The S&P 500 cash chart shows a similar pattern as it did in early March - looks like a "W" minor bottom and a bullish continuation pattern. It's a bit less pronounced than March's pattern.
This morning's core CPI number will be important. And we have quad-witching adjustments today, too, at the open and the close. So be patient and think about the data. The beefers trading funds are going to try to create panic one way or the other to run stops. That's how they extract money from the market. Don't let them get yours.
The big eastern cities and Ohio valley will be very hot beginning Sunday. European models (which have been working well lately) show the heat continuing into mid July with only brief cool periods. This is bullish for natural gas & corn. But rain matters a lot for corn & a ridge need to block most of it for the eastern cornbelt to become stressed. The next 4 to 5 weeks are critical for determining yield. Weather varies & forecasts vary even more. So I expect some big moves up & down but a bullish overall trend as a weather premium is built.
The wheat market is like the Lil' Abner character, Joe Btfsplk - everything that could go wrong, is going wrong. I wish I was long, but need a good re-entry that might not occur.
Oil & miners were strong yesterday. They are the leaders until China says they aren't, imho.
The world economic trajectory seems very bullish for long term investment returns. A widely diversified long-term investment portfolio should perform well in this secular bull market.
"The Trend is Your Friend"
Use Time Diversification.
PS: Year-over-year core CPI downticked to 2.2%. Very bullish. The Fed should take off the inflation bias in this June meeting or the next one after that. Disinflation & moderate growth is a very bullish economic trajectory for stocks.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
50 comments:
Hey Mern.....the US is saying there is no inflation.
Phillies only 2 back. Charlie Manuel manager of the year?
Amazing heat in the bullsh*t....uh...fertilizer sector. POT TNH CF TNH. Is that cuz of the heat and corn/wheat prices?
MON MOS too.
Both of Buddy's teams crackin under the pressure....
yes Bud, re POT, etc.
had an interview this am. looks like the compliance analyst gig is where im landing. 50k to start, with benefits (what the hell r those) out the butt, even dental. paid time off????? whats that? and no DT, to get the job.
probably make 90 to 100 in about 5 yrs. 40 hours a week. just a lot of paperwork, but i can take a lot of home and do it baked, so who cares?
got a flyer today. huge house in my development for sale 5 beds, 3 bath, 3 car garage. i called a buddy of mine who is looking to buy a house. i asked him what he thought it wud be priced at, he replied 299? nope, 199! unless the house is crack den inside, i mite buy this sucker. its about 4k sq feet for 199, hell bud cud afford that. and if its a crack den inside, he wudnt even need to redecorate.
the worden is goona hate this but niether i or the firm see y i shud start in july only to take 2 weeks off in august, for the europe trip.
so this is officially "the summer of mern"
ill be drunk by noon today
;-)
congrats to bob "cheat shot" horry and david stern. they got the spurs thier 4th ring.
now if we cud go back and replay games 5 and 6 of that series at full strength, then we wud know who the best team in the NBA is. is there any doubt the suns were gonna take that series, after stealing game 4?
well at least these finals were the lowest ever in prime time era. hopefully stern catches enuff heat and quits. i really hate him, like cramer
yes bud, there is no inflation. the higher the headline # gets, the lower core goes becuase of the way they figure equivalent rents. the higher natural gas goes, the lower rent goes and that a 31% wieght in the CPI.
i have a really gud massage therapist, but she is nothing compared to the BLS.
natural gas went up a lot in may. so if rents stayed the same, then actually thats a big discount in the core becuase u "supposedly" r not paying more for natural gas. so if natural gas ever goes back down, the will recalibrate how it effects the CPI, u watch.
i think this is about the 3rd or 4th time recently we have had big runs into a gud CPI report. like i said yesterday, somebody is seeing that data pt, before us.
drinky pooh time, peace, or glass, whatever
mern....the nba should fold on this east vs west finals joke and move to a tourney with the top 8-10 teams competing for the title, something akin to march madness. with two of the best college players in sometime landing in the west after the draft, the east may not win a title for another ten years. I sent an email to stern with some detail yesterday and just recieved a reply. One of his seconds indicated that they have recieved similar fan input, thanks, we take customer comments serious etc... blah blah blah.
die yankees die!!!!!!!!
stern is a nazi. i still cant figure out how duncan can step onto the court, but diaw and stoudamire werent? or no fool shot for lebron at the end of game 3. or the way stern helped the aggessor (spurs) in that altercation. that was a vicious blow, and just to see if your man was ok, u had to move, to see it. stern had every opportunity to let the series be on of the all time great slugfests. instead we got that crap, and the rest of the playoffs were crap (except pistons, cavs. u know if the pistons got there, they wud have matched up much better with the spurs. flip saunders shud have been canned, but i think he got an extension)
trailblazers wanna the fans input on oden or durrant. thats funny!
if they dont pick oden, ill pay for the plane ticket, fly to seattle and lick your toe jam.
in 2 yrs portland will be ahead of the spurs.
id like to see the suns get one. maybe the sixers, again, before i die. been a long time since moses malone uttered those words of wisdom after they won "fo, fo, fo". man that guy cud barely speak, and he forgot they lost a game to the bucks but who cares. rings were going in philly in the 70's thourgh 83, then since then. :-(
anyone notice this last nite? spread was cleveland getting 3. they were down 4 with 1.5 seconds to go. spurs let the cavs take a 3 and like half the crowd cheered their ass off, even though they lost. LOL, they all had money on the game.
and after 5 viewings of the first lil bush show, it cud be the funniest thing ive ever seen.
u can watch free on comedycentral.com the bush voice is priceless and chenney is the best jerry, the best!
lol buddy(fade die_____ die)
no but thanks for the invite on the fishin trip fosty...I have a couple tee times for next week "Hence"..I must decline....lmao
good luck mern
i know bunkerman is now a longer-term investor, but do any traders see a big negative divergence with RSI in the SPX? It seems the SPX is at its previous high, but the RSI is severely lagging...I'm just throwing it out there...
JSDA...opened 14.87 with an eye on the large volume yesteday and the 200 sma....I have followed the blog worlds attempt to call a bottom here almost daily for weeks and Bill Rempel was the last to fold yesteday....short interest has gone to the moon and is a very tough borrow...Q1 was loaded and the bar for earnings due the end of july could well be beat...from most loved to most hated in eight weeks makes for a decent fish with yestedays volume....the bears are likely to take some honey as earnigs near to avoid the possible surprise upside beat.
So are you sayin buy JSDA? Where you learn to write like that?
Funny how Bunkerman is long term but everyone that posts here is a virtual whore slut bitch. Lmaoooooooooooo
madhouse here today. Back for awhile.
mfl, The S&P just turned back up from a pullback. Ya gotta give RSI time to catch up. Those use moving averages that lag always.
I wouldn't be surprised by a slow grind up now for awhile, with pullbacks along the way. Just slow enough to infuriate the beefer bears & crush them slowly. ;-)
Hmmm. I guess the real buyers did it on the dip again on the pullback. :-)
yes very true bunkerman...will be interesting to see how it shakes out in the next week or so...
spinny...no fishing? my bet is you do have some tee times, but they were booked only after you were unable to obtain the kitchen pass...may I suggest a blue nile purchase to grease the skids before our next trip? perhaps you can buy your way out...lol...to bad, going to be a blast.
uh bub, yes I bought JSDA and it is a long term investment. I plan to own it forever...or a least until I get you to cover...lol
Uh Bud, this is an inclusive, non-discriminatory blog. Naturally being a populist libertarian along the lines of Ronald Reagan, all views are encouraged.
Mmmmmmmm. Mrs. B brought me a couple quarter pounders with cheese for lunch. :-)
Rofl frosty......'long term investment.' In the long term we're all dead.
should get the VSR pump soon
im drunk and baked
now im eating a block of cheese on my vibrating chair, waiting for the ross's to ruin the summer of mern
HANS ripping the bears lungs out today on that GS upgrade....JSDA pin action delayed as the bears hold it below the 15 strike.
GE looks like a big breakout, unless we all figure out the cpi is 8%. any thoughts?
long ge (nibble)
I bought GE at 35 for Mom on its pullback. A fine long term invetment. ;-)
Looks like the weather will be good for Sunday's Pin Shoot. I think I'll go and get a little practice with my .45 :-)
INFN going to bring on the 7 kinds of smoke in the last hour?
It's really utterly indefensible that these private equity barons get taxed on their compensation at the LT cap gain rate.
Private equity firms pool money from investors , buy companies, make them healthier and attempt to sell them at a profit. They take risk. They are partnerships not corporations. That is why they are paying LT taxes and not corporate taxes.
I don't see a need for congress to interfere.
HOOK...spin what were you saying the other day? strange action on firday, one might think this one was going to catch a bid...lol..mmmmm redhook ale.
the word is out on your trip..lol..see boys..it pays to rattle the frostmans cage....
Sunday's pin shoot? Is that a bowling league?
uh, Bud, which companies in the world don't take risk? Heck, they are using other people's money - not risking their own. THey aren't making ANY capital investment. It's purely a service business, no diferent than Fidelity or any other money manager. It's a pure, tax scam.
It's so hilarous to listen to these "reasons" they give to not pay fair taxes.
lol, Bud. We shoot bowling pins with our revolvers & pistols. One gets timed in how fast to knock five pins off a table about 30 ft. away. Six cartidge limit per magazine; reloads permitted but they add to one's time.
My better times are around seven seconds. A really good pin shoter can do it in 4 seconds or less. It's great practice for firing under pressure. :-)
Ahh, the spell of burnt gunpowder ;-)
The comfortable thump of my .45 in my hand ;-)
lolol, I love the smell of gunpowder in the afternoon ... it smells like LIBERTY ;-))))
the pistol match.....I got hauled out of a state parks rifle range in Pittsburgh by two rangers for shooting at a bowling pin....paper targets only.......I dropped the clip on the hood of their car and scratched it.(commies).....that didnt go over well either...lol
boyah bunkerman....mon back gunpowder....see a pin, see bud and pull the tirger, your a lock for first place.
Nah, Bud's a libertarian masquerading as a liberal to score with the young fem groupies.
I just focus on my front sight & squeeze. :-)))
In this proto-fascist state, one can't even shoot targets of Bin Laden or Hitler faces.
Bowling pins ... fine. At the clubs at least.
Gee, those CNBC views of Broad & Wall Streets sure are depressing. When I worked down there 20-25 years ago, they were vibrant, fun places to walk around. It looks like a jail now.
I used to walk down Broad Street in the early AM & buy a cup of fine coffee & croissant from a street vendor. At lunch we walked up Broad to go to a club for lunch. You could see some guy in a Ferrari in the early AM zip up Broad St. & buy coffee, too.
The floor brokers would be standing outside at lunch grabbing a smoke.
Or see nuts demonstrating or trying to convert one's religion.
No freedom at all. That's the problem with playing defense everywhere and having a wimpy offense. It never ends. Maybe that's what the powerful want. More power over us.
Ugh now. :-((
freedom is just another word for nothing left loose, nothing aint worth nothing but it's free...feeling good was easy lord while bobby sang the blues...feeling good was good enough for me...good enough me and bobby mcgee....come on everyone sing along.
Looks like a fine weekend here. Finally.
Peace.
thanks guys..off to shoot 9......enjoy your weekends and good luck at the shoot Bunky
GO YANKS!!!
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