What! Me Worry?

That's Alfred E. Neuman's signature line in Mad Magazine. He's the goof-ball loser 12 year old character that Mad uses to introduce stories & parody people & movies.

I subscribe to Mad and read it occasionally - it's great fun! I like "Mad Look At ..." and the "Spy vs. Spy" and the fold-in back page best. Hehehe, yes, I read it as a pimply-faced 12 year old, too :-))

So I thought about the signature line this morning. It's October - always a dangerous month. In pre-war years [i., e., pre World War II] , this was due to the stress on the banking system as money flowed out of the money center banks in cities to the countryside as crops were harvested & sold. So any weakness was exposed and many, many panics & crashes occurred in October.

In modern times, the agricultural money flows are minor. But the October risk remains. The Crash of 1987 occurred in October 19, 1987 - almost 20 years ago. I don't know why October is still dangerous - maybe it's psychological - but it is.

So we have to worry and respect October. The stress on the banking system in Europe is a concern. US housing markets are a concern. Deutsche Bank reported a $3 billion charge for the usual suspects - leveraged loans, credit products, and mortgage backed securities. The US economy has momentum and the Fed rate cut helped it immeasurably in my opinion as before it their tight money policy was exacerbating a weakening trend.

But the charts are bullish, being at or near all-time highs in the DJIA and S&P 500. With the big stud - the Fed - on our side, the bulls have the edge.

Don't Fight the Fed. Don't Fight the Tape. Those were Marty Zweig's well known maxims. I think they still work.

It's a bull market. Buy dips. Hold until something changes. Worry and watch, but don't fold your hand.

PS: I read on briefing.com [Live Update on Platinum] that China became a net importer of coal for the first time in January 2007. That's bullish long term for BHP and BTU.