Wednesday, October 3, 2007

What! Me Worry?

That's Alfred E. Neuman's signature line in Mad Magazine. He's the goof-ball loser 12 year old character that Mad uses to introduce stories & parody people & movies.

I subscribe to Mad and read it occasionally - it's great fun! I like "Mad Look At ..." and the "Spy vs. Spy" and the fold-in back page best. Hehehe, yes, I read it as a pimply-faced 12 year old, too :-))

So I thought about the signature line this morning. It's October - always a dangerous month. In pre-war years [i., e., pre World War II] , this was due to the stress on the banking system as money flowed out of the money center banks in cities to the countryside as crops were harvested & sold. So any weakness was exposed and many, many panics & crashes occurred in October.

In modern times, the agricultural money flows are minor. But the October risk remains. The Crash of 1987 occurred in October 19, 1987 - almost 20 years ago. I don't know why October is still dangerous - maybe it's psychological - but it is.

So we have to worry and respect October. The stress on the banking system in Europe is a concern. US housing markets are a concern. Deutsche Bank reported a $3 billion charge for the usual suspects - leveraged loans, credit products, and mortgage backed securities. The US economy has momentum and the Fed rate cut helped it immeasurably in my opinion as before it their tight money policy was exacerbating a weakening trend.

But the charts are bullish, being at or near all-time highs in the DJIA and S&P 500. With the big stud - the Fed - on our side, the bulls have the edge.

Don't Fight the Fed. Don't Fight the Tape. Those were Marty Zweig's well known maxims. I think they still work.

It's a bull market. Buy dips. Hold until something changes. Worry and watch, but don't fold your hand.

PS: I read on briefing.com [Live Update on Platinum] that China became a net importer of coal for the first time in January 2007. That's bullish long term for BHP and BTU.

30 comments:

mfl59 said...

DB up 5 on that news....lol

Bunkerman said...

sheesh. I heard the commentary early that these announcements ares "quantifying" the subprime mess. That's an interesting point. It does look like so far that about $50 billion overall is the number.

maverick said...

FXI seeing the dark paint

Bunkerman said...

FXI had gone parabolic

mfl59 said...

i shorted some DB earlier...I am a bit skeptical that it can hold such a large gap...virtual of course

Bunkerman said...

beefer rotaing out of oils, miners continues.

BTU strong. The China story?

Frosty said...

the bunker full of bears...MLF59 shooting gappas...Mav raiding the chicom's...Bunkerman with the pain of Oct's past...you guys a freaking me out.

Bunkerman said...

lolol frosty, I'm still long but cautious for adding more.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman are you as bullish on agricultural commodities as Jimmie Rogers?

Bunkerman said...

Not really long term. I think the stupid ideas of getting energy out of food will be rejected in a few years. Short term, the weather really matters a lot. As does South American expansion.

Farmers always plant too much eventualy and cause a bust.

Bunkerman said...

Some like cocoa seem really bullish, though as Chinese & Indians start eating chocolate.

Frosty said...

Bunerkman...where is Bud...he's missing a rant opportunity...those that make our big screens, nike shoes and wal mart tube socks can't afford a snickers. do you have no shame sir.

Bunkerman said...

don't know, frosty.

lol re the chocolate.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...you watching some of these small chicoms run...just amazing...beefers gonna' wreck the common man...I must admit to playing on both sides, but even a long term investor like me must sell when up 100% in a handfull of hourly bars...what do you make of this rediculous action...should I pack up and head to my mountain bunker?

feeling a little chicken hawk pussy like.

Bunkerman said...

I'd say the beefers and traders want a payday, so they run them to suck in the common man dope. We've seen that kind of action before. After awhile they suckers are washed out and the game is over until new suckers come in.

I don't see any affect on the overall market.

One of the decisions I made when I retired from trading was to not bother with the little flyers. I don't even look at them. My only "four letter" stocks are the ones like GOOG adn AAPL and ORCL and CSCO.

Bunkerman said...

Shorting those runners can be very dangerous until they give a topping signal. Wait for them to start to go down, in my opinion.

I remember people shorting those too early in another forum last year - many got hurt or beaten up.

mfl59 said...

seems they should bring back the uptick rule to save the common man from himself in some of these chinese fliers...

maverick said...

now chicklet free but FXI darkness making the payroll for the week

Bunkerman said...

true mfl. Shorting a rocket leads one to be impaled.

Frosty said...

Maverick...your FXI tea leafs look alot like it did first of the year...top, gap down and quickly worked it's way down to test the 50 sma.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...you a Spin-em matched up tonigt...the tride is on the war path...do you get tv reception in the bunker or listen by radio.

Bunkerman said...

Heap big TV in the bunker, frosty.

Go Tribe!!!

Spin-em said...

Good luck to your tribe Bunkerman...may the best team win.

not tonight though frost...manana

Frosty said...

$ndx gappa 2076...bulls doing the right thing....get it covered up before they move to far...less painful...Spinny handbook.

maverick said...

yes Frostman...fill by middle of month then back to business

Bunkerman said...

good, tomorrow I can watch the game in Ohio.

Frosty said...

Maverick...I was thinking it fills this week but what do I know.

maverick said...

maybe Frostman but surely by middle of month

Bunkerman said...

this action looks like beefer ping pong / water hole stomping.

Setting up a move through S&P 1555.9

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...you showed great caution this morning...now we are poised to break out? I understand things change and change fast, but what changed your view.

You need to remember you have the common man like me attempting to keep up.