Is the Rich Man's Panic of 2007 over?
The Dow Industrials closed well over the July high. The S&P 500 cash is a bit under the old high. The Nasdaq composite closed over the July high and the Nazz 100 is way over the July level. The Russell 2000 is well under July, but broke up out of a bullish flag pattern signaling a continuation of the older break out of the ascending triangle. The NYSE composite is slightly under the July level. The Dow transports are well under the July high. So the "no" vote wins so far: 3 yes to 4 no. I think that's a maybe.
October brings earnings and the lots of worries. Ms. Market really needs to perform a bit more and get the big S&P and NYSE indices over the July levels to truly signal the "end of the end"
Right now, I'd call it the "Middle of the End"
And due to the antics of the innumerable virtual players in the markets, we need two closes over each level to rely on the signals.
Another hopeful sign is the decline in short interest. I think that means the recent years' infatuation with selling short might be ending. All that beefer money in 120/20 and 130/30 long/short funds might just go to long only funds. And the decline might also signal redemptions from beefers, particularly those silly market neutral and trading funds. We need more real investors to get a sustained bull market to record levels way over today's levels. Without them, it will be long bump & grind performance by Ms. Market.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
33 comments:
beefer raid on gold/silver....long overdue
yes, probably some dollar trade.
Bman....what is LIBOR?
easy english please.......so the common man can understand
LIBOR = London Interbank Offered Rate.
It's the rate that overseas banks can borrow dollars IN London.
There are other rates, like PIBOR, which is the Paris Interbank Offered Rate.
LIBOR was the first Eurodollar rate and is the biggest Eurodollar market.
Eurodollar = dollars in European banks.
there are various maturity terms for LIBOR borrowings, such as 30 days, 90 days, etc.
US banks with London branches/operations use LIBOR, too.
There is also a "LIBID" meaning the London Interbank Bid rate. That is the rate the banks can lend in London.
Bunkerman...C is good news... asset backed first haircut, will need another adjustment lower when home prices continue to decline...then they upgrade the hommies, who is that for...all clear...what a shame, the common man has no chance...how can they call a bottom in the homies when they can't even forecast their own earnings. the bear is the freind of the common man.
why should short funds go away with crap like this daily...even the bulls should understand that shooting against companies like C keep the common man from over paying for the blue plate special. GS and C, yes they are the devil.
XLF might be breaking the neckline/ascending triangle pattern up.
I've lived through hjome price declines - 1987 era was a lot here. It's not the disaster all make it out to be. Only forced sellers/refi's lose money.
It's irrelevant for the vast majority of homeowners who stay put.
Unfortunately the typical common man thinks about as much when buying a stocks as when buying a cabbage.
lol, I think the homie upgrade was probably just a thumb in the eye of the beefer. Maybe C wasn't getting enough business or wanted to get some commissions on the short covering.
Nonsensical calling a bottom there.
Frosty UNG shaping up nicely for you....wonder if beefers pile in there soon...
The homie shopper will not buy until next summer. The only buyers will be the white collar transfer and he may wait until the summer also. Homes will be much cheaper in 9 months. Those resets are going to create much more inventory. It will be interresting to see the range of prices on those foreclosures.
UNG...still would like to see another rinse to 37 to shake the tree one more time...the tea leafs do look good...Spin-em posed the best question, did they cancel winter...great line, beefers have little choice.
Spinny was last seen on a balcony in miami beach, drinking grey gooses and cranberry for $25 a pop...
Last nite's The War episode was very powerful. Some incredible stories about the hardships that infantry men went thru.
Anyone on this blog who thinks that by collecting guns and playing with them at the range makes them a some sort of soldier....well that's just ridiculous.
The difference between me and y'all is that I openly and freely admit i'm a coward. I don't have the courage and balls that men who serve have ( especially the guys in combat). Hence i'm not always pounding my chest and salivating for war.
We have some in this room who are cowards.....who never served.....but won't admit it.
All the republican nominees for presidents are cowards. Rudy's a pussy.
Cranberry? that's what girls drink on their period
Bud...sounding to me like you have yet to find the right balance of meds.
I guess you're a TV expert, eh Bud. You watch a TV show & figure you know it all. Sheesh.
And you are ignorantly demeaning the sport and enjoyment of all my Vietnam veteran friends - who saw plenty of combat - and my one living older relative who served in the Marines in the Pacific in WW II. You should at least have the intelligence to shut up when you know nothing except what a TV show tells you.
goose..rofl
Ill be watching tonight..Okinawa is where my dads ship (Ancon)was anchored for 3 weeks...5000 from the Navy died....from his ship, the radio message was sent to the world that the war was over.....should be some good footage....
Bunkerman what stocks do you like in the natural gas space? Thank you...
UNH WST taking some darkside sugar...if the rest of the tape get's a little sloppy, these will catch a light coat of beefer rotation paint.
I have CHK in nat gas, a long term play. COP has lots of nat gas, too. DVN, too. Those last two are oil plays, too. All long term.
GOOG is accelerating up
Bunkerman...perhaps you were a little firm with Bud this morning...teaching is a tuff job and the stress may have gotten' the best of you...tears falling like rain drops on Bud's key board...don't you feel just a little shame.
BAC breaking up from the triangle pattern
sheesh does Cramer read this blog? I mention GOOG and then he does.
BAC...just needs some news that they puked a zillion billion in so. cal. subslime and it is off to the races.
SKF...taking some darksider sugar...I just feel so dirty being in bed with these pigs...a statement trade for the common man.
Congratulations on your inviting and informative blog.
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Simon
www.PPrivateEquity.com/
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