. u just need a fro, and bigger ears.
there is no doubt in my mind hillary is not a gud person. and she all but endorses infidelity, a fine example for the younger women out there. all while barrack is no teddy kennedy, and in fact not even close to having the credentials to be president, neither does big mac. but both r better than mush.
and arent u the one who said the president cant fix the problems anyway, so y do u even give a shit?
i dont. i just have my bet on barrack as i have had since feb. 100 to win 485.
this country needs a jesse ventura, and a congress that isnt owned by lobbyists.
and if u dont think china is lapping us in the race for world power lets just look at the kids. in first grade they are doing algebra. here, in the 1st grade, they r reading a duck is a duck, and trying out to be the next miley cyrus or michael jordan. so in 20 yrs, china will have about 70 million scientist hitting the job market. we will have maybe 5 million, and another 20 million retards that think the world owes them a living.
one of my favorite videos is "downhill from here" june 1990, GD at alpine valley. the title was accurate becuase after that tour, it was down hill fast, for jerry.
im just merny being merny. send me to green bay, straight up for favre.
whens BAC going to fill that gappa ???..lol
" a fine example for the younger women out there"
BLACK KETTLE ALERT!!!!
BLACK KETTLE ALERT!!!!
BLACK KETTLE ATERT!!!!
what do you care?
lol
Thursday, July 31, 2008
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that Barack Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%.
Chicago PMI Reflects Expansion
The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index jumped to 50.8 in July from 49.6 in June. That was ahead of the consensus estimate of 49.0. Notably, a number above 50 conveys a state of expansion
which BAC gap you talkin about? i can't see it on the chart
BAC really needs to get thru 34
where is ops expo??
he is our resident BAC analyst........i think he went to soccer camp
f'ng queer
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Thirty percent (30%) of conservative Democrats say they’re voting for John McCain. Rasmussen Reports data also shows the Republican hopeful picking up support from 19% of White Democrats and 15% of Democrats over the age of 50. These results are from national telephone survey interviews conducted with 14,000 Likely Voters during the two weeks ending July 24. The sample includes 5,074 Democratic voters
at least Obama doesn't sell us that 'crap' that he's gonna be a uniter
'ill get votes from democrats republicans and independents'
pffffffffffffffft
he can't even f'ng unite the democratic party
anyone have michelle obama's phone number??
my laundry is piling up
sounds like someone has a case of the mondays.
;-)
re BAC 22.50
President Bush hailed a new "degree of durability" in security gains in Iraq Thursday, saying it should permit him to announce further U.S. troop reductions later this year....
4 more years!!!!
Bunky Election Headquarters
Bama 1
BIG JOHN 8
USAUSAUSA
PS.....nonposters???? (they hold the key)lol
I see jimmie's boy jimmie has called the bottom and declared the bear market over...time to load up I guess...
loooooool non-posters
i hope they don't object to my ethnic slurs
that 30% of conservative dems are in the south.............
no way they are voting for the dark one
my guess is that non-posters would break strongly, but not unanimously, for Big John.
this blog may have more readers than we think
PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%.
go BIG JOHN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bunks blog is a great value for ad $$...rated among the top 3 in invisible eyeballs......
'invisible eyeballs'
that was mean
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
come on....it wasnt meant to be meant....lol
Ill learn to spell...pffttt
Hmmm ... looks like Obama to become a main theme for the Word of the Day.
For tomorrow for sure.
Now, c'mon ... did not today's usage for "nonino" bring a memory and smile to all ? Monica in that jaunty beret giving Bill a big hug ?
'word of the day' is great.........that shud help increase the eyeballs
but any more mentions of tom brown........and readership will plummett
hmmm copied from a "controversial" site:
"Here’s a highly encouraging headline from Bloomberg:
“California's Discount Foreclosure Sales Point to Housing Bottom.” A bottom? Bloomberg may be on to something. It reports that home sales in California rose for three consecutive months starting in April. That’s the first time that’s happened in 30 months. Economy.com’s Mark Zandi says the news “signals the beginning of the end.”
Why the strength in sales? Banks have finally figured out that they need to cut prices big time to unload foreclosed properties, so prices are off anywhere from 40% to 60% or more from their peaks in markets with high foreclosure rates. Foreclosures accounted for 75% of homes sales in Merced County in June, 72% in Stanislaus County, and 66% in San Joaquin County. ``Half off in a decent neighborhood is close to the bottom,'' says PIMCO’s Bill Gross. Buyers are often investors who pay so lttle they can rent out properties for 10% of the purchase price. Inventory statewide is down to 7.7 months, from 10.2 months a year ago. ``We've found the bottom,'' says the head of one local broker. ``The financial institutions have seen the light and are allowing the market to find its own level.''
Even Karl Case, he of the Case-Shiller home price index so beloved of the bears, allows that “things are beginning to happen.”
So sales are up, inventories down, and prices stabilizing—albeit at low levels. That’s what the end of a long slide figures to look like. . .
Hmmm T. B. 's sidekick, Vernon Hill, is dumping on my WM speculation.
WM has been a great trade.......thank you
hmm but WM getting positive action ... guess you guys are right about that site's "picks" being s%$#.
But it does give me data.
gimme data ... .gimme data.
Maybe a rock & roll song ?
WM up 50% since fri Bunky blog mention.....thanks Bob/Bunk....I mean Jim.....6k
C'mon Jamie ... your point is 8 ... gimme a hard 8 !!!
it was really frosty's idea ... I just put some flesh onto it.
the BLS, now says after what 5 revivisions GDP contracted in the 4th q. only took 6 months for them to figure that out.
is the BLS living in a bunker?
who was it that predicted around now, we wud be finding out we were in a recession a about 6 months ago?
the prediction was the BLS will declare a recession, after it is already over. we just need that 1st q to be negative.
negative GDP, and high inflation.
stagflation, i guess not.
lets see if i can pull a clemens and invent a new word on the fly like "misremember"
contrasuperflation (economy contracting while inflation sky rockets)
the bls, pfffffft
core is ok, pce is fine.
tell that to the common man. they response will be "r u insane or just so rich u dont feel it?"
yesterday i speculated that the 44 lb cat that was found, was a casualty of the bad economy. feed my cat or gas up. i was right. lady lost her home.
mid cycle slowdown.
id hate to see a recession, if this is a mid cycle slowdown.
Is Manny a Pirate yet?
youre right Bud...merny's posts are lonnng...Id believe him with a short sentence...lol
beeks leak the jobs report?
after a 6 pack and a bag of chips with alestra......... i leak, wet, burpy farts.
yes ladies im single!
probably not for long.
non posters send me your pics
ROFLLLLLL
lmaooooooooo
Cell phone calls on airplanes in flight are not only unsafe, they're obnoxious and they should be permanently banned, according to some members of Congress.
House members, most of whom board airplanes almost every week, traded horror stories Thursday about their worst experiences with annoying fellow passengers who talk loudly on cell phones before takeoff and after landing. One lawmaker said his wife sat next to a woman who loudly discussed her sex life on the phone.
OMG R they serious? WTF do they care? dont they have real stuff to tackle.
reminds me of the time i was at u penn, after they corked my moms aneurysm. the doctor was explaining to me, her brother and his dumb ass 2nd wife.
"well she had 3 strokes after we corked her. she is on life support, the next two weeks are going to be really tough. we need this to happen, and that to happen, and a few miracles. any questions?"
dumb ass jenny
"ok, but her temperature is like 101, dont u find that concerning?"
the doctor and i locked eyes and both of us just wanted to smack her.
that is what congress is doing with clemens, spygate, cell phones. majoring the minors. just because some congress people get annoyed with people on planes they gonna make it illegal.
what about the 500 billion deficit, isnt that a tad more pressing?
WTF!
Joe Torre knows what Manny can do.....lol
peter gammons saying that terry lost 15 lbs becuase of the manny stress.
sounds like he was worse for that locker room than TO was for the birds.
looking at how much the sox ate on that deal, it must have been awful.
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