Friday, July 25, 2008

Return to the 1920s

I am not writing about 1920s stock manipulation in this post. That exists now thanks to big money pools - aka hedge funds - and the knaves/fools at the SEC, but it is just one element of modern life that derives from the modern American society that was created post World War I by our grandparents and great grandparents. By that time, electricity was nationwide, as was phone service and the automobile; movies and radio existed. Modern American culture began then and in its major structures still exist in those forms. One can see this in books and movies and writings of widely read editorial writiers such as Walter Lippman and H. L. Mencken.

Here is an illustrative quote from H. L. Mencken from January 9, 1922.

"The other day a strange thing happened. I sat down to dinner in my own house without any impertinent and imbecile jackass summoning me from the table to the telephone. The thing, indeed, seemed almost miraculous; you will never convince me that it could have been possible without divine intervention. There, for the first time in years, I wallowed in the luxury of a meal eaten in peace, with no abominable shrilling of a bell to interrupt my engulfing of my victuals, and no choleric conversation with a moron to paralyze my digestion."

Amazing ... and even with the "National Do Not Call Register", 85 years later we are still pestered by those groups that were able to bribe Congress to gain exemptions, viz., pollsters, charities and marketing surveys.

Markets

Momentum beefers bailed from many financials yesterday and perhaps some beefers have secured real shares to re-short. The media says the drop was due to "disappointing" existing home sales data. With their chronic search for headlines of doom to trumpet, the media blared the year-over-year price data and the seasonally adjusted sales data. In times of major change, one must be wary of seasonal adjustment formulae.

So Bunkerman did a bit of forensic work to ferret out "real" data.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $215,100 in June.
For Q4 2007 in the US, that number was 205,700 on average. For Q1 2008, the number was $196,300. For March, $200,700; For April, that number was $202,300., May was 208,300.

Does anyone notice a monthly trend in median prices resembling a bottom?

There's more: Inventory: April – 4.55 million May – 4.49 million; June – 4.49 million.

That looks like a flat inventory for about three months. No increases. Isn't that a sign of a clearing market ?

Politics

Does anyone else think it odd that a US Presidential candidate draws a crowd of 200,000 people in a European nation ? Or any nation other than the US itself ? I cannot remember a similar occurence in the past. I wonder what this means ?

More

PS: Check out http://bankstocks.com/. Lots of good info is there. Maybe he reads this blog ;-)

PPS: I just bought some BA, IR, ITW as I want some industrials with export exposure. Just small starter positions - I'm not sure to which of these I will add shares over time. For now I consider them one composite position.

Words of the Day

All three of these $10 words were in a single, later paragraph of the article by H. L. Mencken from which I drew the paragraph above. This article was published in a daily newspaper - the Baltimore Evening Sun. Oh, woe is the state of modern education !

"Brummagem" - adjective or noun [$10] (accent on first syllable - brum - and the "g" is prounouced as "j" as in Jim.)
Brummagem means (adjective) showy, cheap; (noun) something cheap or inferior.
Sentence: Since 1968, US political conventions have been steadily degraded into brummagem pep rallies with little intellectual content or debate.

"Puerile" - adjective [$10]
Puerile means 1. trivial, childish, immature; 2. of or llike a child.
Sentence: Nearly all modern media reporting has both puerile content and vocabulary.

"Simian" - adjective or noun[$10]
Simian means (adjective) relating to, characteristic of, or resembling an ape or a monkey; (noun) an ape or monkey.
Sentence: Some sculpture critics describe numerous Roman works as simian products derived from Greek originals.

86 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh, Larry Kudlow must read this blog - he just adduced the same data that I wrote abot this morning.

Bud said...

Bman you need to relax

you say you don't wanna play ping-pong anymore.....you are 'semi-retired'

so why get so worked up over day-to-day moves in the stock market

the fear-mongerers, recession-mongerers, inflation-mongerers and doom and gloomers have seen their best days for the year......they are going to be taught a vicous lesson now

the US economy is in recovery mode.....stocks prices look ahead.....bears beware

Bud said...

hmmmmm.....talkin to a trader friend of mine......works for a hedge fund

he has my thinkin about the 'uptick rule'

i'll just say this......i am not against reinstating it


PS........for etf's too!!!!!

Bud said...

uh....i don't like this new format of multiple 'words of the day'

is this something the non-posters requested??

i prefer one a day......easy to remember and add to my vocabulary

Bunkerman said...

uh ... I am fighting an addiction to the market action :-((

Bunkerman said...

from http://bankstocks.com ->

"... July 15, 2008 will turn out to be as good a date as any to mark the end of the long, painful bear market financial stocks have endured for the past 18 months. And more to the point, it marks the beginning of the greatest financial stock bull market in our lifetime, one that will be much broader than the bull market that began in 1990."

Bunkerman said...

Some days I just have more than one.

But your suggestion is probably a good one. I will try to limit it to one in the future.

mfl59 said...

yes, bankstocks.com has been on fire....

huge positons in ABK MBI CFC NCC IMB that were averaged all the way down....but the bull mkt is starting now....oh.....

mfl59 said...

sheesh I sound like the old Bud....

Meet the Mets, Greet the Mets....Meet the first place Mets

Spin-em said...

@#$$% mike......you didnt say a word about the Mets charge....but now..the Mets top is in....way to go...lol

Bunkerman said...

well put, mfl. Hmmm some "friend" of mine has been trading down on some banks, too.

But he's in the black on JPM and BAC now.

Well, today is the first day I've read it for a couple of years. I really read it for the data, not the opinion.

So maybe now, he is right.

;-)

Bunkerman said...

Mets are in the minor league, no ?

Aka antiquated, fuddy-duddy National League.

;-)

Bunkerman said...

lolol the senior citizen league

Q-tip league

;-)

mfl59 said...

the national league is real baseball sir...none of this designated hitter nonsense....we manufacture runs in the NL...the game is played the way Mr. Doubleday intended...

Bud said...

american league pitchers are too soft to run the bases

especially yankee pitchers


speakin of yankee pitchers.....i really hope joba chamberlain throws at youklis's head tonite.......youk will charge the mound and knock him out

but joba won't.....he's a pussy

watch him get rattled tonite at fenway


"mommy mommy ....the mosquitoes"

Bunkerman said...

Uh ... wasn't Doubleday a General in the Civil War ?

I guess that's doing it the old-fashioned way.

"manufacture runs" ... hmmm

sounds slow ;-)

Bud said...

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking of national registered voters' presidential election preferences finds Barack Obama with a slight advantage over John McCain, 45% to 43%.




after a week of ass-kissing by the national media.......no bump for the N

mfl59 said...

You are correct Bunkerman...I believe he is a graduate of West Point...

Bunkerman said...

a 3-2 homer with two on base beats the heck out of a double switch and bunt.

Bunkerman said...

uh .. good durable goods ...

whither recession ?

Bud said...

what are the recession mongerers gonna say now????

mfl59 said...

lmaoooo durable goods #'s are as volatile as mern's daily postings....

Bunkerman said...

bought some BA, IR, ITW - want some industrials with export exposure. Just small starter positions - I'm not sure which of these I will add to over time.

Frosty said...

durable goods packed in goverment cheese...the speaker pushing for another round of craft singles for the common man...of course the rick and powerful have no worries...Mrs B may hold bun, but she still get's the meat.

Bunkerman said...

don't really see how the govt checks affect increasing business investment

Bunkerman said...

I'm a simple, common man ... up is up.

Hmmm "University of Michigan Sentiment-revised 61.2 vs 56.4 consensus"

Bud said...

"she still gets the meat"


LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Bud said...

new home sales ok


what are the recession mongerers gonna say now???

Bud said...

oil weak again


wrong way beefers indeed

Frosty said...

“The question is -- and this is why the market hasn't reacted too negatively to the durable goods report -- is whether businesses ... will continue to spend given the risks to consumer spending posed by high energy prices.”
Tony Crescenzi quotes

Frosty said...

Bud u disgusting pig...twisting my words in such a manner.

Sorry Mrs B...Bud and mern make the rest of us sick.

Bunkerman said...

hmmm mooliyan perhaps is this word:

mooliani
I-talian mafioso speak for black man. noun. comes from the word moolie, but ishaq siddiqi spawned the word mooliani whilst taking care of business with his godfather

Or

moolie

Italian slang for a black person. Short for "moulinyan," Italian dialect for "eggplant."

Bud said...

yes Bman


it is just another form of the 'N' world

when i lived in nyc, it was the preferred choice of my italian friends

mern said...

been a gud week for stagger lee.

some gud stuff on the economy

some bad.

beige book was pretty clear, we r in stagflation.

even oil is only up 25% ytd. PHEW!!!!!!

we had/having a classic bear market rally. fast and vicious.

NL is real baseball
AL is jacked up, & stupid. managing an NL team is much harder, ask joe torre.

got home a tad late last nite, put on fox news. some righty was crying in his soup that big mac has no mo, and has no idea what he can do to stop the dark meat. he was blaming the liberal media, and was righting mac epitah.

president mush's power with the darkside is very strong and taking big mac with him. the only thing that cud save him is hukabee on the VP. then it comes down to just how many people dont believe in evolution. and for some reason, that # is growing.

Bunkerman said...

hmm I wonder what $ or other value I should apply to words only un the Urban Dictionary ?

mern said...

Most areas of the country are seeing at least some increase in foreclosure activity," said James Saccadic, CEO of RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. "Forty-eight of 50 states and 95 out of the nation's 100 largest metro areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity."


bottomish, yes, but we gonna be here for a long time.

no quick fix to this mess.

Bud said...

i believe in evolution 10000000%

here's my proof

michelle obama........you can still see ape-like features

Spin-em said...

thats twice Bud has mentioned "friends" today....coincidence?..I think not..

soups on!!! Mr Buttons put your shoes on!!!

mern said...

bud seriously thats just weak.

even bob doesnt go that low.

u r still a registered democrat, right?

mfl59 said...

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level in nearly five years and its annualized growth rate was also down, indicating that an upturn in the business cycle is not yet in sight, a research group said on Friday. "The way a good leading index works is that its level always turns up months before the end of the recession," Achuthan said. "With the WLI level falling to its lowest reading in nearly five years, it is clear that a business cycle recovery is nowhere in sight."

Bunkerman said...

Bud, you missed a chance to use a word of the day.

;-)

Bud said...

oops...... did use 'friends' twice today

5 yard penalty



'poor lonely Bud'

mern said...

bud im mailing u a bumper sticker i got last nite at skippers (it was grateful dead nite)

its says

"limbaugh/coulter in 12. sure they are dicks, but they are drug addicts too!"

i can see the 3 way now. rush catching, snorting crushed oxys. bud in the middle, giving rush a reach around. and ann in the back, with a big fat black dildo, slamming your ass. and her saying, "hillary never gave u the black cock that im serving up, did she!"

now thats evolution!

Bud said...

shoot Bman......i screwed up.......excellent addition to my vocabulary


'simian'


loooooooooooooooooool

Frosty said...

Bunky...how many non-posters are lurking today...is the Qman around today...the common man could use a chiken bone...what is he pumping and dumping on fast money toight.

Frosty said...

non-posters...that lacks respect...sorry Mrs B, don't group me in with Bud and Mern, they are disgusting.

non-posters nonono...secret society of real buyers...indeed.

Spin-em said...

The Dead Poets Society...nonono The Hidin Posters Society

Oh Captain My Captain!!!

mern said...

But hold the celebration, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, which has approximately $500 billion of assets under management.

While the 11.1 months supply of existing homes on the market and 10 months supply of new homes is dramatically high, those figures understate the inventory of homes potentially for sale, Garnick says. The issue is that millions of Americans are waiting for the housing market to "bottom" so they can sell their homes -- not so they can buy.

In other words, there's a "shadow supply" of housing inventory that has yet to be formally put on the market but could swamp any nascent recovery. Moreover, with 78 million Baby Boomers approaching or at retirement age, there's going to be a "big supply of bigger homes," Garnick says, as most Boomers look to downsize.

For these and other reasons, she believes the $1 trillion figure being used by NYU's Nouriel Roubini and Pimco's Bill Gross is likely the floor for the ultimately cost of the housing crisis, rather than the ceiling.

Spin-em said...

Big John here in the valley the other day..front page picture big John on stage with about 75 people....not one token dark meater...not one.lol..message received sir

Bunkerman said...

dunno re non-posters; I think they mostly read & go and don't lurk.

Bunkerman said...

hmmm that "nonono" reminds me of a possible word of the day - need to use it soon.

Bunkerman said...

uh ... most retirees just stay put until they can't stay in the home anymore.

Frosty said...

Big John...once again snubs scraton...ppfftt

Frosty said...

private email problems...hope everyone dumped some JNJ HN (near 70 calls, Bud) for 3x @ .60 yesterday...you can still bank 2x today on half and take a swing at 5x into ops expo.

97% cash...that will be 6k...have a nice day.

Bud said...

JNJ HN.......now i get it!!!!

i don't do options......i haven't looked at an option quote since the 90s

apparently the Bman doesn't look at options either


'ops expo'


pffffffffffffffffffffft

Frosty said...

sorry Mrs. B...I can only imagine how you despise such pompous, boastful behavior.

Spin-em said...

great job "Bob"

Bunkerman said...

I do options some but not as trades ... as stock substitutes.

mern said...

big mac has 1 chance. challenge the new president elect to a bowling match, for all the marbles.

mccain just needs to move a few boards to the right becuase that tumor effect his stroke. it hooks a tad.

just keep saying change and be positive. whitey cant beat that.

mfl59 said...

Bob again exceeded expectations....nothing like growing out the beard for a week and having him shave it with the sharp blade...brilliant...

he also loves politics...

"this guy obama is a real jerk off"

lmaooooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

Bud...check GS fin short inventory...tight as a drum again...Bunky, get on the horn, these fins need to use this new found market cap...the bulls could really gaff the bears...your assigment, should you choice to accept it, arrange WFC for WM over the weekend.

Bud said...

weak.....lame......pathetic

how you guys stroke each other for some supposedly good calls


let's get this clear......no congratulations for private emails or retroactive trades


"i bought PCX yesterday at 110......



pfffffffffffffffffffft

Frosty said...

National Australia Bank Sees Write-Down of $795 Million...US mortgage loans.

Bunky...that mark was at .10 on the buck...we make that type mark to model here you best be off to costco for smokes and nylons.

Frosty said...

Frosty said...
JNJ HN .22

July 21, 2008 8:17 AM

Frosty said...

Frosty said...
JNJ worth some coin here Bunky...look at that chart since 12/07...over 70 that looks 75+...the perfect stock for funds in 2nd half indeed sir...just posted good numbers...MRK SGP pin action a drag today...I can smell real buyers, can you.

July 21, 2008 7:43 AM


Bud said...
JNJ?? that stock doesn't move


is that some sort of 'post ops expo monday' algorithm trade ????

July 21, 2008 7:46 AM

Frosty said...

thnik I'll take my broom and get out of town ala bosox from the emerald city.

Bud said...

first of all

no one told me what JNJ HN means......so it doesn't count


second......JNJ??? really?? is that what you guys trade??

JNJ is the perfect stock for the non-posters.....in their ira's



"give me a f'ng break !!!!! "

Bud said...

there isn't a chance in hell that jim would ever post a trade on JNJ or MRK or BMY


we're busy with POT and SKF and GHM

Frosty said...

uh Bud...I was talking to Bunky...you decided to stick your noise in our conversation just to get it punched off...PCX common 3x by next week, well played Bud, in advance.

Bunkerman said...

without knowing the details of the MBS, the marks mean nothing wrt others.

Bunkerman said...

they could have bought low rated, high yield tranches

mfl59 said...

"97% cash"

thanks for your help sir...

Bunkerman said...

Uh ... Mrs. B owns JNJ in her Sky Fund, but true, she in an investor, not a trader.

Frosty said...

JNJ IO someone just doulbed the open interest .09...atta gal Mrs.B...secret society of real buyers indeed.

Bunkerman said...

frosty, how about JPM for WM at $8 ? That private equity might accept it to get out.

shorts skewered ... impaled ... :-)

Frosty said...

indeed Bunky...BAC already on the 10% deposit waiver...don't know the JPM ratio...WFC market familiar ie WM,...but hey JPM could really lock up some nice weat coast areas to battle BAC...I like it.

Bunkerman said...

I think there is an exception to the 10% rule for taking over S&Ls - BAC used it for CFC.

Bunkerman said...

I think WFC would have too much overlap. They seem a bit passive, too.

Frosty said...

Bunky...WM took common 3.85 sold some august puts.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm it's Friday, that means a circus dog party & world's finest martini

:-))

(without the market, I 'd forget which day it is)

Bunkerman said...

took common & some Aug 4 calls.

Bunkerman said...

WM that is.

Bunkerman said...

C'mon Jamie ... hit that 8 point ! Hard 8 !

Bud said...

thanks jim

you're the best !!!!



have a good weekend

Frosty said...

JNJ...Qman the fast money pump...atta gal Mrs. B.

Spin-em said...

especially yankee pitchers


speakin of yankee pitchers.....i really hope joba chamberlain throws at youklis's head tonite.......youk will charge the mound and knock him out

but joba won't.....he's a pussy

watch him get rattled tonite at fenway


"mommy mommy ....the mosquitoes



BUUUUUUZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

thanks Jim

HEEEEEEEEE HAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!
JACK AZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!