The Fed ends its two day meeting today. The statement is important and we need to read it exegetically with an open mind. Don't listen to the dirty eisegetors ;-) It's what the Fed actually says that matters - not what some pundit says they said or should say.
I think the Fed "should" relax the inflation bias by recognizing the downtrend in core inflation and that recent measures has it in the comfort zone. They "should" explicitly say the balance of risks is equal between the economy and inflation. I think we have a decent chance of getting this statement and it would be bullish. A two day meeting and the anniversary of their last rate rise seems to be a good time for this policy change.
Remember that it's Day 2 action that matters, not the beefer induced swings in the first 15 minutes.
PS: exegesis and eisegesis: both relate to critical analysis of texts. Here's how to remember which is which. 'ex' is the prefix for "out of or from", so exegesis is analysis out of or from the text itself. "ei" has the "i' and is pronounced "ay" as in "ay-ay, captain". So "eisegesis" gives you what "I" think - what the analyst thinks, NOT what the text says.
PPS: I thought dogs were supposed to be carnivores! I took my dog, Spike, with my trip to Ohio. And she's been pestering me to get my strawberries. Bap! I get the paw smack to the leg to get my attention. And she sits up & looks like she's starving lololol. Yes, I succumbed. She got three bits of strawberry that she gobbled up. Spike likes fruits & vegetables.
P^3S: Santelli on Bubblevision keeps asking about monetary aggregates re the Fed and ECB. When I was in Fischer Black's class at B-school many years ago it was when monetarism was taking grip. So we kept asking him and using it in our class. He always asked "what's your definition of the money supply" and would proceed to demolish it. He proved in class once how money was not needed at all for credit expansion. He believed that policies based purely on "money supply" were doomed. I think the ONLY definition of "money" that works is the old monetary base or MZM or whatever they call it now. Measures like M3 are meaningless as they reflect much more and are really results, not causes.
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Sometimes you really have to read the papers very closely to understand what is going on. I read with some surprise recently that lobbyists are pushing congress for a 'bailout' of distressed borrrowers. Wow! I was shocked to learn that poor working people actually had lobbyists. In an excellent Nytimes editorial today I learned that it is actually the Wallstreet firms that are lobbying congress for this relief. But why? If congress helps these borrowers , in turn they would 'rescue' billions in investments based on theses subprime mortgages. And that is what Bearstearns, goldman etc... all want. Maybe there is something to all of Bunkerman's rants against the 'rich and powerful'. Just this one time I possibly may agree with him.
It also is pretty funny that Wallstreet always want the US government to stay out of it's business (which i agree with). Except of course when they are losing money....then they are always lobbying congress for a bailout. LOlololol
Tivo'd lil'bush. Is it worth watching Mern?
Wall Street is full of pigs & piranhas. They love to rationalize why they should pay low taxes and get subsidies and protection. All for the good of the people lolololololol.
lolol working people have lobbyists - good one, Bud.
Perhaps you are learning exegesis ;-)
Fine point Bud....wall st. pushes the envelope as far as they can, and when they go too far then they want Uncle Sammy to come and help...greed begets more greed...
Hubris seems to be a fitting word to describe it, perhaps...is this a $10 word bunkerman?
yes, mfl, hubris is definitely a $10 word. It means "excessive pride" and fits their attitude.
I am actually planning a post on hubris and anti-hubris soon, but not on that particular applicatin.
lil bush i dont know. got home from practice (exhausted) and the worden wanted a service call. it had been so long i figured i bet take advantage of the situation before came to her senses.
did watch south park last nite. at 930 they played the paris hilton episode, while she was on larry king. for some reason i think southparks version is more accurate than paris's version last nite. during the commercials i flipped on larry king. paris trying to act smart and saying she never uses drugs was pretty funny.
paris will be more and more popular the dumber she gets. when she acts responsible, its too pathetic to watch.
shudnt mike moore get to at least a biscuit under 300 before he goes after the health care industry. the guy is a walking heart attack/ stroke waiting to happen.
broke 160 this am, weighed in 159.2.
9.2 lbs to go.
if this works im writing a book. "the miller lite diet". its basically has a few key rules. 1. run everyday for at least an hour. 2. drink at least 3 miller lites a day and at the most 12.
3. eat a banana for breakfast, and a low carb hi protein dinner with some vegies.
so HGH involved. so lets get this straight. benoit had a retarded kid because his sperm were so polluted by the steroids he was on. so the solution was more steroids for the kid and when it didnt work he waxed everyone involved. then the WWE releases a statement the roids werent a factor in the outcome. ya practically every 7 yr old has track marks on thier arms.
this country is all or nothing. either way fat or way too skinny. either a fall down drug addict or a born again bible thumper. what ever happened to moderation??????
like right now, im gonna smoke just a little weed
;-)
ryan howard first to 100 homers by 65 games (325). ive heard a rumor that the phillies mite bring Spin up for their next start. its either Spin or pittisons #1 hs pitcher. LOL
rofl mern.....Happy to hear the warden let ya back in the game...you've been ridin the pine way too long...
"I can do it coach"(Rudy)...got my fastball up to 62mph....Yanks pay better and I should fit right in..
no grapes or raisins for the pup bunkerman..very bad for the kidneys...
Die Mets Die!!!
ya i had splinters in my butt. shes not down with the summer of mern.
my dogs with eat anything (almost). one we put down in nov, she was maybe 17,loved beer and bananas.
cherise (shes 10) will eat anything. last week she spat out onion, thats the first thing she never ate. last nite she ate the wardens pants. brand new, ruined
The Spice Girls, who burst on to the music scene with "girl power" and attitude in the 1990s, have reunited for a world tour, their Web site said on Thursday
in other news, bud just got excited
Reckless lending and the egregious use of leveraged capital has permeated our financial system, raising the risk that the subprime disaster is the leading edge of a deteriorating credit cycle and that its effect will be chilling.
The key to the ultimate impact will be the slope of the economic cycle. If the bulls are correct and a sustained period of economic growth (free of inflationary pressures) is in the cards, credit problems will likely be contained. If I am correct that we are moving toward a recession in early 2008, the subprime mess will be only the tip of the iceberg, and problems will move up the credit ladder.
ROFL dougie
The incident: dog excrement found on the roof and windows of the Romney station wagon. How it got there: Romney strapped a dog carrier — with the family dog Seamus, an Irish Setter, in it — to the roof of the family station wagon for a twelve hour drive from Boston to Ontario, which the family apparently completed, despite Seamus's rather visceral protest.
mitt romney, for president? he belongs in jail!
I hadn't heard the grapes & raisens are bad for dogs, but I've never given them those. Onions are bad for them, though. Maybe that's why your dog spat them out, Mern.
Chocolate can be bad, as some are allergic to it.
hey bub...you have plans for the 4th....we will be moving the RV out to the fair grounds next week and will be enjoying a little rodeo action the 3rd and 4th....I figure since we won't be killing any animals you would be down...just a warning, when rodeo stock breaks down, it is distroyed.
Rodeos are cruel. Just a notch below hunting and fishing. Get out of the white trash redneck hillbilly world frosty.
As long as charlie mauel is in charge of phillies....mets not worried.
Clemens back with the yankees!!! Lmaooooooooooooooo
I luv Posh Spice!!! She is hot !!! Sporty is pretty sexy too.
LMAOOOO..."I've got no where else to go"
Pedro pitching bp...lmaoooo $$$
...but ya still get your check right?(My Blue Heaven)
the "family friend" whining indicator keeps its perfect record alive in gold and silver...rofl...yeah i know...prince of darkness...
mfl's "family friend" on July 4
Hey mfl..come on over!..we're lighting some fireworks...
mfl...."sure..be over in an hour Bob"
(mfl runs in house and calls the cops)
...lmaooo
uhhh, Spin, his name is Bill, not Bob...lmaoooo
ryan howard is making 900k this yr.
while 30 mil of the payroll is on the DL and not coming back.
actually manuel not doing a bad job considering 3 of the 5 starting day pitchers and your closer r on the DL
mern big interview tomorrow?
Hmmm oil over $70.
bunkerman...hhmmm as in the inflation bias is less likely to be adjusted with oil at a 70 handle?
I think the PCE number this AM has more influence. But no single number makes the difference. The Fed knows they don't influence the price of oil.
My Hmmm was wondering why the oils got sold off the past few days.
ya. i think this is the one where i get the offer and talk #'s.
i think im fine unless they want me to pee
:-)
natural gas down 5% today, thats gonna give an uptick to the core CPI.
its pretty obvious inflation for most americans is 5 to 10%, just to live the way u did the yr before.
but i dont think can deal with that reality. we have an asset based economy. if the assets stop going up (ie stocks and real estate) a big recession is likely. bunkerman is probably right and i wudnt be surprised if the went to a bias towards a cut. just because sub prime has clearly spread.
the big variable is will the $ just continue its steady drift lower or break 80 and splat. i have a feeling my trip to paris is gonna be expensive even though its all expenses paid
boy the florida crackers aint too bright. we were practicing last nite when a guy about 40 yrs old says to me. "wow its still light out at 845 and its only june"
LMAO, had to explain the summer solitice and dates. i swear to god he didnt even know it was a set date, he just thought the days get longer in the summer and shorter in the winter, till they dont. and he has a college degree! we r pretty gud friends so i was ripping on him pretty bad, then asked if he went to college.
im pretty sure ive been aware of those dates june 21 and dec 21 since i can remember, before age 6.
saw 5 houses in a row for sale last nite. GUD LUCK!
I guess natural gas is going to be free soon. Sheesh. That trade has stunk. The original entry was poor and the add sucked.
I'll still in it and bleeding.
:-((
commodities can be very hard sometimes. :-((
Sen. Shelby is an idiot. He can't distinguish betwen the private equity MANAGEMENT and the fund investors. What a dope !
Bunkerman...so you have an add point for nat gas?
out of those index products from tuesday fwiw.
I'vw been thinking about an add in nat gas, but until I return to my usual system & research, I can't.
ditto re corn.
ditto re buying gold.
I7m fish out of water here. Mostly blind. Massively distracted.
ben stopped smoking crack, i think
Oh well, he Fed wants more proof. Not a huge surprise.
The Fed did put a stake in the heart of the Fed to raise bears.
Waiting for more proof is not bearish. But if the core keeps dropping another quarter, the rate cut to 5% becomes logical.
Amazing how bears grasp at any tortured theory or speculation to remain bearish.
I think it's obvious if the economy weakens any significant amount due to subprime, the Fed will cut rates to 4.75% or 4.5% quickly. Core inflation is low enough for them to do that now.
The economic trajectory remains the same with this Fed non-move. It will take longer, but perhaps we can go higher.
Too much stock is sold short. At some point they get crushed. And those vogue investment strategies 140% long and 40% short and long-short neutral funds will go into the dustbin of history due to underperformance.
Those might work when a few talented managers do them, but in major size they won't.
I added to that last comment and made it into a new post.
right now john succo is someone i wud wanna talk to. u know him?
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