No big LBO yet this AM [5:30 EDT here].
I did some research this weekend. Barron's Intermediate Grade Bond Index yields 7.16%. Merrill Lynch High Yield 100 Index yields 7.25%. Both are less than yields one year ago. Hmmm. The High Yield 100 is priced at a spread of 213 bps over the 10 year Treasury. The high spread over the past 52 weeks is ... 300 bps [btw, 1 bps = 1 basis point = 0.01%]. Not exactly indicating a major concern for LBO. On Tuesday WSJ reported that S&P said that "corporate loan default rates are at their lowest rate ever - about 12 times less than historical rates of 3.5%"
Obviously a recession would change that. But one has to question the rationality of all the doom-sayers we hear daily. Do they really analyse anything or are they just tossing some bones on the ground and getting they visions from reading them?
In her very forgettable book, Maria Bartiromo [the former CNBC "money honey" of the Bubble years], said that one needs to distinguish between "real" news and "noise". That's all you need to know from that book - I was unable to finish it. But Bubblevision and all the other "news" outlets must "manufacture" news and phony controversy to fill their broadcast time & printed space. That's why they put on all those "dueling heads", whether politicians, money mangers, market seers, etc. That's all just manufactured news. I listen to it & other channels to extract a few key nuggets of "real" news & "real" facts. Have you noticed they rarely bring up the track record of a talking head? Kernan points it out sometimes; Erin, too. Those are the exceptions. So if you listen, pull out the "real" news and good facts. Let the crap go - don't waste valuable memory cells storing it.
I did hear some real facts last week & am preparing a post about one - perhaps tomorrow. The info from Santelli that mortgage hedging was causing the violent US Treasury moves was a good one. I knew that from my bond market past experience, but more viewers probably didn't.
Otherwise, it's a bull market. Buy dips. Hold longs. Long & strong +150% on butter. And I still have that S&P futures long position.
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8 comments:
inflation update. property taxes going down, supposedly, rather big in florida.
favorite watering hole raised prices on beer, 20 cents a bottle or 10%.
looks like ill save about 1500 on taxes and spend an extra 750 on beer. so my CPI is now only like 10%
;-)
Uh Mern, lying, thieving politicians "promised" lower property taxes all the time - in exchange for raising taxes on someting else. Then a few years later, property taxes are right back up.
The only property tax cuts that have worked are ones done by citizen initiative, like California and Massachusetts.
Hold onto your wallet.
ya, they r suggesting an income tax to regain some of the lost funds.
"hold onto my wallet" lol
when i open mine, jackson puts on a pair of shades
I just canceled two more news services - real time news. That saves another $10K/yr. I'm amazed how much $$$ I was spending to support rapid-fire trading. I'm picking them off a few at a time as I change my habits.
Hmmm. Good weather, no remodelers here today. Perhaps a day to goof off this afternoon? Thinking ...
See you doubters: McDonald's makes good, quality food. Real eggs, 100% beef. Mom's see it proven :-)
[from Bubble vision segment just now.]
down to jays site, RM (for laffs), trading ipos and TC net.
wud love see the SLV break below 12.60. thats a meatball down da middle
Mern they gotta bar by my home.....dime draws on tuesday nite. I may go tomorrow nite to find out the deal. Maybe you need to move to Ftlauderdale.
PS.. You catch the show last nite after Soprano's. Johnfromcincinnatti.........it wis out there . Bunch of wacked surfers. I liked it alot.
they wait a couple yrs, shoot a movie, make a billion or 2
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