I wonder about that ... does 21st Century man have a memory ? If he's a few years over 50 and a homeowner, he should remember one or two major declines in the value of his home. And those were paper declines from peak values. My home peaked in value 1987, then dropped about 30% in a couple of years. Did I care ? No. the trough value was still 50% over my basis and way over my mortgage and home equity loan balance. I still had a home and still had to live in it. So that paper value meant zero - an unrealizable number. Did I change any habits ? No.
Ten years past before my home reached that peak value again. Now it's about 50% over that past peak. Why hyperventilate about peak to trough numbers for an asset one has no interest or capability to live without ?
And most baby boomers are like me, unless they were and are spendthrifts. They live in a home they bought years ago and have a huge equity balance.
There was a recession in 1990 ... completely unrelated to the home value drop.
So why all this hyperventilating ? Has 21st century man become stupid ? I think not. I think most of America has no concern over this home value drop - they still have a home to live in and still need it. So nothing has changed for the bulk of people.
Speculators & spendthrifts are in trouble. So what ? Since when do they drive the US economy ? What other industry is in trouble ? None.
No recession ... buy good stocks on dips ... be patient ... It's always darkest [and coldest] before the dawn.
PS: The ECB is making the Fed look like amateurs ... ivory-tower pinheads. Financial leadership is being shifted to Europe :-((
PPS: The results of this "Term Auction Facility" of the Fed will be interesting. I don't really have an opinion, but will think about the results a lot.
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Hmmm ... fire at the EOB ... I wonder if Cheney was burning some files lolol ;-)
the TAF auction went OK, imho.
The amount of demand in the TAF was reasonable and indicates that writeoffs are nearly done in the US. An asset written off need not be financed.
Bunkerman...MS green today on those numbers saying anything to you...are you calling a bottom right here right now you little fin monster?
Bunkerman what do you make of this UNP news? I know you have a few rails and truckers in the model portfolio....
Bunkerman...took ORCL 1k 20.80 with earnings tonight...now here is the rub, I have no edge, none, zip...so, let's gamble with my money viva las vegas (nonono viagra)...hold or fold your call...gambling indeed...and they some say traders are not any fun...ppfftt a wise man once said.
"what other industry is in trouble"
lmaooooooooooooo
that's like sayin 'my overall health is fine other than the tumor in my brain'
banks and brokers have cancer......and so far it's spreading
MS green today doesn't say anythin ......i traded it too....meaningless
what's more meaningful is the ultra horrendous report.....5.7B in writedowns....sheeeesh frosty
frosty you used to work in a bank? where?.....the mail room?
Learn from Bud's parent's mistake. Don't have kids! loool
"Nobody....I mean nobody...comes into our house and pushes us around."
Dan Devine..Rudy
lool
yes Bud...back in the day we were even allowed to have our klan meetings after hours in the mail room...moving them from my van down by the river put me on a promotion path to grand wizzard...ah the good old days.
sorr, I've been shoveling my walk adn re-arranging office furniture in prep. for a delivery tomorrow ... argh I'm not young any more :-(
I think we're about at a bottom or wouldn't be loaded to the gills on the fins. The stocks relfect far worse than the reality will be.
I don't see the UNP news as any big deal LT. The truckers are hurting more unless re fuel costs. As fuel stabilizes, they get the surcharge.
I don't own MS. I think this whole mess will eventually hurt the brokers and help the big banks.
I have some ORCL LT. I figured 25 soon [aka 2008].
Uh ... Bud ... a problem in the banks+brokers is ... a rich man's panic. Very limited in time & scope.
Bunkerman...we need to test the heat of your hand...so, ORCL hold or fold for an earnings gamble, trust me I'm not worried about being wrong :)
ORCL is usually OK, but once in a while some bear finds something to pick at. I'm holding of course. They have beaten nicely a few times recenlty.
ORCL good numbers.
Bunkerman with the hand...well done fine sir...if I didn't know better I would say you were an Iowa State grad :)
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