The CPI number this morning is very important in my thinking. We need a downtick in core inflation. I'll update later in the PS's.
The S&P needs a second close over the prior recent high of 1461.57 to confirm this move. The Rut made a new high, too. Needs second day also. Beefers are probably piling into it to gin up some management fees for Q2. XLE up again. At some point I expect a sharp pullback there, but "the trend is your friend".
More rain & cold here - 34F this AM, heavy rain. We haven't had a single warm day yet this spring. :-(
Sky keep growing. Krypto really likes him as a friend & playmate. He likes to wake me up in the AM by jumping up & licking my face. :-)
I've been "backsliding" on my workouts [to borrow the term ascribed to Daniel Drew in the controversial book by Buck about that early Wall Street speculator]. I think the stress of my kitchen "purgatory" and the taxes got me off it. I've got to re-focus on getting my workouts in.
USDA crop progress report last evening showed corn & spring wheat planting behind 2006 and well behind the 17 year average. Peak planting time window is around April 25 in the main corn belt. Mechanization can get a lot of corn in quickly, so I'll be checking the forecasts closely. There is clearly a developing planting delay play; those can increase odds for a hot summer play IF they occur. Cotton planting is behind, too.
USDA crop condition report showed first effects of freeze damage of last week for winter wheat. Good/excellent dropped from 64% to 55% and Poor/very poor increased from 10% to 17%. Wheat is a resilient plant so we have to keep an eye on this. Some dryness in Ukraine/Russia and Australia is a concern, too.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
18 comments:
feels gud having no exposure. on cnbc they r talking about looking at the cpi core minus food energy and rent. ROFL what a joke. first off the higher natural gas went in march , which was a gud bit, the lower the rent portion will be. the vaiables in the cpi r a joke and they dont represent what it takes to pay the bills the month by month. but hey as long as people believe the cpi is below 7% i guess its all gud.
i feel like making a movie called the real inconvient truth, go around the country showing people real cpi's. if i cud find 1 thats at 2.8% or whatever the bls says core is i ll a big plate of dog do.
VT, what time the lawsuits start flying? was watching the press conference while working out yesterday. so the cop in charge said, the killer (we determined) had left the dorm and we assumed the campus. what a horrific mistake. im quite sure my college all the way back in the early 90's wud have all classes cancelled by 8am. we had 20k at dayton back then but most lived on campus (or the ghetto) the police call the dean, the dean call the head of each department and the shut the buildings down, that doesnt take 3 hours. u cud tell during that press conference they knew they messed up but cudnt say it. truly a sad day
Agreed Bunkerman. I think the big money already pricing in no rate cut anytime soon but any uptick in the CPI gonna make a rate hike a real possibility. What? Q2 just started....the beefers 'piling in' for fees. Isn't it a bit early in the Q to be worrying about commissions?
Yes, very, very sad. Also shows zippo forethought on any disaster or terrorist actions.
How can one "assume" killer left campus, [that presumes they knew who it was] and not conduct search for him. Don't police look for killers any more? Disastrous complacency.
Mern working families don't care what the CPI is. They know what their bills are. By the way, I sure hope you saw An Incovenient Truth. Bunkerman acts like an ostrich but you will find it very informative.
To forestall the gun agenda commentary, similar case of a disgruntled boyfriend killed about 90 with a can of gasoline at Happy Land Ballroom massacre in 1990.
Re Rut, Bud, could be too early for the motive I said, but "they" do seem to pile into IWM, etc. whenever they try to catch up for their errors. I've noticed that over recent times.
Bunkerman can you please explain to me why someeone needs an automatic weapon that shoots thousand of rounds in a flash? Do the deer run away after gettin hit with a couple bullets? How many more Columbines or Vatechs before congressman on the take from the NRA wake up?
Uh, Bud, they haven't identified the firearm yet, but tt seems like a police style common 9mm pistol. It shoots one (1) shot per trigger pull, like a revolver. They've been around for about 100+ years.
By the way, it's an aspect of the application of the concept of "freedom" that we can do or have a lot of things we don't "need" in the eyes of the lords in DC.
Btw, the "automatic" part of calling a pistol "automatic" means it cocks the hammer & loads the next shot after firing. A modern revolver cocks the hammer & loads the shot while the trigger is being pulled. BOTH fire one shot on each trigger pull. Both can be easy to reload with a little practice.
one 9 mlm and 1 22 caliber were the guns. guns like drugs, u make illegal, they become easier to get and organized crime gets involved, just like drugs.
saw inconvient truth , gore came across as a self abosorbed jerk. i aint buying his tripe. i liked moores movie better about 911. best was super size me.
if most of the planets around us r warming shudnt it at least be plausible that the earth is warming just becuase it wud be warming no matter what? maybe humans have effected to a certain degree like 5%, but seems like most of the that (seriously) is because of methane cow farts. the world is overpopulated, and we eat me, and we all poop methane.
im doing my part by not having kids.
im more concerned about the depletion of life in the seas around the world. that seems like a more pressing issue, and something we can actually fix. global warming is like the imus thing. as soon as a VT event happens everyone forgets about imus.
poor imus :-)
4 minutes to party time.
lets watch the artwork of the bls
im gussing the over and under on housing starts.
shocker
i bet VT prez and head of security fired by end of week. that place shud have been shut down by 745 am. the lawsuits gonna fly
a masterpiece ROFL
amazing ballsy ramp yesterday, almost like someone knew what was coming (like i suggested yesterday)
time to get 200% long
LOL 'masterpiece'. CPI looks solid. Bulls should be in control today. Fed on the sidelines for now.
"bls revives away the cap ut scare"
steve leisman LMAO
hit the open like SUN AAPL INFY covered half. even a little SLV
breadth pretty punk but improving
$ 81.60
FXY strong like bull, hasnt been gud for stocks last couple months
covered shorts, went long for a minute, back short now
im so virtual i doubt i even exist
Yup, Mern, you are very close to your anti-Mern ;-)
ned made cnbc so unbearable i put on fox news.
so a freaked out college kid probably whacked her, her new boyfriend and maybe a class they shared. they make it sound like its some big mystery.
the mystery remains y classes werent cancelled by around 8am.
that definitely wud have altered his plan.
tech is weak
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