Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Winding Down

I expect these next three days will be mostly quiet [although the futures this morning seem a bit hot]. A holiday weekend is coming and then summer begins [unofficially].

WSJ says investors in a defunct hedge fund are suing its old prime broker for trading on knowledge of its activities. Nawwww, would a big street brokerage firm everrrrrrrrr do that ;-)

Two sharks gnawing on each other, that's all.

I'm still in homeowners' purgatory, suffering the endless torments of home improvements. I hope I can climb out in a couple more weeks :-((

Excellent weather here today - I expect to spend some time outside :-))

The bulls' ropa-dope seems to be working. Hmmm -> Stock Traders' Almanac says for the period 1985 to 1997 May was the best month for the S&P, up 13 straight for average gain of 3.3%. We had a good May this year. Is another streak beginning? [no opinion - I don't believe MOST of this numerology - market statistics crap - just noise]

PS: A WSJ story about "extreme optimists" saying the market could go up next ten years. I'm very bullish, too, and have been since last year's June Fed meeting. But I think it's foolish to prognosticate that far in the future. The future isn't determined - decisions of people will create it. I do think that we have a solid base that "could" set up a decade long bull market [cf. 1949, 1982], but I think it could be derailed by human stupidity [in DC, China, Russia, Iran, etc.].

PPS: Someday soon I will write about theories that the Universe is, in fact, completely determined for all time. I don't believe that, but the theory and reasons are very interesting and intriguing.

23 comments:

Bud said...

Rofl suing a prime broker. What a bunch of cry babies!!! I laugh every time I read of a lawsuit when investors lose money. I have lost money numerous times in the market and have never for a second thought about suing my broker. These investors lost money now they wanna go after UBS. What a joke. The markets are risky. You can lose money. Lawsuit? Lolololol

Bunkerman said...

It might be tough to prove, but the prokers tape all the phone calls. So if they can get evidence it might be verrrryyyy interesting. Could just be a fishing expedition, though.

mern said...

a lot of time those big brokers will write u a check just to avoid arb. i cant sue IBKR but ive put together of ongoing list of violations that have occurred to me, there. its unreal. just yesterday those idiots violated regualtion SP in a huge way. they sent my P&L to my client, via email.

gasoline falling like a rock down here since christ hit the airwaves. its plunged from 3.45 for premium to 3.32, just in time for the weekend.

its actually cheaper to fly to lauderdale than drive.

so we GDP at 1.5% (lets say the increase in oil is what .6% of that growth) and i just read an aritcle in the philadelphia inquirer quoting people all over the country who r complaining their credit cards r maxed out and if gas goes any higher and or food prices, they r gonna lose thier homes. but apparently if american just uses 1 gallon less of gas a month, gasoline will plunge in price. americans using less of anything isnt in our DNA

we fishing from 8am to 2pm on saturday bud, if wanna come down. matt says the reds and even some grouper hes been catching. no snuke though, out of season. ive lived down here almost 15 yrs and never landed a snuke

i got into with david alridge yesterday (espn writer) about stern. i cant believe he thinx stren made the right move. well ive stopped watching the games but see the spurs up 2-0. they have already scheduled the parade and stern will be their, wearing the #6.

reading donny to the bears for their best linebacker and a draft pick.

and LMAO at the celtics, they tanked thier season so they cud get oden or durrante and they dropped to 5. as much as i love seeing philly teams win, i enjoy watching the celtics and cowboys struggle. i truly hate both organizations.

now the sixers have 3 first round picks. if i know them they will trade those, to get chris webber back and first round pick in 2008. billy king is a fool

Bunkerman said...

The Celtics used to a gret franchise. I loved watching Cowens & Bird. Time passes.

Bunkerman said...

I saw incredible thievery & knavery at a big Street firm. I have to leave it since they were trying to force me to hose my clients.

Bunkerman said...

Hmm. I saw it at the prior firm, too. If honesty existed, it disappeared in the mid/late 1980s.

mern said...

saw shields lose several 7 figured lawsuits that essentially forced them to shut my office down. those were the days. 20 mil book, 500k a yr income, big office over looking the gulf. i warned the owners so many times about the 2 guys who ended up getting sued. they didnt listen to a word i said, till it was too late.

one lawsuit they lost was over 3 mil. and for a firm like shield and co, it almost bankrupted them.

celtics luck seemed to change when len bias died. this is how bad i am. i was like 15 when that happened. i was playing tennis and someone told me and my first thought was "GOOD!" thats just terrible, and probably is a big part of the philly mush. im sure a lot of people in philly thought the samething. it was just a tradegy and all i thought was "GOOD!"

Bunkerman said...

Yes, Mern, that's when they started to decline. I remember that pretty well. I think they had paid up for that draft pick & then when he died there was zippo in the pipeline for years. And the new owners sucked, too. Crummy owners can really kill a team.

mern said...

yep since pat croce left the sixers in 2002, straight down the toilet.

Bud said...

I must be livin in a different world than you guys. I never saw so much ...uh..."thievery and knavery" ...as you say.

Bud said...

Lol celtics. They did tank games and rewarded Doc Rivers with an extension hoping for Oden. Oops.

Bud said...

Mern you have incredible timing. Flying upto (original slave state) Virginia saturday morning. Always seems to be the case when you head down this way.

Bunkerman said...

Well, Bud, you don't believe in window dressing, either. Maybe you are ... too innocent? ;-)

Bunkerman said...

I'm fairly certain the beefer bears are trying to set up a "key reversal" that can screech about, and then screech double top. That's why they hit the market late in the day, to try to set up a phony sell signal. But I guess I'm paranoid. I believe in window dressing, too.

In the end, I think they'll get hurt. As they deserve. Manipulators. Grrrr.

mern said...

in my experiences over 50 of "brokers" total crooks, no morals at all.

just watched the sopranos last episode. ROFL.

the fight between carm and t sounded very much like the warden and i recently.

and the mom being the bus driver, droping u off..... someone who been down the rabbitt hole many times wrote the peyote scenes

so who whacks T? the muslims or phil?

reading sell off mite due to beefers pressing the shorts after elmer said the chinesse market is going to have a big correction.

is rosey still in shark tank bud? if so give him my cell and tell him to call me friday afternoon 813 789 4806. tell him ive got his cds. i have chiefs too, but ive gotta mail those.

there goes FNM, LOL

Bud said...

Lemme understand you right. If beefers try to sell their positions or short....they are manipulators? Huh? So in your world Bunkerman one is only allowed to buy...not sell? I'm not sure 'paranoid' is the correct word to describe you. Lololol

Bud said...

What planet you live on Mern? 50...all crooks? The majority of wall street pro's I met w ere honest and played by the rules. They made decisions based on a fiduciary responsibility to their clients.

mern said...

im just saying from what ive seen in tampa 50%, no idea about the market. they care about 1 thing. "how can i get my books assets, into my bank account"

there are many boiler rooms here, in tampa.

but ive heard some great stories about NYC firms, boiler rooms, worse than ive seen.

for every one big gud producer at GS there is probably 3 scammers at FN wolfe, d bleck and stewart james. ive known guys who quit the biz when the firm went only 25% markups.

my best friend down here. he raised 100k his first month in the business and took home a check for 30 grand, after tax. once we were at dinner. his mom was there. someone asked him about the biggest pos he ever bought. he said XYZ. mother bursts in "hey i bought that". i was rofl, what a pos. y not just ask for the money he committed suicide in 2001

mern said...

u think these guys have dime in the market? NO WAY

mern said...

i remember in 94. id see brokers make deals in the office to cross CMVT with KLOC or MAIN. those trades they were making 10% net and showing no mark ups. every producer that had an office except two guys were doing that, out of 10

mern said...

saw a kid do 300 k gross in a month, off a 1.5 mil $ book. mostly UAT's in all but dead dudes account.

the firm was throwing hookers at him wrapped in 100 dollar bills, lierally.

until the guy died. the son looked at the confirms. sued.

bizmark was fired before 11am on monday. ill never forget that meeting. the boss said "we just cant tolerate that type of broker here" even though they knew he was doing it and praised him for it, right until he got canned.

Bunkerman said...

uh, Bud - "window dressing" is manipulating by buying. Phony virtual sellers trying to create a tech sell signal is manipulating by selling. As is running stops. Manipulating can be either phony selling or buying. Both are very common, especially with so many beefers & computer trading programs.

I think the real buyers on dips will frustrate them & hurt them, given a few days of ropa-dope action.

Bunkerman said...

Another example of phony buying is running buy stops of some chart & trend line setups. That's why the second mouse method works so often.