Friday seemed to punctuate an active spring for the stock markets & I wonder if we are now in the summer doldrums. Perhaps the close of June's quad-witching day is now the official beginning of stock summer?? Monday seemed rather dull. Volume was very light on the NYSE and the Nazz.
I'm doing very little in stocks. Just holding all my longs. AAPL came back strong yesterday. That's my biggest position. One reason I've held AAPL so long is that I'm following part of the IBD thinking, namely that companies with great new products can be great "multi-baggers" in a bull market. This is the "N" in Bill O'Neil's "CAN SLIM" system. "N" means "New Products, New Management, New Highs. I read his book, "How to Make Money in Stocks" and thought a lot of it was very helpful in getting a perspective. It also helps one get over the "fear" in buying a stock well off it's lows. [I didn't need a lot of help there, being a student of Jesse Livermore.]
AAPL seems to be one of the few companies with great new technology products that are creating huge new markets.
Corn crops ratings were down 7 pts in Monday's USDA Crop Conditions report. That's more than most expected. But a little rain fell overnight in the cornbelt, so futures didn't pop. We'll see. The weather looks like a blocking ridge is developing and hot, dry conditions seem likely for the next two weeks. That gets us into the crucial period for corn. Weather markets are volatile. I still have all my bushels of corn.
The winter wheat harvest is well behind schedule. Ukraine is still dry. Dry conditions in Kansas, etc. might help the harvest get going & pressure prices. If so, I might try to re-buy on a dip. I think wheat prices might go up later in the year as the full extent of world crop problems become more recognized. "Bad crops get worse" Remember that one? [btw, the US spring wheat crop is in great shape for now.]
PS: Peter Lynch coined the term, a "ten-bagger". That's a modified baseball term for you non-baseball lovers or fans or the international soccer set ;-) Baseball is a GREAT sport ;-) In baseball a single is a one bag hit. A double is a two-bagger, etc. A home run is a four-bagger. Peter Lynch looked for stocks with "ten-bagger" potential, i. e. a stock that could go up 1,000%. Just a few of those really help a portfolio's return.
PPS: Corn & soybeans got hit around 6AM EDT. I suppose the GFS weather map update had more rain. That US model has been having problems lately and not performing well. But it's widely follow and caused some big swings and some of the volatility I mentioned. I'm sticky with the horse "that brung me" [ ;-) I'm using a little country-speak ] and that hot & dry conditions are coming for the next three weeks for the eastern cornbelt.
P^3S: What is this infatuation with shorting? I just heard about the vogue idea of long-only funds becoming 120 long + 20 short funds and or 140% long + 40% short funds. This is nuts. Shorting makes a lot of sense in special situations & in bear markets, but not as a time-independent investing philosophy. Stocks are NOT commodities, but many participants seem to be treating them as such more & more.
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OK, I admit that thinking about a lazy summer "might" be eisegesis on my part. One day does not a trend make. An I'm tired & need some time to rest. The remodelers are almost done & I want some peace.
In the current move in corn/wheat....did they peak yesterday ? If the weather stays dry and hot....will that help POT?
Are corn/wheat at all-time highs?
E-mail records are missing for 51 of the 88 White House aides with Republican Party accounts, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee reported Monday.
The White House says the accounts were set up to keep political work separate from official business, but investigators concluded White House officials used the accounts to conduct official business in a way that circumvented the Watergate-era Presidential Records Act.
The 37 accounts the Republican National Committee did save include nearly 675,000 individual messages -- more than 140,000 of them from Karl Rove, President Bush's top political adviser.
and "pac man" jones.
bud, who is more dumb. the white house or pac man?
LOL!
Lil'bush...roflmao!!!! Saw the iraq episode last nite. Lil'cheney is awesome.
(Oh, and just for fun, go ahead and Google "pacman shooting strip club." You only get 220,000 hits.)
ROFL
Depends on the weather re corn & wheat. If it stays hot & dry, corn does up.
Wheat needs rain in Kansas & hot+dry in Ukaine & China.
I'm not sure re POT. I wonder if any more acres can be planted to use more fertilzer. No opinion.
All-time high for corn is around 5.50 (July 1996) vs. recent of 4.50.
Major all-time highs for wheat is about 650 (1974 era Great Russian Wheat Robbery) and a spike to about $7.50 in spring 1996. So wheat is close.
Hmm, a search indicated that in 1974 there was talk of a new ice age coming, causing crops problems. Interesting fact.
ya that was the premiere episode.
bud u get chubbed up when lil hiliary and lil condi started making out?
lil chenney is the best!
"ra ra ra ra, dear penthouse diary"
:-)
I sw Hildog parody on South Park tivoed episode last night. "hilarious" ;-)
cartmen isnt dumb. as soon as he saw that muslim, he knew something was up.
;-)
POT and MON are helped by high crop prices and demand that brings in marginal acres and induce farmer to cease crop rotation. Those practices require more fetilzer & beter seed.
So as long as this corn-based ethanol nonsense is pervasive, I'd say they have long term bullish support.
I don't think the weather really matters short term, except by causing year ending stockpiles to be low & induce more palnting next year. But beefers might use them as proxies.
Hmmm. Beefers (large traders) are very short natural gas. Record short, in fact, including options. Interesting.
nice 10 yr base on CHK.
suppose if hurricanes dont hit soon those bets might pay off, but we get a couple in the gulf in july or this month, they will get crushed
interesting segment on cnbc on refiners. haines is being hilarious. so we had 301 refiners in 1982 and 149 now, in the USA.
hmmmmmmmm
The current era of refining is more about capacity than the number of refiners. The increase in capacity of remaining refiners and the efficency driven by better technology gets very little covereage. Not to mention that fewer refiners have improved distribution
Refining saftey appears to have lasped, as with any activity when one pushes to get more from less. This is also bunk, just the shear reduction in the labor required to produce a gallon makes that seem to be a farce.
The fact that fuel tanks are much larger due to improved vehicle safety which allows even more effiecent vehicles to carry far more fule than in the past. Also, people dont run the tank as near empty in the post idiot light vehicle era. When the need fuel light blinks you stop and get fuel even though you may have 60-125 miles left in the tank. The result is much higher inventory than is ever reported.
I just love these apple to orange comparisons that are designed to shock the unsuspecting tabloid, sound bight society. When it comes to the refining and use of gas we are more efficent and on an adjusted basis operate at about the same cost as we did thirty years ago.
The mega farms of today store huge ammounts of fuel on sight. While I no one knows or admits to the per acre of fuel storage ratio compared to the seventies it has exploded.
Hell bunkerman likely has more fuel stored than the mom and pop gas station once on every corner in america....lol.
Wow frosty.... some post. I didn't know you quit drinking. You go to an aa meeting last nite?
I heard last year that several refiners are being built inthe Caribean where teh regulations are more manageable.
And the changing fuel standrads makes tweaking the refining process a lot tougher.
When the refiners tell Congress that before the rules get put on, no one listens.
One would be nuts to risk that capital for new refiners anyway. the risk is huge if spreads collapse.
And with Lyndon talking about cutting use of gasoline, obviously no one would build one anyway as it might not be needed IF he succeeds.
Bunky may have more fuel,food,guns,gold on hand....but having remodelers doesnt sound like a true survivalist to me..lol...when the shit hits the fan...and the bombs start fallin....who will be around to put walls up or a roof over your head?..lol....(wink)
yes bub, I was hoping that you would teach me how to keep my pinkie properly high while sipping tea. One lumb or two chum boy...lol
Roflmao...'remodelers'
What is the infatuation with shorting? Perhaps incremental performance? The likelehood that we have seen the VIX hit a sustainable low within this cycle a likely factor? The pullbacks are swift, short and rather perdictable imo. As someone who has a fairly sharp set of bear claws, I can attest that shorting within this bull run is far easier than in the last bear impulse. Also, the periods of sideways movement and resulting rotations as we base to move higher provide a multitude of profitable short oppportunites. The increase in etf options recudes the need to take news driven risk of an individual issue within a consolidating sector. Plus there is no up tick rule there.
Chart driven traders and mo mo chasing leaves many without a chair when the music stops. Being ibd #1 is a death sentence as one example.
I will stop there before I put all my cards face up, but trust me when I say, the darkside is not a risky as one might think.
Frosty are you bored? These are some boring posts.
rofl "chum"
keep em coming frosty
bud just pissed he has to use a dictionary to understand your posts.
bingo Bud, doing little of nothing in the market, just day dreaming aoubt my pending vacation and landing the big one. Irritating you is just a bonus.
If I can stimulate some conversation today I can avoid hitting the keg while working on step nine. I luv you too man and apologize for fading you like a mad man...lol
Unlike you I like to pick bunkerman's brain, I find it of value.
"step nine"
lmao!
LOL step nine....now that's more like it.
Just saw lil'bush again. Barbara seducing lil'cheney too funny!!!!!
lil bush "r abortion clinics where all gud dates start?
lil clinton "nope, but thats where they end"
;-)
Lil' Bush at pro life rally.."all this wantin to save lives and killin at the same time is cool!"
Ahh..the good ole days. A Frosty and Bud smack down. These days of no movement in the indices are my best days in the port. Good to see things are well in Crackertown, Bunker Row, and The Left Coast.
Lmaoo...'the left coast'
oh the humanity!
Gee, some Internet node was down awhile & I lost a few sites - including this one.
Bought some more corn (Dec) & Sept KC wheat. at lows. Joe better be right.
Uh, just because I hire someone to work doesn't mean I don't know how to do it ;-)
I like giving good working people jobs ;-)
Working with my hands is a hobby - I luv using my 1" socket drive on my halftrack :-))
And fixing gun parts on my milling machine ;-)
What is Joe sayin? Heat and drought in midwest so that's why you bt corn? POT CF TNH MOS all-time hi's today
corn & wheat getting smacked on a GFS model run. Joe is looking for a hot, dry July.
OK, Frosty, re shorting. I never had much luck shorting when I am bullish (& right). It just confuses my simple brain.
You must have more useful brain circuits than me ;-)
speaking of shorts EWP short with a stop over 60
bunkerman...lol...you could sneeze a greater volume of brain power into a kleenex that I will ever have...beside, who in their right mind would argue with a guy that gaurds his compound with armored vehicles, lol. Please don't confuse physiological gamemanship with superior intellect.
Speaking of board...good to see you Maverick.
Guys that guard their living quarters with barbed wire and loaded ammo aren't smart. I believe the medical term is 'paranoid'. I call them nuts.
Shorting when I am mostly long always interferred with my concentration on my major theme. Ditto when short in a bear market - longs just mess with my head.
I found that when I just concentrate on one theme, I do a lot better.
Bud, it's good you didn't live in pioneer days. You would have been surely gotten scalped with such an attitude. ;-)
If civiliation breaks down - even locally like in New Orleans in 2005 - you'll understand the need for survival thinking.
Uh....that's my point. We don't live in deadwood or bunker hill anymore. What are we payin taxes for? And if civilization ever does break down...what is barbed wire gonna do? You gonna fight the mob by yourself? lmaoooooo
Roflmao....'scalped'.
bud will be fine....as long as he can find a viable and well respected pimp...lol
perhaps someone should save me from myself, because I am seeing a lot of things that look decent on the short side, ie utilities, some foreign banks....guess that means mkt going higher...
Actually, I just need a secure & strong position so the mob goes down the road. I figure if I make a couple dozen pay, the rest will move on ;-)
Taxes don't matter in a breakdown. The cops will be protecting their own families.
These breakdowns have happened several times in local disaster events in the US over the past 30 years. So I figure I need to be ready if one hits close to home.
mfl59...agree, these basing periods and the resulting rotations provide some good short action...nothing wrong with making a little coin trading around a core with with some swipes on the darkside....one concern though is that drop in the put call ratio, which may make that game a little harder this summer ie holding the core.
GE getting bought, most likely. blah
GONE FISHING!!!!
thanks all, take care, be well, even you bud.
mmmmmmmm fresh salmon, pass the soy sauce and wasabi
have fun
IMMMmmmmmm sailin........I'M sailing......I'm a sailor...I sail....with the boat ..and the water....ahoyyy..lol
Be safe Skipper Fosty
we're gunna need a bigger boat
dunnnanahhhhh
Do all your vacations involve killing innocent animals? Sheeeesh
catch and release Dupree.....
ROFL!
dupree with the mormon libirarian, what was the margin for? LOL
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM "is this hand shucked" (dont hassle me, im local"
"death therapy Bob, its a guartanteed cure"
what about bob? sooooooo funny. watching richard dryfeus melt down is pure comedy
may i also suggest the "sarah silverman show" on comedy central
mern Bringin..7 kinds of smoke..lol
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