Krypto Fund +4.8% ytd;
Alpha Fund +21.3% ytd;
Commodities +25% ytd.
Took some small wounds on recent commodity moves. And some of those "marker" positions are bleeding, too. Glad I didn't load up on anything. Commodities are pretty volatile & move contrary to news often. One has to be careful there. Year high in commodities was +35%. I still think I'm right, but am not doing any adding. My commodity book is now 1.5x capital measured on total contract value of the futures positions. Not excessive.
The WSJ story this AM was troubling regarding these "total return swaps" => looks like the regulators are asleep again. Obviously these are frauds on the margin lending rules.
Still long & strong at +150% in Alpha Fund stocks: energy, deep water drillers, India, miners, select tech (AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL, ADBE), some solar (Si's FSLR, JASO, TSL, SPWR), and some biotech (NVAX, BCRX, BIOM, BTRX, CRXL, PTN), takeover plays (HD, DOW), and AMSC & EDU. Energy & deep water drillers are 44%, India is 25%, miners are 14%, and the techs are 10%. The rest are small.
Today's monthly core PCE number is important -> we need a downtick for yoy.
USDA Crop Progress report is important, too. Need slow corn planting.
PS: The core PCE year over year was 2.1%, a very good number, down from 2.4% last month. :-) Disinflation rules!
PPS: Looks like a beefer bear raid starting around 2PM. I could wonder why, but I suppose expecting rationality is foolish with respect to beefers. The Rut is bearing the brunt of the raid. They hit oil & oil stocks around the same time.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
11 comments:
your wish is BLS mandate
:-)
good morning,
Bunkerman, when you have a chance, can you please write on how to valuate stocks (whether it is cheap or rich, all of it goes above my head?) Thanks.
On a different note, now that Tenet is writing a book, i guess cheney is the only left to write a book against this war, what a joke
OK, Si. I wrote two valuation posts already a few weeks ago or more (baseline no growth & low PE stocks). I have planned one regarding valuing growth. Perhaps I can do it when I return from NYC on Thursday. I am going to the Beast on Tuesday to meet my partner.
WFR meltdown again. JASO negative stochastic divg. hmmmm
love that JSDA chart, would be adding above 9d
JDSA looks like a legit 12345 with volume. Hmmm. 100x PE on 2007 estimates. It better not miss, or don't hold thru earnings due around 5/4 per Daily Graphs.
Looks like a beefer bear raid around 2PM. I could wonder why, but I suppose expecting rationality is foolish with respect to beefers. The Rut is bearing the brunt of the raid. They hit oil & oil stocks around the same time.
my two cents everyone remembers last may and stay away bs. maybe they right, maybe they wrong. i dont care. im actually looking to get into a normal 9-5 job. im losing whats left of my burnt out brain.
stupid JASO covered near 27 lol
who wants to bet me, if i stop trading (or trade a lot less), that will be it, bear market starts. that really wud be perfect.
but the reality is i want a kid and the wife aint down with having a kid while i sit at home, trade and throw the occassion caniption.
its not like i need much money, more i need a hobby besides sports and beer drinking.
and ive had to cut back on da beer. its the only way i can lose wieght, and im still running a hour a day, 6 days week.
first 7 lbs were easy. now im like 167 ish and its getting really hard. if i wanna wear my old suits gotta hit 155.
luckily i didnt burn any bridges in tampa and have quite a few options. not looking forward to driving again, mite have to treat myself to a new benz or something if i actually do this
:-)
Trading is a tough way to make a living. I think as a supplement to income it's easier psychologically.
There aren't any badges of glory sticking with trading. Long term happiness is what you have to seek.
I think one can make decent supplemental income doing what I do, month-trading part-time. No need to sit in front of blinking lights all day, either.
It would be tough to lose weight at your size drinking more that two or three beers a day, just on the additinal caloric intake.
Post a Comment