Corn popped last night [hehe ;-) ] likely led by wheat on worries the cold & snow will hurt the crop. and worries the cold & wet weather will delay planting the huge corn crop. It's only April 9 and with mechanization, I think we've gone too far, too soon. December corn is at $4.00 major resistance. I'm selling my corn position here and will look to re-mount on a correction. The weather varies a lot & my forecasts suggest better weather later in April. I still think the crop will have more trouble eventually, but a temporary weather swing might get me a good re-mount.
India was strong overnight. S&P futures are holding Friday's gains and are facing resistance in the 1460-1461 gap. The chart shows a bullish C&H and an ascending triangle. Holding all stock longs. Lots of buyout rumors. I just heard another on huge Dow Chemical on Bubblevision. That would rate a "golly gee whiz" [that's more than a "wowza"] ;-) Too bad that's not in the Sky Fund :-( Shoulda got it at the 50 DMA. Oh well.
Gasoline demand is strong & supplies are down. So we are in a "supply rationing" phase. That's bullish for refiners such as VLO and integrated like MRO and XOM. Gasoline demand is up and stockpiles are below 2006 and the 15 year average. That means imports are needed and those might be hard to bring in with the rules & springtime increase in demand in Europe.
Copper warehouse stockpiles continue to drop as China restocks and the US economy is not as weak as bears "hope". If US housing gets a footing this spring, copper will move up a lot imho. I have the stocks - PCU, FCX, and diversified miners BHP, RIO and RTP - not the commodity.
PS: I might buy some June lean hogs today - a chart that looks like a bullish continuation pattern with some fundie backup (lower weights due to feed costs); also might start an XHB play. Mern mentioned a positive stochastics divergence (it's there) & I had been thinking the homies might get some traction this spring (a six-month trade). Also might add to my July cocoa long on this pullback as the bullish fundies are still there.
PPS: I did everything I said I "might" do except the hog play, as that market hasn't opened yet. I like the lean hogs EITHER on a break-out up OR a dip.
PPPS: I bought some hogs (June). I took another look at the chart & thought the bottom of the pattern was here. A close under 75 & I'm gone.
PPPPS: Quiet day. The real buyers lurk lower, waiting for the bears to sell them stock cheaply. Lots of Fed big mouths this week probably will bring some sell-offs. The next CPI number is very important - we need a down tick to move up, imho.
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did a lot of shopping this weekend. i see absolutely no inflation, none at all (lol). and the bls does it again. finds a strong # and finds extra jobs in prior months.
i wonder how the markets wud react if companys revivsed their earnings every month. like msft saying opps we made 40 cents not 35.
went through about 2k charts yesterday and found very very little. stochastic divg (positive on a lot of the homies).
have 8 longs and 0 shorts coming in, bulls in trouble. ;-)
I was thinking about homies this morning. I see that divergence on the XHB, too.
My guess is Buffet is buying rails since hey are an oligopoly. One can't build more railroads. He always liked companie slike Coca-cola with strong brands. Maybe the rail play is analogous logic.
I had lots $ in rails until my liquidation in February. Never re-mounted :-(
here is helene, makes sense to me
Before we move on, let's take a minute to question this employment report. If Robert Half (RHI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) has noted that things aren't good on the employment front, Monster (MNST - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) warned about soft revenue and Paychex (PAYX - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) didn't exactly meet expectations, then why is everyone so quick to believe the U.S. government's assessment of the employment situation? Nothing else seems to confirm it. It makes me believe that sentiment has changed from just a few weeks ago.
Well the ADP private sector only number was 106,000. And the household survey has lower unemployment rate. So the US employment number was compatible with those two. Three broad survey data points make a strong case for its not being a fluke. So Helene was a bit selective in her data choices.
was just going through some of jays thoughts headed into the INFY #'s this friday. he seems as bullish as ever. took a slug of that last week, wud be nice to add below 52
Positive divergence on INFY, too.
I own a lot from lower, or would buy, too.
well like 31% of the CPI is rent. that went up a lot recently.
food prices WOW i cudnt believe what i saw over the weekend.
and that pesky gasoline up about 35 cents in a month.
the CPI will probably be fine becuase the BLS makes it up (bureau of lying stats).
BKUNA, i hope, drops a ton. they loan money into the hardest hit areas of florida.
more and more houses getting foreclosed here and going on the block by the day.
i guess the fed shud lower rates, too bad inflation is going straight up and the unemployment rate is 4.4%
plus we entering the seasonally weak period. last may we got killed. maybe some bears will jump the gun.
im still long, but i cant understand y. the buybacks keep things up, so do the bears. and the buybacks help earnings, so does a weak $.
the govt paints one eco picture. corporations suggest the other. i wonder who is lying? ;-)
TLT below 87, the bulls mite have some explaining to do
There he goes again.......'the real buyers lurk lower' ....LOL.
P.S. Trivia.... What presidential candidate (and what year) used that line repeatedly in a debate?
hmm. seems reminiscent of Nixon's "silent majority" lolol. ;-)
oh, you meant the "There he goes again" -->> Ronald Reagan the greatest President of the 20th century. :-)))
[I was thinking of the people lurking around on earlier response]
I guess it was 1980 vs. Carter. & maybe against primary opposition.
He might have used in in 1984 vs. Mondale, too.
By the way, I saw both those Reagan debates & some of the primary debates, too. And have read his book. :-)))
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