Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Patience Grasshopper

Looks like the bears are attacking this morning. We might as well be patient and let them dig a big hole for themselves. The bulls have had a long run & lots of underinvested players will buy dips as long as nothing changes the economic trajectory.

This is a triple witching week, so don't overinterpret market moves. Wait for real news.

Friday's CPI on Quad-witching Friday might create some wild moves.

I'll probably try a light-side trade if the bears knock the S&P futures down too much.

Corn is a weather play now. Total rainfall for the next four weeks and the risk of excessive heat during pollination determine the crop. Watching, holding long December corn & calls.

PS: Sheesh. Bears are saying New Zealand is leading the world. I've been there. How idiotic. A very fine place to visit, at least in mid 1980s. But a sign of world trends ?! Phooey!

PPS: Increasing rates are bad. Falling rates are bad. A rising dollar is bad. A falling dollar is bad. An inverted yield curve is bad. A normal yield curve is bad. Everything is bad. Bearishness is so rampant. It's depressing to listen to this stuff. I'm glad I think for myself. Maybe I'll go to the range this afternoon.

25 comments:

mern said...

u ever see the movie "why we fight"

covered last 80 yrs of the middle east. we create a bin laden, or saddamn, or the shaw. once they have been trained by the CIA, they go out and do what we ask them to do. and then we leave em high and dry, and expect no reprocussions?

reminds me of this larry david stand up joke. "president clinton got a bj, from a jew, and expected no reprocussions??!! he must not be familiar with us jews" lol

on my semi logs the S&P bounced right at 50 day. seems like 9 day is resistance

mern said...

great piece on global warming, waiting to here buds response

Bunkerman said...

Yes, Mern, I bought the tapes of that series. Oooops I thought you meant the WW II era original by Frank Capra.

No, I haven't seen the one you mention. Sounds a bit conspiratorial. Those "US causes all problems" theories don't give the nations or peoples of the world much credit for free will. They blamed the US for the Cold War, too, sort of left Stalin out of it.

Bunkerman said...

Bud will probably tell me to go read my Bible, ... ooops ... watch the Pope's movie, ... oops, I mean Algore's movie. ;-))))))

mern said...

if the buck can regain 83 maybe some beefer will puke some gold and silver to me. looks like stocks dont care for a strong dollar. rates cud be a secondary issue. and if the FXY ever caught a bid...............

mern said...

lol.

ya there we many former cia and army guys that trashed the pentagon and the CIA.

this one person said most of the intelligence bush, cheney and rummy were handing out pre iraq invasion were notes from the mid 80's basically reciepts from the crap we sold him, to fight the iraq's. she said she quit after she read the CIA intelligence report to congress becuase nothing in the report was less than 10 yrs old with respect to WMD's and nuclear weapons.

movie showed a very young rummy shaking hands with a younger saddmamn in the early 80's. that made me LOL

mern said...

At the time of publication, John Hughes had no positions in the stock mentioned.

Hughes began his career at the NYSE in 1989 followed by twelve years running the technical analysis department and co-managing a hedge fund for a New York based brokerage firm. In 2001, John Hughes co-founded Epiphany Equity Research, which has developed and utilizes proprietary tools to identify and track liquidity changes in the market indexes and sectors. Mr. Hughes advises numerous asset managers, hedge funds and institutions managing in excess of $30 billion.

wow, thats one of my best friends from my old ny office. hes writing for RM now. ive gotta call him. i wonder how big his fund is. last i checked he was working with a guy i started with at bucket shop in 94. they really got me into charts back in 97. wonder what he thinx or has even met cramer?

Bud said...

10 year hit 5.25 overnite. Not good for equities.

Bud said...

Lemme quote a young forest gump for you two.........'mama says...stupid is as stupid does'

mern said...

so thats all u have bud, to bunkermans data point?

nothing logical, just name calling.

typical democrat like behavior

rofl :-)

mern said...

TLT close to breaking 06 lows. u mite see some beefer allocation trades here. out of stock into bonds, but that mite dwarf how much FNM's have to sell to hedge

mern said...

DALLAS, Texas (CNN) -- A cheap highly addictive drug known as "cheese heroin" has killed 21 teenagers in the Dallas area over two years, and authorities say they are hoping they can stop the fad before it spreads across the nation.

"Cheese heroin" is a blend of so-called black tar Mexican heroin and crushed over-the-counter medications that contain the antihistamine diphenhydramine, found in products such as Tylenol PM, police say. The sedative effects of the heroin and the nighttime sleep aids make for a deadly brew.

Moncibais then asked how many students knew a "cheese" user. Just about everyone in the auditorium raised a hand. At one point, when he mentioned that the United States has the highest rate of drug users in the world, the middle schoolers cheered. (Watch middle schoolers raise hands, admit they know drug users )

"You know, I know being No. 1 is important, but being the No. 1 dopeheads in the world, I don't know whether [that] bears applause," Moncibais shot back.

watching america unravel is a dark comedy

Frosty said...

bunkerman....a look at ops expo week going back to 1/06, tuesday has proven the most volatile and wednesday the most positve, 14 of the past 17. so if you looking for a quicky odds favor you here...a down day wednesday would either be a fluke or a signal that things are a changing.

Bud said...

Rofl frosty.....you make trading decisions based on day of the week? lololol

PS. Hope you faded me on TAP....ugh. But AXR death spiral continues.

Bunkerman said...

Interesting info Frosty. Maybe a weak open Wednesday is a quickie buy?

Looks like I sold my wheat to soon. Oh well, picking a top is tough & dangerous.

Bunkerman said...

I'm going to the range this PM so can't do anything today.

mern said...

Temp AT&T employees will reportedly be tasked with a few other duties, such as greeting customers, funneling the flow of non-iPhone traffic, and handling minor technical support issues. Their tenure will span early June through early August.

"It's estimated that the launch will hit us hard," the source said. "I will be making sure that waiting customers don't get angry."


looks more in demand than the wii

what a stud AAPL

sadly np

Frosty said...

bunkerman....you never mention automatic weapons so I assume you have yet to obtain your fed firearms lic? the only thing better than putting led in the air is putting mass led in the air...get one near and fire for effect...if I close my eyes I can smell the power burning....mmmmmmmmm

Frosty said...

uh bub, today is looking rather volatile...gap down, strong move into the green with the afternoon beat down. following the script we have seen 82% of the ops expos ie my prior post...now if you just fade me short wednesday we have a good chance for that pattern to improve to 15 of 18.

Frosty said...

QQQQ max pain is 46...max pain AAPL 115...it would be a change in character indeed if max pain were to come into play.

mern said...

dirt nap for the TLT

this shud cool down inflation and bring on a recession. but ive been thinking that for yr. so ive been very very wrong

mern said...

silver near 13, come to butthead

Bunkerman said...

Frosty, the automatic machines are my main fun. We were testing some 8mm ammo in one Tuesday PM. The ammo flunked - too many dud primers. Back to the standard 30-06 for that M1919A4. [I have one set for .308 already] We're prepping for the big two day shoot in July in Vermont.

Spin-em said...

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/images/ORD_M82_Sniper_Rifle_lg.jpg

...after a few beers...Frosty goes wabbit hunting

Spin-em said...

!@@#$%%^...link to long for bunky's pages...