TGIF and More

IBD says yesterday was NOT a distribution day for the S&P, NYSE as volume declined. Hmmmmm. Those stocks were the leaders. My impression was we just saw an example of some beefer traders trying to get out and lock in profits on their mo-mo trades. And so the stock moves into the hands of patient real buyers. Unemployment data was good. The retail sales data meant nothing - it was just an excuse to sell as a perceptive reader mused early AM.

From late comments yesterday (after I left the office), I can see I have to write much more on my "libertarian populist" political philosophy. Much seems misunderstood. I replied this AM, but I think more explanation would help.

SNAFU at work again, both for the re-construction of my sunroom and in my commodity account. I think there must be an unknown virus infecting people causing them to NOT pay attention to details. Hence they screw up no matter how carefully I specify or remind them or put requests in writing. It's not just X-ers either. :-(

Next week we get another CPI number - that's very important in my thinking. A flat or downtick in core CPI would be bullish. The PPI number today means little. But it sometimes is an excuse to buy or sell by ... "them".

Sky the Puppy is growing fast, now over 20 lbs. I have to take more photos of him. :-)

The Thirty Years' War and central European affairs before and around that period are really complex. But I'm enjoying reading about them and looking at the maps.

Las Vegas looms - glitz, dice, blackjack, food. Ahhhh. Three days in the adult Disneyland. :-)) I'll be there Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and return Wednesday so won't post new blogs those days.

By the way, the rational objective in gambling is to have lots of fun while losing the minimum amount. The craps table has the lowest house take if you stick to the pass line and take full free odds. I might make a "Come" bet, too and take full free odds there, too. To that, I add place bets on 6 and / or 8 which also have a relatively low house take to reduce my variance & increase my fun. OR I play blackjack using the optimal play based on the computer-generated card [the Venetian, where we are staying, permits one to use the card on the table openly]. So overall, I estimate I give about 1% to the house. That low loss probability does not show one the variance of expected return, which is truly huge. I've done mathematical models of that and computed profit/loss return probability charts. Most gamblers get wiped out from the variance - there is no recovery from zero.

Money management is important, too, if one wants to have fun for a long time [2.5 days gambling for me]. A sufficient bankroll based on bet size is crucial to survive & give yourself a chance. I understand the games fairly well and have chosen my strategy to fit myself and have a suitable bankroll to have fun the whole trip. So I'm looking forward to having a great time.

PS: Just now, I was run, run, running on my running machines, trying to get lean, giving the "little grey cells" some work. And listening to ... Bubblevision :-(( BUT I heard something & a thought came to me :-)) A guy said that we MUST be near a market top since corporate earnings are a record 12% of GDP. BUT we recently also heard that now 50% of S&P revenues come from overseas. So WHY is US GDP the denominator or the "standard". Much of S&P earnings clearly comes from OVERSEAS. And we know that globalization keeps increasing. So I think that "concern" about earnings as a % of GDP is certainly misleading. One would have to subtract overseas earnings for a true measure. I think it's just "wall of worry", another way perma-bears delude themselves.