Market
Does the new quarter bring change ? So far, no. More heavy European selling is now occuring as can often lead to a big down day. Many recent big down days begin with heavy selling in the DAX and in Europe and shifts to the US around 5AM ET. So it's obviously Europe-source telic selling.
Year to date:
Krypto Fund -3.72% ... outperforming by far. [contains about 85% of investments]
Alpha Fund -28.1% ... ugly, underperforming by far. [contains about 15% of investments]
The Alpha Fund losses are all in my "early / stinking" buys of the big banks. Ugh! Other holdings are in the green or show quite small losses. Interestingly, after this Q2 drop, my Krypto Fund model shows no need to re-balance ... so the declines are really broad around the world and across asset classes. I rebalance when a class is 5% from target allocation. That means for an asset class targeted to be 20% of the fund, I re-balance when it goes over 21% or under 19%.
World History
I just finished the interesting book, "Soldiers of Fortune" by Sir John Glubb, which is a history of the Mamluke empire which ruled Syria and Egypt via an unusual ruling warrior caste from about 1250 AD to 1517 AD. The greater point the author makes in the book is that empires tend to last only about 250 to 350 years. Some kind of sociological decline seems to be immanent in them regardless of the historical era or ruling structure. His examples are the British Empire (1700 to 1950), the Mamluke empire (1250 to 1517), the Greek Selucid empire (332 BC to 63 BC), and the Spanish American empire (1500 AD to 1800 AD).
Other examples from my memory are the Manchurian dynasty in China (1644 AD to 1912 AD), the Ming dynasty (AD 1368 to AD 1644), and the Russian Romanov dynasty (1613 AD to 1917 AD). The Roman republic lasted a bit longer, but it's phase as an "empire" beyond Italy ran from about 280 BC to 31 BC. The Roman Principate ran from about 31 BC to about 285 AD. The Austrian Empire ran from about 1650 AD to 1918 AD as a solidified state. The Ottoman Empire ran from about 1450 AD to 1918 AD - quite long - although the first 50+ years was somewhat confined geographically and the last 50+ years were decrepit. All these dates are rough and many empires such as Rome were able to mutate to survive with some modifications.
So where is the American "empire" in this time line ? I suppose that it dates to about 1900. Adding the range 250 to 350 years gives 2150 AD to 2250 AD for its lifetime and dominance. I guess the doomsayers might be a bit premature, at least per historical analogs.
Word of the Day
"Synoecism" - noun [$1000] rom Greek Antiquity
Synoecism means the union of several towns or villages into or under one capital city.
Sentence: (A) The modern New York City was formed in 1898 as a synoecism of Brooklyn, the county of New York (Manhattan and parts of the Bronx), the county of Richmond (Staten Island) and western parts of the county of Queens. (B) The Krypto Fund is a synoecism of independent investment funds with periodic rebalancing under an overall plan.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
59 comments:
does billionaire investor Eli Broad read this blog?
"this will be the worst recession since ww2" .... on blommberg-tv
Thomas jefferson was a strong opponent of the synoecism of the new US government.
"im 34 yrs old, and i want to have kids, but not with you."
been nice to hear that about 8 yrs ago, since that is how long she has been thinking that.
i just wud have been better off not pressing the situation, but when you can feel something is way off, u have to recheck your thesis.
i did, and i got slammed!
funny u can be with someone 9 yrs, and have a conversation that leads u to believe this person has no idea what u r about.
i seriously heard things that have my head shaking right now.
a perfect example is her theory that i dont want her to succeed at her job. well the actual reality i wud love it if she made 500k a yr and i cud sit at home. my problem was the working 60 to 70 hours a week, and us getting little QT.
guess i dont have to worry about that anymore.
well i was happy for 3 weeks since, 2000. now back to being a negative asshole.
i was watching a show on FDR recently.....the US was not a military superpower in the 1930s
in fact had we gone to war against germany 5 years before we did.........US wud have been crushed
i don't like the term 'American empire' since throughout our history (with one exception) we have never invaded a country unless for self-defense or part of a global alliance to prevent tyranny and genocide and a holocaust
of course dirtbag lowlife scumbags like Bush and Cheney are the exception
I don't buy the American empire characterization either. But I supose it is a "cultural" empire in some respects - US culture and business practices do dominate the world.
But the alternatives are hard to imagine in a free world.
US could have crushed Germany by itself if it had the will.
Many forget the US fought Japan too by itself (mostly).
US airforce, navy were totally dominant.
Btw, in 1936, Germany was quite weak. If France had contested the Rhineland re-occupation, Germany would have crumbled.
"spin's AIXG havin issues"
PS........what is 'archie's posters' ? he keeps sayin spin is busy buyin them
I was thinkin the same last night when I heard......I just figured it out... Archaletta from Idol..LMAOOO.....
mern...anybody that stayed with you for 9 years deserves a medal...now go fix it and say your sorry ya f-n dope.....
Bunkerman when are you going to release your new buy list sir?
re buy list: a few days ... still thinking and getting ready to deploy new $$$
'buy list'
seems to me like the real buyers hidin underneath their desks ......they really took a shallacking this year
hehe ... perhaps real buyers are hiding in their bunkers to esacpe shelling
;-)
there is no way spin, i tried.
once she said she wanted out, she kept saying "now that ive said it out loud, i feel better and i am not going to back track."
and the reality is she is the one that is disrespecting the relationship/marriage, whatever it was.
whether she is cheating or not, the fact remains she aint here, and i am alone. so i pressed that point.
i got the response above, yet none of my friends (females included) share her opinion of me being a bad father. cindy thinks that becuase when we owned the dog shop we fought while we were being played by the previous owner. i bought his BS, she didnt. i apologized when it hit the fan, but she is convinced if we have a child we will fight like that.
id rather look at how we care for our own animals, and if you look at it from that perspective...... well, i am the only who really takes care of them.
she stays out late. i cant reach her by cell for hours at a clip. i even hired a PI, but she is just boucing around people she works with and most of them are gay men. but that does not excuse ignoring the relationship. so i pressed, and then another bomb comes out.
"well when i am around u i feel stressed and worried. when i am around other people i feel happy"
this relationship was headed for a dirt nap in 2001, but then my stupid mom had to get sick. which made me even more negative and dark. then best friend and partner check out in 2001, then i really went dark.
so been on the darkside 8 yrs. i just came out of all that last month. so i became happier. happier equalled less self medication. less self medication lead me to discover i was self medicating becuase i was totally alone a majority of my days. so as i sobered up, i began to notice my wife is a slob, never cooks, cleans, does shit.
she shud be kissing my hairy bean bag, but she cant get over stuff that happened in 2001, and it keeps coming up every 6 months. and everytime it comes up, it gets worse.
i still think there is got to be someone she has in mind. im an asshole, but i aint dumb.
we went from having serious discussions on making the marriage legit and having a baby about 6 weeks ago, to last night.
thats not right. i deserve better, as she says. she says she deserves better, i say good fucking luck trying to find some guy that never likes to watch a game and prefers spending 8 hours a weekend at the in laws looking at pics and listening to audio tapes. even if i had a normal childhood, that wud bore me. but becuase of my totally fucked childhood, when i see that shit, i just get jealous and think about what cud have been, if my dad lasted past 9.
nothing in common other than great sex.
1250 official bear market terrirtory. when was the last time we had 2 bear markets in the same decade? the 1930's?
well i guess it cud be worse. i cud have been long and or trading this yr. while i wud probably be up, it probably wudnt be worth the stress to my heart.
i wish i had the stones to short the world like bud, but i stopped doing that 5/1/07.
its amazing timing no?
have i mentioned i hate this decade?!
gut says this is some type of bottom. i wud cover my shorts here, at least half, certainly wudnt press. but i sure wudnt be buying anything.
just got some AAA, florida paper with 5.4% coupon at 96.50.
i really cant seeing doing much better than that after taxes, for yrs, until the beefers r really really really thinned out.
S&P new lo
boy does that chart look AWFUL!
if it was inverted, we wud all be 200% long
just a lil' mid-cycle pullback...real buyeers are taking their time wating for bargains...buy low and sell high indeed.
wierd "recession" - ISM mfg index over 50, indicating "expansion"
btw, my commments are mostly about the real economy ... as I've said, the beefers can make Ms. Market dance to any tune they wish
Bunky...did you find things around your estate in order upon your return...I recall your servants were swarming the grounds, like slaves building the great prymids, to complete the bunky memorial library.
Does Marc Faber read this blog?
"Anyone who thinks inflation doesn't exist must live in a cave"
"This recession is as obvious as any in the history of mankind"
Re Faber, etc. - some people keep rigorous definitions and look are data, some make it up as they go along.
I am in the former camp.
I suspect Q2 GDP will prove me correct.
where is GDP growth coming from sir?
All was well at the bunker .. haha no slaves nor servants.
The landscaper even planted ne fine new rose bush.
No "memorial" libraries, please ! I have a working library - actually, 1.5 now.
not sure exactly when the advance number comes out.
It's just broad, slow growth - mostly from solid momentum outside of housing.
I'm sticking to my "logos" arguments ...
logic ... reason ... data ... facts
no changing defintions ... words matter.
no emotion ("pathos") ... no reliance on seers (character - "ethos")
unfortunately that has cost me lost of $$$ in Q2.
:-((
I wonder if there has ever been a bear market (defined as more the 20% down) with no recesion (defined as two consecutive negative GDP numbers) ?
looks like 1939-1942 and 1987 for sure; some others possible.
frosty come out of the closet yet?
Bunkerman as a student of finance do you use the Q ratio in any of your analysis sir?
maybe this weekend Bud...you should be here to find out...lil' bbq perhaps...like to roast my turnips on a stick around a huge burning cross...I'll supply everthing, just bring a water bottle, I have a garden hose.
Bunky BAC...ken lewis a man of his word or not...that 11% skim is temtping...yet your not buying...hhhmmmmm
BAC stuck a toe in 23.30.
re Q ratio - no.
The problem with corporate net worth as a concept is that it's understated so much for so many companies due to the expensing on all that human capital and branding that creates the systems and knowledge that are so important to earnings.
This has changed a lot over time.
I mostly use earnings and interest rates. But I do think about asset values sometimes in situatiosn when it seems important.
sheesh frosty ... how much BAC do you want me to own ?
I doubled up a few weeks ago .. to early as usual
too early
BAC looks like a $10 stock to me
Bunky, so you still think the BAC dividend is safe, that's what I want to know...do you believe in miracles sir.
Bunkerman what would make you change your stance on the financials?
yes to both ... but I have enough of BAC for now.
I have no "stand" on all financials ... I don't like the investment banks at all nor the fiannce companies now the non-bank mortage companies.
I like the big commercial banks for LT.
I think they will raise prices - aka spreads - on loans and will be the only game in towm and mint money next year or even later this year.
meant "nor", not now
I might buy more BAC, but now now. I want to see the next dividend declared.
meant not now re BAC
mr hunt with the same post on the meredith whitney blog...always looking for the corner...nothing like a student body left knight's power sweep.
Uhh Bunkerman we all know you own shares of GS.....beefers indeed...
someone once said "in a bear mkt eventually they come for eveything"
ags, steels, oils finally showing signs of crackage
BAC...appears I'm a lil' early.
does Wilbur Ross read this blog?
"The man on the street thinks we're in a recession, and I'm with the man on the street"
the man on the street believes in Astrology, too.
i saw that......and 3 seconds earlier he was talkin about $90m and $66m mansions old in palm beach
'man on the street'
pffffffffffffffffffffffffft
GM ops expo trade for you Bud...near 12.50 trades open interest with level takers on the out months.
have no idea what that means frosty
but i am long GM ......good call in the tank
is this a rally?
Bud remember to buff the escalade with a fine shammy sir....nothing upsets the reverned more than streak marks on the new paint job...
cnbc, beefer games during a short holiday week...Bunkerman, no rant...real buyers snapping up value indeed sir.
busy chasing the servants off thier coffee break my bet....swarm swarm swarm.
Here are the Dogs of the Dow, with their yields as of market close on 6/26/08:
Bank of America (BAC) 9.6%
Pfizer (PFE) 7.2%
General Motors (GM) 7.6%
Citigroup (C) 6.8%
Verizon (VZ) 4.9%
AT&T (T) 4.7%
General Electric (GE) 4.5%
Merck (MRK) 4.1%
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) 4%
DuPont (DD) 3.7%
Bunkerman...you appear to not have many readers in eruoland based on these recent headlines...what are you plans for going global sir...you have some work to do indeed.
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
RBS stock market alert: Fund managers react
Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve’s credibility crumbles
Buy `Crash Protection’ Puts on European Stocks, Goldman Says
BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree
BIS slams central banks, warns of worse crunch to come
Global economy faces deep slowdown and deflation threat, BIS warns
Fortis Bank Predicts US Financial Market Meltdown Within Weeks
I know I have a few Euro-readers, not a huge following there ... yet ;-)
Euro-land was bearish last fall and a lot o the bank problems were really worse there.
And Trichet lost his batting form last fall after helping Ben hit a slider last August. I don't think Trichet reads this blog, though.
Perhaps Sarkozy does.
I play Europe with the Vanguard index ETF/funds - no strong opinions.
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