Friday, June 1, 2007

Investor's Soliloquy

To sell, or not to sell – that is the question:
Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of bear raids
Or to make some sales from a sea of green stocks
And by selling save them. To sell, to hold—
No more – and by a sale to say we save
The heartache, and the thousand small hits
The P&L is heir to. ‘Tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wished. To sell, to hold—
To hold – perchance to survive: ay, there’s the rub,
For in that calm hold what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this bear raid
Must give us pause. There’s the respect
That makes huge gains of so long holding.
For who would bear the whips and scorns of bears,
Th’ hedgie’s wrong, the perma-bear’s contumely
The pangs of despised shorts, the move’s delay,
The insolence of gurus, and the spurns
That patient merit of th’ unworthy takes,
When he himself might close his longs
With the “Sell All” button? Who would burdens bear,
To sigh and sweat before a blinking screen,
But that the dread of something after selling,
The undiscovered roaring bull, till such end
Much gold is made, puzzles the will,
And makes us rather bear those stocks we have
Than fly to cash that we know gives little?
Thus fear does make sitters of us all,
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprise of great pitch and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry
And lose the name of action. -- Soft you now,
The fair Ms. Market! -- Nymph, in thy prayers
Be all my stocks remembered.

PS: For the not-so-literate or non-native English speakers out there, the above post is adapted from the famous Hamlet's Soliloquy written 500 years ago by William Shakespeare.

PPS: Check out the old 1948 movie, Hamlet, with Laurence Olivier for a fine performance of that play. I recommend it highly.

P^3S: See comments for today's VERY BULLISH data on the core PCE inflation.

20 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm. I just noticed the Rut & Nazz were very strong yesterday. They both broke up on higher volume. IBD says its "leading" stocks performed well yesterday - outperformed. No opinion, just observing the facts & thinking.

mern said...

i see rev is more bullish than he has been on yr on real money. hes been more clueless than me.

havent watched any b ball, after game 6 of spurs/suns series becuase i dont like have the dictator of the league (david stern) deciding who wins the championship. but i did happen to watch the 3rd, 4th and both OT's of the cavs game.

just a week ago the talking heads on espn said any comparision with james and jordan is just stupid talk.

then there was last nite. when jordan was 22 he was even in the playoffs yet, surrounded by about the same amount of talent.

i watched that kid beat a great defensive team, all by himself. the last 25 pts for the cavs, R U KIDDING ME? 1 on 5 and he was dunking on them, fade away 3's sure, shots he had no business taking, swish.

maybe flip saunders is to blame for poor coaching but i think rip, chauncey, sheed, web, hunter, etc all knew who taking the shots, and they just cudnt stop him.

best performance ive ever seen in basketball

mern said...

employment over 95%. inflation high. GDP splatting. money creation off the chain.

gonna love to see the spin the fed uses to cut rates, and when they do ill add to silver and even buy some gold.

the $ is taking out 80 sooner or later

Bunkerman said...

The monthly PCE core inflation number was 0.1% and the year-over-year core PCE inflation number was 2.0%, another DOWNTICK. This is now equal to the top of the Fed's comfort zone. Very bullish. Another downtick & we're in the comfort zone. Very good news. Disnflation & slow growth is a very bullish environment.

mern said...

bolling said he loves the west coast refiners, yesterday, said to buy CHX and forget about it.

ALJ is a total pure play on west coast refining. chart looks ready

Bunkerman said...

The jobs data combined with the core PCE numbers seems to confirm my thesis for the economic trajectory. Very bullish environment unless something changes.

mern said...

doesnt look like the long end is buying the BLS spin that inflation is rolling over.

TLT putting in a decent bottom here or getting ready to break down. those tails r bullish. if the TLT breaks down, that cud squash my silver and gold thesis.

like jack b just said, gud news is gud news and bad news is gud news. its a roaring bull market. the most roaring ive ever seen, and im on the DL.

;-( and i dont care

Bunkerman said...

I think there was some news about a big pipeline cancelation, that cuts future US natural gas supply by 10%. I didn't see it, just heard a reference. That would be ultra bullish for natural gas and CHK long term.

Bunkerman said...

Disagree. This just seems like the mid 1980s to me - no more, no less.

mern said...

i was in middle school then so i wasnt watching very closely

Bunkerman said...

Middle school ... uhhhh ... that makes me feel old (but wise) :-(

mern said...

SUN ALJ VOL, look to be breaking out

Bunkerman said...

Liesman is spounting such garbage.

Why would ANYONE think that risk of a Fed tightening inceases when the core PCE year-over-year inflation has moved DOWN to the edge of their "comfort" zone.

Silly - stupid - or just screeching for attention.

Bunkerman said...

Why do some people think that Wal-Mart or Exxon are supposed to act like social nannies? I think it shows their innate socialist beliefs. They are using those two large companies as a target to initiate governmental action to mandate all sorts of social programs "at no cost" [lolol] through the "employer" as if the employer is an arm of the government. In many ways that is a throwback to fascist corporate state concepts.

Hmmm.

This should be a normal post. Maybe I'll copy it for Saturday. I wanted to leave my "Investor's Soliloquy" up all day today.

mern said...

gold looks ready.

id still say that for over 80% of the country the cost of living is going much faster than thier incomes. its probably closer 90%.

i just look at my own bills and ask my friends around the country about thier bills. most of them make good to decent money. the cant stop bitching about inflation.

the BLS says one thing. anecdotally, suggesting the CPI is up 2.8% yoy is so off the reservation i dont know where to begin.

hi def tvs, sure they coming down fast and computers, but homeowners ( a little after monster increases), health care, energy, food, education, seem to all be going up.

Bunkerman said...

I had thought about buying more gold a few days ago, but didn't since the seasonal physical demand is slack now.

Then I saw today that the EU completed a gold sale & don't expect to sell more anytime soon.

Oh well. I own a lot already - I want a very good entry for more.

Bunkerman said...

Oh, I forgot to post another inflation data point. I bought two cases of beer Sunday - St. Pauli Girl and the local ale. The cost was .............. identical to last fall. No inflation in that vital sector ;-)

Bunkerman said...

Bunker living sounds better than ever. This new Google "Streetview" and others sound like something I don't want. Hehehe, my "bunker" is NOT visible from any public way AND the trees cover me from satellites & aerial surveillance. And my new outer defense perimeter will keep even pushy snoops out :-))

Bunkerman said...

Poparoo at the close - probably beefers being cute & getting caught.

"The Trend is Your Friend"

"It's a Bull Market"

mern said...

any pakistany sitting, ie bud? ;-)

peace

word to your mother