Monday, October 22, 2007

Monday in the Bunker

A bunker might be a good place today to avoid more shelling and protect oneself from the bears. Futures are weak, Asia was down big except China & India and Europe is down.

The WSJ had an interesting story about high home prices in Europe hurting consumers.

I plan to just wait and think.

The Tribe lost games 6 and 7, so the Red Sox go to the World Series :-(( I'll be rooting for them since I always favor the American League over the fuddy-duddy, old fashioned National League. Go Red Sox !!!

I'm going to wait and am thinking about moving up a planned addition to my Krypto Fund. I'll do it on this dip likely.

The S&P cash is on the 50 DMA and the rough uptrend line. The 200 DMA is a bit lower, just under 1480.

After completely making a cluster FUBAR of my oft-preached time diversification, I'm a quite annoyed at myself. Expecting an October pullback and then missing it is quite inexcusable. I'm still susceptible to "buck fever", which is a hunter's term for getting excited and rushing a shot, causing a miss. That's a pretty good explanation for what I did.

So I'm being patient and am not going to rush this next add. The beefers are stomping around and looking for their payday. I suspect they are really hurting this year. I'll wait for a base consolidation and continuation pattern to form. But I think I'll send the money into the account to be ready to buy stocks at the right time.

16 comments:

Spin-em said...

Chartmans 15/8 rule can really save your bacon.....sell when the closing price is the lowest close in the past 15 days......buy the highest close in the last 8
I love it for the DIA,SPY,Q's.....the Q's havent cracked...51.65 sould be the battleground there(its the close that counts)

Bunkerman said...

hmmm I had never heard of that one, spin. Thanks.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...Indians had a good run...good group, hope they keep them together...Spinny has a second handbook coming out the 15/8. with the gappa book, a trader has the tools they need.

Spin-em said...

.....Dont forget in hardcover

....T-2108....
"SPINNY'S GUIDE TO FINANCIAL FREEDOM"

Never look at another chart again..

Bunkerman said...

This looks like a good day for me to go read a book in peace. Beefer stomping days annoy me.

Bunkerman said...

US gasoline demand is about identical to last year - no rationing.

World oil supply is flat. World oil demand is stil in an uptrend. So prices will go up until world oil demand flattens out.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...those pressing stocks down this morning taking advantage of no up tick feeling a little sick...homies even in the game...the up tick cuts both ways.

MLF59 must have taken a dump firday...vitual gold mist indeed.

Bunkerman said...

nah.. It's easier to knock stocks down than push them up. That is proven by the risk aversion of humans in general. Taking off that rule was really stupid, but the SEC staff got paid off by the Street.

Frosty said...

SEC, shame on you Bunkerman....the SEC is the friend of the common man.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...the lack of up tick rule is creating newly born bear cubs who gang tackle with the big beefer crowd...I see it every day...beaten up groups bounce almost on que...homies up third in a row...I doubt it is limited to individual virtual trades, we will call them beefer baby bears.

Spin-em said...

KBH green/red bars come in bunches

cubby

Bunkerman said...

hmmm so the virtual froth has increased. The next big upleg will crush all the baby bears.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...when there almost as many hedge funds as there are stocks, I couldn't agree more that many are in a fight for their lives...as you have noted, many shall die before a real turn occurs.

Bunkerman said...

Beefers had a bad year last year. A second in a row will kil many, I would think. I can't understand why the rich invest so much in them. Perhaps it's a fad ?

Actually, reading in Barron's, the entire "prvate banking" and private wealth management arena is a fad, too. Paying these dopes huges fees for underperformance is so stupid when one can pay dog biscuits and kick their asses, as in the Krypto Fund.

All that money in thousands of trading funds has kept this market undervalued by far.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...if you have some time, can you take a look at the tea leafs...not putting on the spot, but would like some color regarding today's commments on the subject...ty

Bunkerman said...

Unless someting really bad happens, I think the market consolidates and then goes up. Seasonal strength is close. The Fed is on the side of the bulls and I expect another cut next week. The beefers are all trying to get out of the same back door at the speakeasy when the cops knocked. So the winners are being tossed out to "lock in" profits.

I still like my stocks long term: oils, miners, select Internet raelated tech, AAPL, big banks.

At some time all this will be recognized as a copnsolidation action around the ols all time highs and the "woe is us" attitudes will vaporize.

The housing mess is getting worked out as the foreclosure buyers are clustering to scoop up the properties. In six months that will be over. The markets should soon recognize this.