Humanity was not re-invented in 2000. Many significant events and behavior occurring now are strikingly similar to such from 80 and 100 years ago. Or even 1000 and 2000 years ago.
Some examples.
1. A fixation with apocalyptic outcomes. The fact of civilization is that barring war or political revolution or governmental error, human civilisation moves with slow meliorism. Big changes just don't occur. But human beings have become fixated on apocalyptic outcomes and visions for millenia. None foreseen has happened. Why are so many expecting a armageddon in the financial markets ? This perception existed in the 1980s and 1990s and now again. But what has happened ? A chart of US GDP shows quite a boring uptrend since ... 1933.
2. Financial markets exhibit crowd behavior. This has been so well known for decades. So why is it a surprise when the "markets" basically go nuts in fear panics or greed lust ? Books have been written about this and seers talk with furrowed brows describing it. But in the middle of one, all is forgotten. Simple trend following overwhelms all thought. Facts don't matter any more. Fearmongering and rumormongering runs amuck.
3. When fences are cut, wolves will prey. One purpose of laws and rules is to prevent the ruthless and evil from preying on the common man. This holds true in financial markets. In the 1920s and before, financial wolves manipulated stocks, conducted bear raids, and pumped stocks with impunity. When the SEC and Congress succumbed to libertarian nonsense and payoffs from Wall Street and hedge funds and gutted market regulations in the name of "reform", they just let the same pack of wolves loose again. No surprise they are back doing the same behaviors again as they did in the 1920s and before. The human behavior pattern was always lurking.
So yesterday all three were patterns were at work in the rumors and raids on FNMA and Freddie Mac. And the libertarians like Poole tossed some gas on the fire. Bear raiders spread false rumors about LEH. Sigh....
This is why I stick to Krypto Fund investing for the bulk of my investments. Broad diversification and mechanical asset allocation.
Doing nothing ...
PS: even the horrible 1929-1933 period in the financial markets, when viewed on a 100 year wall chart, are just a pronounced up and down move returning to the long term trend after a decade.
PPS: GE good numbers ... whither recession ?
Word of the Day
“Paraenetic” – adjective [$1000]
“Paraenesis” – noun [$1000]
Paraenetic means of, pertaining to, or of the nature of paranesis, advisory, hortatory.
Paraenesis means exhortation, advise, counsel; a hortatory composition.
Sentence: Thinking about events of the past few months and days, Bunkerman today wrote a paraenetic blog about human behavior in a longer term perspective.
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78 comments:
does Dr Phil Gramm read this blog?
"The American public is a complete bunch of whiners. The economy is not that bad. Its all in their heads."
lol, maybe ... but he was stupid to say that being McCain's advisor.
'he doesn't dare speak his mind in the tank'
give me a f'ng break !!!!!
i'm not like you guys....ass kissers
"great trade Bunkerman" "well played sir" "great trade Bob"
congratulating guys on averaging down on losing positions and supposed good(retroactive) calls in private emails........i call guys out then and there....and everywhere
kenny banya my ass
phil gramm is an idiot.........is he on the Obama campaign payroll???
'GE good numbers'
good chart too
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
looks like another "smashing" day
'be careful what you wish for'
from wsj today
The June stock-market rout has battered two high-profile hedge funds.
Prentice Capital Management LP, the New York firm started in May 2005 with about $400 million in start-up money from the huge hedge-fund firm SAC Capital Advisors LLC, has plunged 46% this year. Almost half of that drop happened during June as the value of the firm's stock and debt investments in retailers plummeted, according to investors.
Last month, Prentice barred clients from withdrawing money, resorting to a defensive step hedge funds can take to avoid selling assets in desperation when clients ask to pull significant amounts.
In London, an even bigger hedge fund, Martin Hughes's Tosca Fund, has declined almost 30% this year as its bets on financial and U.K. home-builder stocks suffered.
Bman wants every 'beefer' to go belly up
ok fine
then BAC will be $4 and JPM will be $6
just for the record, the libertarian, no regulation crowd wanted to privatize FNMA and Freddie a few years ago - "private market can handle this"
roflmao.
That's Gold Bud..GOLD!!!
"97% cash"
lmaoooooooooooooooooooo.....
Hmmm some say "speculators" don't control oil markets ... so the price drops $10 and then goes up $10 in a few days....
uh ... that's "rational" ? Not controlled by speculators ?
Sheesh... ostriches.
Despite my relentlessly providing the Bman paraenisis , I have failed miserably in altering his outlook on the american financial sytem.
Bud what time is your reservation at Mendy's tonight? Make sure to tell your mentor that soup is not a meal sir....
fix your f'ng email frosty !!!
i don't wanna miss any 'great calls on coals' email
pffffffffffffffffffffft
Mr Whittingham,have you been workin out???...YOU'RE HUGE!!!
lolol Bud ... good usage
I guess Hank the Tank lied about FRE,FNM
Merny BA .500 1 RBI
(results do not include last night)
not sure "lie" fits, from what I've heard, the FMNA, Freddie plan are just p;ans ... that they should have and would be castigated if they did not have then.
but why the leaks ? I suippose those are an example of govt not being able to keep any secrets.
is this armageddon?
...what a ride W's had..wow
santelli just ripped the Bman
PS....does he read this blog?
this oil market nonsense should give Barney Frank plenty of ammo to kick out the pension funds and put some regualtory sense back into it.
Cramer wanted no part of Santelli....last time he crushed him..lol
darn ... misssed that ... was lifting weights.
thanks for the email frost..we'll try it....
lmaoooooooooooooooooo spin
see frosty......that's being funny and witty.......without resorting to stupid homo jokes
you really are a pig
do the Israeli's only do Iran missions on fridays?..lol
Black Friday? or does the PPT have any bullets left?
this fella Greenspan would have had rates at -2% by now....
The drinks are on David Tice tonight men...anything you want....he's in the champagne room currently I believe...
bot some GE
Will fill up the position later today or sooner.
thought this was such a great post it deserved a third pass, twice just didn't seem like enough...luv me.
'he doesn't dare speak his mind in the tank'
give me a f'ng break !!!!!
i'm not like you guys....ass kissers
"great trade Bunkerman" "well played sir" "great trade Bob"
congratulating guys on averaging down on losing positions and supposed good(retroactive) calls in private emails........i call guys out then and there....and everywhere
kenny banya my ass
i f'ng read last nite's late posts this morning.......i posted it in the wrong place
sheeeeeeeeeesh
Bud are you really swinging at that? it was 2 feet over your head....
Why do they call it Ovaltine? The mug is round. The jar is round. They should call it Roundtine.
GOLD MIST needs a trip to the MG games...hard target indeed sir...would have been cheaper for us all to buy a magic carpet.
another ppt at work: panic propagation team.
goinng to the barn to load belts
enjoy the panic
;-)
FNM FRE reiterated buy at Citigroup
lmaooooooo
dumb indeed
im up to bat again.
this an interesting lead, that i have yet to meet.
went to skippers last nite for grateful dead nite. there was booth to sign up to vote. i then remembered i never officially dropped out of the repub party. so i fill out the form and handed it to a lady with an obama shirt on. i asked "well im in the mode for a gud political debate, close me on obama." she said that wasnt her job, and what i thought. i told im voting and writing in none of the above.
any way. she tells me about her daughter, showed me pics. she has a masters and is 30. she looks unreal in pics and she 5 foot nothing, which is important when your heater is 5 7/8 inches, on a warm nite!.
so tonite i have to go to the bar where she works, be kind of dick and make no mention i met the mom, becuase she will run away if she finds out her mom told me about her.
one thing going for me here.
being a dick comes pretty natural.
got my dow 11k cap on. for some reason i doubt we wud be here if this was a normal mid cycle slowdown.
bud was very right on the banking call. im so pissed i let my FNM puts ride into the sunset, but i was early, ie very wrong!
i was totally right about the stagger lee call, becuase we are in it, right now. but i never made any money on that call becuase i quit trading to save my marriage.
my name is willie coyote "SUPER GENIUS"
hello allow me to introduce myself, my name is mud.
and dont forget kids, mud spelled backwards is dum.
date prep...do we use electric shave to perk the sack stubble and finsih with old spice...trade that benz for a prowler.
no
but i need to shave my taint this weekend.
so you got that going ....which is nice..lol
A Always B Be C Closing
Always be closing mern....always be closing...
Bud can give you some dating tips...he...oh forget it...he'll cry to daddy....86 frost indeed.
there he goes again
frosty talkin about the 'sack'
wide stance indeed
i think i have also have a plate appearance tomorrow nite
i better make some good contact.......or i don't she'll give me another at bat
Bud's fake date story
so were going at it right and Im squeezin her tits right.....she goes......when do I get to drive your Prowler...so I go...
lmaoooooo
LMAOOO well played Spin...check your email...your dark RIMM $117 this morning, just outstanding sir.
lmaoooooooooooooooo
spin bringin it today
and frosty........i think he's good enuff to be on the olympic team.....softbll team that is
thanks "Bob"
TBT a clear winner today Bunky.
Just saw the stock account of an elderly friend of Mrs. B has been being churned.
over 100 trades the day before he died - in odd lots - when guy was comatose.
Many unauthorized trades since.
Hmmm ...
what a nice story. i luv brokers like that.
was his name bismark padilla?
i bet that brokers managers r throwing hookers into his office wrapped in hundreds and bags of blow.
then when the family files the complaint, he will get fired. and the firm will act like they r stunned he did anything wrong
american idol tour in the rose garden tonight...looken for a miracle.
actually this firm is a big, very well known one. From the statements, it looks like the churning occurred last year, too, at a prior big firm.
Both firms are in top 5.
Broker name is very waspish.
Looks like many confirms are / were being delivered to the gutter.
Even trading after death ... hmm ?
"top 5"
that sure doesnt mean much these days unfortunately
how is the performacne compared to alpha fund :)
frosty usin spin's jokes now ........very weak....very lame
i don't get the point
so there is a crooked criminal broker.....so all of wall street are thieves??
oh yeah....there are no criminals on main street
pfffffffffffffft
very waspish ???
FRE...if you bot off the morning email, up 100%...u may want to take some profits.
Does Allen Sinai read this blog?
"Stagflation is absolutely what we have here in the US"
is this 1920s manipulation?
wow Bunkerman....Bud just took you deep over the centerfield fence....
GE...well done Bunky...right into the teeth of the beast...atta boy.
well compared to Krypto Fund, performance sucked.
GE??
huh?? i don't get it
what's so 'well done'
PS....did i miss another private email??
actually, 2 of the top 5 seem involved.
guess compliance was & is asleep ... what else is knew.
they clearly need a mern on the job.
85 year old guy in assisted living with serious health problems ...sighhhh...
guess I'll just transfer the account & file some kind of complaint to cause some pain.
haven't checked current price, but I did buy some GE today - posted it in comments.
just looked at a chart for the day ... bigtime ping pong.
the uptick rule would take care of most this nonsense.
true. frosty .. you're being converted .. good.
reason over ideology.
;-)
Office of Thrift Supervision shuts down IndyMac
Friday July 11, 7:09 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Office of Thrift Supervision steps in and closes IndyMac Bank; FDIC takes over operations
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators on Friday after succumbing to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
The Office of Thrift Supervision said it transferred IndyMac's operations to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation because it did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands.
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IndyMac customers with funds in the bank were limited to taking out money via automated teller machines over the weekend, debit card transactions or checks, regulators said.
Other bank services, such as online banking and phone banking were scheduled to be made available on Monday.
The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
"This institution failed today due to a liquidity crisis," OTS Director John Reich said.
IndyMac had $32.01 billion in assets as of March 31.
Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the holding company for IndyMac Bank, has been struggling to raise capital as the housing slump deepens.
A spokesman for the lender did not immediately return an e-mail request for comment.
The banking regulator said it closed IndyMac after customers began a run on the lender following the June 26 release of a letter by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., urging several bank regulatory agencies that they take steps to prevent IndyMac's collapse.
In the 11 days that followed the letter's release, depositors took out more than $1.3 billion, regulators said.
The FDIC planned to reopen the bank on Monday as IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.
OTS blamed the failure on a bank run following a June 26 letter to the OTS and FDIC from Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.) that expressed concerns about IndyMac's viability. Depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from the bank over the next 11 days.
good luck pitching tomorrow night Bud...in case it doesnt work out..keep that rosin bag nearby for your claw grip..if ya know what Im sayin.......HIIIIIYOOOOOO!!!
good weekend fellas
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