Yesterday's selloff on no economic news made me think it was caused by beefer liquidations and margin calls sparked by the auction off assets of two Bear, Stearns CMO hedge funds. A number of CDO/CBO/CLO securities were also downgraded in the past few days due to unexpectedly high delinquencies. So every beefer holding that stuff - that's many, many - got a big haircut and probably had to lighten up on a lot of other more liquid positions to maintain a safe margin of solvency.
Mern's late comment yesterday was a good data point that this process is happening and affects some aggressive brokers, too. Thanks, Mern.
So I think this dip will create a good buy point - just like the one a couple weeks ago - when the dust settles. Perhaps at the S&P cash 50 DMA?
XLE got hit hard - again I think it is beefer liquidations and / or traders rotating or shorts. The oil inventory data is a non-event. The oil companies can make that number whatever they want by managing imports. Gasoline demand was up again year over year. That means higher oil prices over time and strong refining margins over time. Energy stocks have had a great run and might rest awhile. Again, let the dust settle and look for a good entry if you need one.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
37 comments:
How did corn and wheat do overnite?
Corn up & down then flat. Wheat up 4 cents
Uh, Bud, if you're speculating in commodities, be careful. Heed my warnings about position size. If you get wiped out, I'll feel really bad.
Blackstone IPO: no opinion for a trade. As an "investment", I wouldn't pay 10 cents more than book value. Just a greater fool theory play, imho.
how many days must one wait before shorting an IPO? I'd love to short the opening print of Blackstone....biggest sham IPO since the bubble days....how people think they actually create real value is beyond me....
Roflmao....'feel really bad.' Uh Bunkerman....I'm a big boy.
P.S. I don't cry like most do when they lose....'they ripped me off...the game is rigged......guys had info i didn't have'.....etc Our markets are fair and efficient.....it's a fair fight as far as i am concerned.....when I lose it's always my fault.
I've got wiped out on a few investments over the last 15 years. ( I got hammered in Enron) Never once did I piss and moan or wanna suit somebody. Always tried to learn from my mistakes. There was an intersting interview on bloomberg the other day of MohnishPabrai. He said that he only learned from losing trades. Same here.
Lil'bush was pretty lame last nite. The first episode was great. Big drop down to #2.
Where is crude resistance?
August crude resistance is here, about 70.
Blue sky over 70 on daily; On weekly it's here at 70, too. Ove rthat there is some resistance around 75-76
This private equity tax issue is really being mislead - that taxes are on the MANAGERS' incomes, not on the private equity returns. These guys are intentionally obfuscating this.
ah the summer of mern continues, i just woke up. :-)
becoming more like costanza by the day. today ive got a block of cheese ready to eat, while watching my afternoon soaps.
i kinda figured lil bush wud lose its thunder after 5 episodes. i fell asleep while it was on, so it was boring.
900 brokers trying to figure out if they have a job and paycheck coming. that stinx
everything is for sale down here. practice last nite, new place, closer to my house, but roads i never go down. i saw hundreds of homes going up, a many many "for sale" signs many with "new price" or "just lowered price". even in my neighborhood i noticed a house exactly the same as ours with a pool selling for 269.
i guess that means my house is all the way down back to what i paid in 2004, 246. it cud have sold for 400 in jan 06.
so the fed can cut rates to help housing and the clearly slowing US consumer. unless SBUX, TGT, WMT and BBY r not gud proxies for the US consumer. but thats gonna whack the $ and i think let the long end move higher in yield.
yes sir, ive said this many times. elmer left ben a big fat mess!
the vatican has a new 10 commandments! (LMAO)
You shall not kill.
The road shall be for you a means of communion between people and not of mortal harm.
Courtesy, uprightness and prudence will help you deal with unforeseen events.
Be charitable and help your neighbor in need, especially victims of accidents.
Cars shall not be for you an expression of power and domination, and an occasion of sin.
Charitably convince the young and not so young not to drive when they are not in a fitting condition to do so.
Support the families of accident victims.
Bring guilty motorists and their victims together, at the appropriate time, so they can undergo the liberating experience of forgiveness.
On the road, protect the more vulnerable party.
Feel responsible toward others, and only molest boys under 12.
once again the catholic church misses most of the basic rules, that shudnt be broken. such as, dont drive unless your blood alcohol is below .2. or u cant talk on a cell phone while putting on your makeup. or in a two landed road, the guy in the fast lane shudnt be driving parrel to the guy in the slow lane.
i met some cat at my watering hole last week, he was really trying to get my to go back to catholic church. i just crushed him. i love the people who believe in adam in eve, they take about 15 seconds before u have spun thier entire world around :-)
Are 'real' buyers gonna buy this dip today? I'd like to follow them....i'm not aleader..just a follower.
Looks like they nibbled while I was outside. But I don't know if the liquidations are over.
Bunkerman, you have been spot on this whole bull move. Great work
Thanks Si. I'm just a humble thinking man, not a trading god ;-)
At some point I'll get fooled or miss something.
There's no "backlash" against private equity. Just a backlash against billionaires not paying a fair tax rate on their compensation. Sheesh.
I guess those PE guys think they are marcher lords or dukes and are a different estate than the common man. Special priveleges ... sheesh.
anyone have quints new websites address?
bud u still sticking with pacman? nice video tape footage!
what a ......, u know! :-)
silver below 13, get the buy tickets out, but havent done anything yet
philly fed???? what the pt. the manufacturing base has left philly, what is there to measure?
even freaking tasty kake moved. whats next? pats steaks? there is nothing left. its a dying city/state.
its a great state, beautiful, but it was mostly blue colar. heroin and murder r skyrocketing across the state. pittsburgh and philly r just riddled with heroin addicts. my feelings r, that once oxycotins became very available that was the gateway drug for heroin. i seriously just cant imagine jabbing a vein for a buzz, and i love to get wasted. just the fact that every single person ive ever seen try heroin dies or just becomes a slave, y wud u ever do it even once?
SLV right on its trend line from june 06 low at 10. gonna nibble in the ole IRA
folks , if you are looking for new stock ideas, MTL showed up on scan this past week end. it is a tough scan to get through, all the criterias that he discusses in his book. only 2 stocks showed up this week. MTL is a weekly c&h break, even though the handle is not perfect
i forgot to mention, it is bill oneal
Quint's new website? did he leave the tank?
Felony coercion? I never even heard of such a crime. Of course the US had a long and proud tradition of charging black males with...uh...'crimes'. It's so disgusting. Mern you really need to brush up on the history of abuse and bigotry againts black men in this country.
Roflmao....the 'witnesses' against pacman are strip club bouncers and employees. Ya...they would never lie. Lolololol
USA vs. Canada tonight in the Gold Cup semifinals....Canada has a vey good, yet underrated side....the US will have to bring their best to advance...
I have to go to an appt. soon. A bounce off the 50 DMA on higher volume would look good, if it happens. So far volume is up on the NYSE vs. yesterday thru 1:30.
Good luck.
Mega IPO pricing tonight.....today's tape has a Frosty type paint job allll over it.lol..booyaaa
....not that there's anything wrong with that...lol
Back ... hmmmm ... Bears are tenacious, or have their backs against the wall & are desperate.
The bearish rationalizations sound more & more screechy. Like this phony private equity manager tax issue being painted like it's an attack on the actual private equity - it's not.
bud u r probably right in general but there is a video tape of pacman "making it rain", hitting people, and pulling a stripper by the hair.
trouble doesnt find u as often as it does him, unless u r an out of control idiot
ya Quint left rev and started his own gig. i dont know his site though and wanted to take a peak
Too bad re Q that it didn't work out for him. He seemed like a reasonable fellow.
Listening to this Blackstone crap, it's a horribly structured offering. Pure greater fool theory at work. They're offering air at a high price. Not shorting, though. That's for you traders.
Post a Comment