Thursday, October 11, 2007

I Wonder ... ?

I read briefing.com - a subscription news service. I get the Platinum edition and read "Live In Play" in real time and overnight. So mirabile dictu ! This morning I see that Cramer says "a non-conservative but rational price estimate would be $900" for GOOG. I think that proves that he must read this blog [ hehe ;-) ] since I smacked him recently for being a wimp with that $701 price target. For many moons I've posted that GOOG is worth $900. Oh well, he's right this time :-)

I got a bit embarrassed pumping that stock so often here for many moons when it was around $500. It just bounced around awhile, but that's what stocks do as all remaining sellers are slowly erased. From the weekly chart you can see it's in "blue sky" country now and is coming off a huge multi-year base with multiple bullish continuation patterns [ascending triangle and cup & handle]. I have a good bit of it and plan to hold them awhile That's how the big money is made in a bull market.

Yesterday the beefers were playing ping pong with the energy stocks. They like to play with those, probably since the ETF is liquid as are its big cap components. XLE reversed up midday and closed in "blue sky" country, too. The weekly chart shows a multi-year base from 50 to 60 and the move this year cleared that base and the uptrend continues as a bullish cup & handle formed on the weekly chart and broke up yesterday.

I started a position in BNI [1/3 of a full position], the railroad stock, yesterday. See yesterday's "PS" comment for details. The chart formation is a bullish pennant after a break up out of a consolidation base. So now I'll wait and try to get a good entry for the rest the position using the time diversification principle to reduce my risk.

It's a bull market. Buy dips in strong stocks & groups. Hold them until something changes.

PS: Here is the strategy I laid out in response to a question yesterday in the comments. This is intermediate term thinking for the next three months or so. I added some [ ... ] clarifications.

"I'm as long as I want to be. When I sold some stocks in September when I posted them [the sales], I was about 200% long [before the sales]. Now I'm about 140% long. I have a few stocks I plan to sell into this move to get me to a point to 125% long.

"At that point as I close down my commodity account as the T-bills roll off [to cut "retirement" stress], I will be 100% after adding the commodity cash to my stock account.

"If we get dips in stocks I like I'll buy some. Or if I identify more strong stocks or groups. So I'll ride the trend as long as it looks OK and my thinking is not changed by news.

"I plan to sell some stocks that are becoming long term gains in a few weeks. I have big gains in them. [These sales refer to my cutting from 140% long to 125% long mentioned above.]"

31 comments:

Bunkerman said...

WMT raises guidance. Hmmm.

Bunkerman said...

jobless claims down. D'uh. Where's the weakness the bears foresaw?

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman kudos sir...your bull market call has been excellent...WARNING....excessive froth bubbling on a certain site geared for traders...

Spin-em said...

Congrats on the Tribe win Bunkerman.......

Bunkerman said...

uh oh. I remember that's not always a sign of immediate trouble, though. But it sometimes is.

The Russell 2000 is close to major resistance. Some beefers might bail there or hit it. Eventually it breaks up I think.

I'll stick to my "real" plan - buy any major dip if news doesn't change significantly.

Golly, your RTP is sure a stalwart. Thanks mfl59 - I'd have missed that, being an aged retiree ;-))

Bunkerman said...

Thanks spin. THe yanks are always my #2 pick if the tribe isn't a contender.

A-rod let them down, it seemed to me.

Bunkerman said...

I don't see the big surprise that oil inventory was down. The forward curve is backwardation so it doesn't pay to store & hedge.

Bunkerman said...

I did some research on the trade deficit. The August trade deficit was $57.6 bilion. Of that, oil and petroleum prodict imports was $23.4 billion, almost half.

I think that's interesting as so much of the trade deficit is oil. I conclude the problem re China and other trading partners is a lot smaller than people think.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...good post today...you can be my long term advisor anytime...just don't expect to get paid :)

Bunkerman said...

One thing I don't want, frosty, is a job. :-)))

Bunkerman said...

thanks for the compliment.

Bunkerman said...

getting paid for something = job

Frosty said...

MLF59...managing that gold corner like a real thief....aahhh I mean pro....so you gun KRY over the 3 handle big shooter?

Frosty said...

HOTT in heat with the retail beefer rotation squeeze play....going dark with a stop at the day high...no putting lip stick on this pig.

Frosty said...

UNH filled that break down gap yesterday....back on the darkside there...the hildog will crush these guys and leaning on it when it nears the 50 handle should provide good trades.

Frosty said...

KRY baby KRY...rip their lungs out MLF59...atta boy.

mfl59 said...

Frosty I like the bigger ones a little better than the cheapies...I sold some of them down a bit today....I'm always early though...too many bulls in gold now-probably needs a good shake...

Frosty said...

thanks MLF59...KRY always the last to move...virtual indeed.

Spin-em said...

first you kry...then you kry,kry again.........

Bunkerman said...

looks like beefer bears are making a stand, or trying a little ping pong.

Frosty said...

MLF59 anyone whisper to you that thursday was the misdirection beefer day...lol

mfl59 said...

BEEFER RAID!

Bunkerman said...

Hildog's had a good bit of plastic surgery.

Frosty said...

did one of those machines toss a fan belt...thought I heard something snape.

Frosty said...

Spinny must be back in town...has the gappa hammer...don't mess with him...fed speak my eye.

Bunkerman said...

it seemed like some panic buying or short covering that the computer beefers are reprogrammed to hit.

Or it's mfl's observation of excessive frothiness in trader funds.

I like being long term. These beefer shenanigans are really laughable.

Bunkerman said...

lolol virtual froth in trader space.

Spin-em said...

fish in a barrel comment in tank topper...

mfl59 said...

Bud calling to bring back the uptick rule!

Bunkerman said...

Actualy, I think that the uptick rule will probably be brought back when these antics get more understood out over time. If not soon, then eventually when the Street & beefer thievery gets more exposed.

Bunkerman said...

that nonsense in the QQQQ today shows that ETFs need the uptick rule, too.