Horrible ... Devastating ... Such Torment !!!
The long term US Treasury notes & bonds are yielding .............. 5% [gasp]
Du'h. My 100 year wall chart of interest rates shows that level is still historically very low, being below the general level of interest rates since 1967.
Any company that can't make oodles of money on 5% Treasury rates should be liquidated & management fired.
Hmmmm. The long-term, academic studies give 3% as the average real return on bonds. So 2% core inflation plus 3% gives ............. 5%.
That's where the US Treasury rates should have been all along.
More "Wall of Worry" screeching. Nothing has changed.
PS: I just heard McCain support nuclear power. Maybe I'll send him my other "vote". You see, the "rich" get two votes early on while regular people don't get a vote until next year. I sent McCain my "primary" vote. I think I'll send him my "general election" vote soon. What a system! .........NOT!
PPS: I posted about GOOG recently. GOOG outperformed yesterday, making an all-time high amid a general down day. The company has great market position & growth and the stock seems very undervalued. The chart shows a break up from a long consolidation base. I'm long and if it can hold this new all-time high for today's close, I'll buy my last chunk. This is a longer term position.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
21 comments:
Here's what I think has changed. Liquidity been driving the market. Deals gettin done borrowing money at low rates. If ( I said 'if') rates are gonna go up......well we all know what that means. Higher interest rates are a bull killer.
PS. Have a little GOOG too....does look very good.
What's wrong with a system which allows me to donate funds to my favorite candidate? What do you suggest? Get the US taxpayer to pay for tv commercials?
I have nothing against private donations, which I think should have no limits.
But a front-loaded primary system that requires huges sums for TV time simply means that the rich select the candidates. Or super-rich candidates are favored, too.
In the older system, a good candidate could focus on a few small states where time & contact mattered to get their views across. And with a good showing, he could raise money easily for the big states.
The current system stinks. I think it will end badly.
It all depends on how high, Bud. 5% kills nothing.
By the way, from my weekly nearby US Treasury notes futures chart, interest reates were higher last summer. And the monthly nearby futures just shows a slow trend channel. I don't see any reason to think US interest rates are going up significantly to a level that could kill the bull market. 5 or 5.25% looks like long term resistance. I think think the recent down move in yields was just wrong speculation of a recession that's getting reversed.
Bunkerman, do u really believe core inflation is 2% becuase if u do...... i inherited about 130 shares on Enron that i didnt know about until after i probated my moms estate and the stock was already 0, will u take it off my hands at 60 bucks. lol
bought about 200 bucks of groceries at WMT yesterday. even their generic cleaning products have spike some 15% yoy. bathroom cleaner, pine cleaner. its not like we need that stuff often, and i remember what i paid last time. i literally put my jaw on the ground. bathroom cleaner went from .98 cents to 1.17.
Bunkerman seems to be describing the very funny movie, Bulworth. (dont we wish there was a candidate like bulworth out there?)
so whats the difference between the ECB and the fed? the ecb quit smoking crack in the 90's.
I am gonna get tattooed at the open today. Way way too many longs. I need the forces of light to rise up.
LOL inflation 2%. Best reason to see Bulworth.......a smokin hot young HalleBerry.
Bulworth - never heard of it. Is it good?
Mern - join Costco or Sam's. That type of stuff is dirt cheap there. You just need a pantry or closet or a shelf to store it.
I think you guys in Florida get bad data. Florida is overrun with geezers with spending money. It's not reality.
I go to Ohio & just don't see much inflation except in gasoline and in municipal services. Here I go to Costco & buy stuff like laundry detergent & smoked salmon & olive oil for a lot less than I remember paying 5 or 10 years ago at the supermarket.
My homeowners insurance goes down every year.
Inflation priced into TIPs isn't very much off 2 or 2.5% - not sure exactly what it is now. I own a lot of those in Krypto Fund.
heres another inflation data pt. went to macaroni grill monday (wardens fave restaurant (ugh) becuase she used to work there in college and loves the menu). i had my usual scallop salad. usually that comes with about 10 scallops. monday it came with 6. i asked the waiter y the salad was short, he said it wasnt short. i asked to speak to the manager. he said they made an internal change about 3 months ago on the scallop dish. the price of scallops has gone up so much, they cut back the # of scallops per dish from 10 to 6 but charge the same price.
yep inflation well contained here, just like the fed is saying. i seriously wonder if 1 member of the fed looks at thier bills. they probably have accountants who do all that, so they have no idea whats it really like to pay your way in the USA. i pay every bill and i pay attention. its insane what i see in my bills (cud be regional) and what the BLS suggests inflation is running at. 2.8% is so off the reservation i cant believe more people dont make a stink about it
bulworth very interesting movie, imo. warren beatty plays a senator that lost his butt in hog futures. he puts a contract out on himself for the insurance money. once he realizes he is a dead man, he starts to openly speak his mind about all the bs in washington. next thing he knows hes the peoples choice for prez. its a funny movie, probably pretty true, too.
and yes Halle, looks phatter than a xmas ham in that movie.
im not involved in this tape at all. i even sold my silver and ALJ yesterday before the meltdown, just lucky.
what gets the tape is usually what no is talking about. lower rates were in the bag last week. the TLT looks done, its summer. i know some supertraders up more than 60% on the yr. that trader, i think, has taken a ton off the table, and waiting. buying begets buying, selling begets selling. this tape to nutz for me, either way. i dont miss trading at all, yet
ive definitely noticed prices for most things r cheaper at WMT than sam club. if u do the math on stuff like toilet paper, paper towels etc. they charge more, in florida, per roll, in sams vs WMT for sure.
ya im that much of a freak. i figured out how much per roll for TP and paper towels. just becuase u buy 100 rolls of TP at a shot doesnt mean u get the better price.
u do save money buying food in bulk at sams, but come on. where do u put 5 lbs of mayo and 2 lbs of mustard. lol
hi def tv r cheapest at super TGT here not sams or WMT. i didnt notice that till i over paid about 600 bucks for one at WMT. same one about 900 @ super TGT. paid about 1k at WMT. was 1400 at CC. lol, they r history. (CC)
back from Dr. appt.
Looks like the beefers are selling everything, stocks, commodities, etc. I guess we get these very month or so.
price per roll of TP works if you're getting the identical TP.
We don't go to WMT at all here since the Costco is really closer.
I'm just comparing the Costco prices vs. the supermarket - Stop n Shop. Huge differences.
A choppy summer wouldn't surprise me at all with the huge $$$ in trading funds. But unless something happens, it's still a bull market.
I don't miss short term trading at all. I'm really happy that I stopped.
Huckabee later added, "If anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it."
However, when pressed about whether he believed in a literal interpretation of the timeline laid out in Genesis -- that God created the world in six days about 6,000 years ago -- Huckabee said, "I don't know."
LMAO!
how far do some of these bible thumpers have thier head stuck up thier butts to believe the earth is 6k yrs old. ive had acid trips that last longer than that.
what yr is this?
next these freaks will think the world is flat
Roflmao......Huckabee. Man the GOP got some wackos in their party.
yeah. I like to quote Ricky Ricardo, they've "got a lot of explainin' to do"
Someday I'm going to post a way for the creationists to explain their 6,000 year thinking so they don't sound like idiots ... uh, well, ... well, just believers.
It occured to me when I was driving in Ohio & I ended up listening to some Bible belt stuff for a few minutes until I realized I had to change stations.
Maybe in few days. ;-)
lol
ron jeremy is 6000 yrs old
I'm going to buy the last chunk of GOOG before the close. I like the relative strength. Impressive.
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