This really sucks. We are supposed to get snow today, maybe a few inches plus sleet depending on the breaks. :-((
The dandelions are having a hard time. The crocuses are very late. The deer are running out of food. The chipmunks came out of hibernation for this? And we're supposed to believe that "consensus" climate model forecast for 100 years. They can't get 100 days close! What a crock!!! Gee, do you wonder why I think they just make that stuff up to get grants?
Yesterday's FOMC minutes had nothing new, if one was paying attention. S&P 500 cash support looks like the 50 DMA and the rough up trend line around 1428; below that 1410. So far, yesterday looks like a normal reaction [a Jesse Livermore term]. Imho, it's very important to try to distinguish a normal reaction from a real change in character.
An Elliot Wave analysis of the S&P looks like the correction was a 5 wave move, but some wavelets were just a couple days long. The up move since has formed 3 waves up; not clear yet if wave 3 is done, but it could be. The up move went too far to be an A-B-C correction of the down move. I think the PPI and CPI numbers will govern the market over the next ten days. and maybe set the character for the next few months. I expect an up move to the recent highs, maybe breaking them, but the news will determine that.
Seasonal strength will end in a couple weeks. But one wonders if last year's May swoon already happened; being brought forward by anxious beefers.
It's probably a trader's market for awhile - lots of chop & beefer ping-pong. Real buyers lurk lower & LBO/private equity providing stock specific floors that will help prop up the indices.
I still think the leaders this year will be energy, miners, some Internet-related tech & emerging markets like India. That's where the Alpha Fund has its bets.
PS: before one comments that it's not "fair" to criticise the global warming propaganda crowd for this weather, one should note they said the warm January was due to ... human-caused global warming. Maybe this snow & cold spring is due to human-caused global cooling? After all, they blame mankind for everything.
PPS: A female turkey is eating seeds on the ground under one of my bird feeders. Truly a "big bird" :-) [ In case you didn't know, a female turkey is mostly brown to be camouflaged in the nest. Most female birds have sedate plumage for similar reasons. ]
PPPS: massive sleet storm here now. And I'm doing my taxes :-(( I'm glad Sky the puppy is so much fun, or it would be really depressing.
PPPPS: Sky must think I'm a big dog like Auntie Krypto - he just grabbed my cheek to play like he does Krypto. He's in my lap helping with Part III my AMT form [ lolol] - good thing he's so smart. :-)
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weighed in 169.6 (another 1.5 lbs without hgh, lol) think it gets tougher from here. just have to run everyday. today will be tuff becuase very soar from a 90 minute scrimage last nite. actually got a bit of a sunburn from being outside at 7pm last nite.
over the yrs ive noticed, even in the best tapes, a run up into earnings is usually met with selling. RIMM and AA give me that vibe.
as for the PPI i have no idea, the CPI shud obviously be up up and away but the bls controls it, so we will see. Mfl emailed the rudy g (my boy for prez) was interviewed and asked what a gallon of milk cost and he said a buck 50. its about 2.83 here at wmt, 3.25 at publix. ill bet the cats at the fed dont even pay thier own bills. i see every penny that gets spent in my house. everything is going up except tvs and computers and have 6 of each, probably dont need more anytime soon.
water bill up, electricity up, milk, gas, quotron, eating out, everything up. retired folks r leaving here and naples in droves becuase they simply cant afford to live in florida anymore becuase not only r they dealing with that but homeowners and property taxes add another 10% to the florida cpi (actually a lot more for me personally, im just guessing).
south park, what a nite. got home around 915 was ready by 930. first was their "global warming" episode, which is very funny (especially if u have scene the movie the day after tomorrow). plus rippage on the katrina train wreck, and of course kartmen and his antisemtic humor was top notch.
at 10pm they aired a new episode, and for long time fans, this cud have been the best of the bunch so far. just when u think they cudnt shock u anymore, they do. the writers, trey and matt, are some sick sick individuals. :-)
im sure they r already working on an Imus episode becuase this cud be the dumbest thing a bored media has trumped up in my life. black people r very racist. if they werent they shud be on tv calling for record labels to fire almost every rapper on the street. imus's audience is adults not kids. adults already have opinion, kids dont. kids listen to rap, and the language is so horrific we dont need to discuss. so why isnt obama and sharpton worried about the children? i mean for gods sake, its always about the children, right?
black people need to listen to charles barkely. u r black, makes some things harder, some easier in this country. bottomline u in the USA, do something with your life or its your fault.
there i said it
VG ceo steps down. LOL LOL
RIMM cc wasnt bad at all. mite be worth a flip near 136 with a tight stop
import prices cud actually move us in this inflation wary tape.
exp 2.2 yoy .7 mom
Uh Bunkerman........the reason forecasters are having a difficult time predicting the weather is global warming. The 'regular' or 'normal' models for prediction are being thrown out of wack. Getting snowstorms or abnormaly cold weather at odd times gonna occur more frequently. That is one of the dangers of the climate problem. Thank you for making my point.
P.S. When you say it's a 'trader's market'....does that mean it's all virtual? Or are there 'real' traders as well as 'fake'? I know what I am.
Actually, Bud, the historical record contradicts you. Unusual weather is more correlatated with ... cooling. See "Climate, History and the Modern World", by H. H. Lamb, a book by an eminent climatologist that I've actually read.
There are few "real" traders by definition. They are mostly virtual: it's just a matter of degree how "virtual" they are. A trader just trades - buys & sell or sells & buys - no expectation of holding the stock for investment. But a month-trader who buys on expectations of news or short-term economic swings is pretty close to being a real buyer or seller. So I think month-trading is "real" and can move prices beyond virtual fluctuations of the sea of ST traders.
coldest april in 113 yrs, lol
the $ is broken down below 82.50, makes inflation worse and fed less inclined to lower rates. but it cud be making a positive stoch divg. witch wudnt shock me. the $'s slide has been gradual and when it gets oversold like this, it usually rallys. took it off the meat of my SLV long near 139.
shud be another fun day
This is your kind of market, Mern. "Make hay while the suns shines."
dont wanna be a pig, im covered up. actually made some money shorting. :-)
i mite even nibble on some longs. took a little INFY here will add. shudnt go down after earnings, and maybe, probably bounce
lol the bears have blanks. the wall of worry is as steep as a double black diamond in aspen, but the house is liquid.
bud, i swear, im going to the overnite place (gotta send in more money than i thought, according to my accountant, yuck!). so im gonna overnite your tie dye (which i didnt wear once, which i cant believe becuase its sweat). and the boca show. ive been listening to it lately. that 2nd set was sublime. the energy was flowing that nite. i love that little venue at mizner
Don't send my tie-dye right now. I'm in Virginia ...won't be back in Florida for a couple weeks.
NGA breaking out. maybe on imus getting canned? rofl!
well give me the stupid address in vg. call me. i dont like going to the post office
S&P 1440 recaptured intraday. If it closes over that, yesterday gets relegated to a beefer raid.
Looks like the real buyers stepped up this AM. I thought they'd wait for better prices.
i would like to add Solar stocks to your list of winning sector for this year, Bunkerman, some of them have very good numbers
Tough for a mellow guy like me to buy those four letter stocks, Si ;-)
I have AMSC for a long term play (not a solar).
Hmmm. Have to rethink that. I guess if solar stocks have good numbers & it's not all tax credits, etc., maybe I should find some. Maybe that industry is becoming real.
bud i 2 dayed your shirt and cds. i threw in a bonus cd from my red rocks shows from 2003.
i cant believe u walked out of that show at mizner. that show was simply crackling with energy.
how they do what they do, ill never understand. kinda like watching hank hit 755 with a higher mound, longer parks, and no steroids
nice day here, thx u mister Somaney!
fwiw flipped half of my INFY 1500 keeping the rest
JASO, TSL, SPWR, FSLR are some in the solar sector, easily the leading group now
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