Return to the 1920s

I am not writing about 1920s stock manipulation in this post. That exists now thanks to big money pools - aka hedge funds - and the knaves/fools at the SEC, but it is just one element of modern life that derives from the modern American society that was created post World War I by our grandparents and great grandparents. By that time, electricity was nationwide, as was phone service and the automobile; movies and radio existed. Modern American culture began then and in its major structures still exist in those forms. One can see this in books and movies and writings of widely read editorial writiers such as Walter Lippman and H. L. Mencken.

Here is an illustrative quote from H. L. Mencken from January 9, 1922.

"The other day a strange thing happened. I sat down to dinner in my own house without any impertinent and imbecile jackass summoning me from the table to the telephone. The thing, indeed, seemed almost miraculous; you will never convince me that it could have been possible without divine intervention. There, for the first time in years, I wallowed in the luxury of a meal eaten in peace, with no abominable shrilling of a bell to interrupt my engulfing of my victuals, and no choleric conversation with a moron to paralyze my digestion."

Amazing ... and even with the "National Do Not Call Register", 85 years later we are still pestered by those groups that were able to bribe Congress to gain exemptions, viz., pollsters, charities and marketing surveys.

Markets

Momentum beefers bailed from many financials yesterday and perhaps some beefers have secured real shares to re-short. The media says the drop was due to "disappointing" existing home sales data. With their chronic search for headlines of doom to trumpet, the media blared the year-over-year price data and the seasonally adjusted sales data. In times of major change, one must be wary of seasonal adjustment formulae.

So Bunkerman did a bit of forensic work to ferret out "real" data.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $215,100 in June.
For Q4 2007 in the US, that number was 205,700 on average. For Q1 2008, the number was $196,300. For March, $200,700; For April, that number was $202,300., May was 208,300.

Does anyone notice a monthly trend in median prices resembling a bottom?

There's more: Inventory: April – 4.55 million May – 4.49 million; June – 4.49 million.

That looks like a flat inventory for about three months. No increases. Isn't that a sign of a clearing market ?

Politics

Does anyone else think it odd that a US Presidential candidate draws a crowd of 200,000 people in a European nation ? Or any nation other than the US itself ? I cannot remember a similar occurence in the past. I wonder what this means ?

More

PS: Check out http://bankstocks.com/. Lots of good info is there. Maybe he reads this blog ;-)

PPS: I just bought some BA, IR, ITW as I want some industrials with export exposure. Just small starter positions - I'm not sure to which of these I will add shares over time. For now I consider them one composite position.

Words of the Day

All three of these $10 words were in a single, later paragraph of the article by H. L. Mencken from which I drew the paragraph above. This article was published in a daily newspaper - the Baltimore Evening Sun. Oh, woe is the state of modern education !

"Brummagem" - adjective or noun [$10] (accent on first syllable - brum - and the "g" is prounouced as "j" as in Jim.)
Brummagem means (adjective) showy, cheap; (noun) something cheap or inferior.
Sentence: Since 1968, US political conventions have been steadily degraded into brummagem pep rallies with little intellectual content or debate.

"Puerile" - adjective [$10]
Puerile means 1. trivial, childish, immature; 2. of or llike a child.
Sentence: Nearly all modern media reporting has both puerile content and vocabulary.

"Simian" - adjective or noun[$10]
Simian means (adjective) relating to, characteristic of, or resembling an ape or a monkey; (noun) an ape or monkey.
Sentence: Some sculpture critics describe numerous Roman works as simian products derived from Greek originals.