Tuesday, May 8, 2007

Where are We? [marketwise]

Reading the S&P 500 chart with simple Elliott Wave concepts shows this up move [since early March] had an initial pulse "1" and a pullback "2" and we've been in a long up move "3" since late March. So we have to expect a pullback "4" soon, to be followed by the last up move "5". I suppose the S&P all-time high of 1527 "could" bring on the "4" pullback. OR we could pullback now & then push through the old high in wave 5.

A new base around or above the old high over the summer could set up a bullish continuation pattern for the next leg up to 1700, which is my 20% gain expectation for this year.

By the way, I use the S&P 500 cash index since that huge index is much less susceptible to beefer games, as the Nazz 100 and Dow are.

Corn was chewed up last night as the USDA crop progress showed corn was 53% planted, vs. expectations of about 50%. The 10 year average of 57% and last year's 67%. I think the selling was overdone & will add some bushels on a good entry. Iowa is far behind. And I think the huge crop just won't get planted in time for optimal yields. Farmers would plant the easy acres first; the tougher acres last.

34 comments:

mern said...

wow now leisman joins santelli stating we have just a small amount of stagflation in the economy. and thats using the govt data.

futs down nice, too. i guess we dont move higher till at least 10am

Bunkerman said...

The dip buyers haven't shown much patience; BUT I suppose a dip buyer intrinsically has patience enough to wait for these dip gifts from the trader beefers.

Pisani said yesterday PM that some trader was griping about losing money 9 straight days shorting the market.

I suppose when they give up & go long, we'll pullback & base.

Bunkerman said...

Active hurricane season predicted by my guy with many strikes on US between NC & Mississippi river. Ground zero is ... Florida. Good luck.

Btw, he was correct last year that Florida & Gulf would NOT be the target.

mern said...

terrific! :-( hurricane season is only from 6/1 to 11/1 d'oh. frankly being 40 miles in, in a house built in 1999, just not real worried about getting nailed. even katrina, which was a cat 5, it wasnt the wind it was the flooding. tampa bay tribune reported that another el nino cud keep gulf temps down this summer again, but i think i read that in march.

saw pisani say that too.

today cnbcs mantra is "how to ride the rally", all day.

im still on mental vacation, harldy doing a thing

Bunkerman said...

Ditto, doing very little.

Bud said...

Not sure why you guys don't try bloomberg tv. Other than David Faber and Santelli, it's much better. Couple good lookin babes too.

Bud said...

Lmaooooo mental vacation. When are you not on it?

Bud said...

Uh Bunkerman.......are dip buyers real or fake?

mern said...

(HPQ) In addition, EPS benefited from higher levels of share repurchases during the quarter.

lol

mern said...

CDE misses ROFL. they dont hedge, how do they miss every quarter. worst company ever.

bud that shirt fit?

Bud said...

Shirt fits and looks great. I been wearing it.

Bunkerman said...

Most dip buyers are real.

Bunkerman said...

Uh, non-real buyers are not "fake", they are "virtual"

Bunkerman said...

Abby raised the Goldman target to 1600 S&P priced off 2008 earnings of $100.

The Bunkerman target is 1700 ;-)

mern said...

and that concludes todays bear raid.

bulls getting the shot guns out. bears hiding in a barrel.

Bud said...

Here they come!!!

Bud said...

Being the fake trader I am...long CSCO for pre earnings run today. I will sell 1/2 before the report and the other half next day or 2. Man I love this beefer trading!!!

mern said...

cal state shooting
1 dead 1 wounded

foxnews

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm. CSCO. 15% earnings growth seems conservative, but I'll use 10%. My model shows it "could" go to 40. [50 at 15% earnings growth]

So I'm not selling a single share. :-))

Bud said...

Cool Bunkerman. I'll just sell my shares to some real traders over the next few days.

Bunkerman said...

I'm taking your suggestion, Bud, and switching to Bloomberg. These dueling lobbyist/politican segments on Bubblevision drove me away. They are so worthless.

Bunkerman said...

uh, Bud. All traders are virtual, almost by defintion. Month-traders have a little reality, though. ;-)

mern said...

just watched the last entourage.

Ari ROFL! (2 cell phones to temple, on yom kipor)

Bud said...

Hey Mern. Yankee fans learning what Philly fans knew all along. Abreu a soft overrated player. Thay already pissin and moanin about him. Took strike 3 lookin last nite bottom 9th 2 out man on 2nd , in a 1 run game.

mern said...

phillies sux
abreu sux

sopranos LOL

they stole a scene from the simpsons. when paulie was turfing chris's lawn definitely reminded me of the time george bush sr was homers neighbor. after bart and homer super glued a rainbow wig on dubya sr, he did like 50 donuts in homers front yard.

i vote little vito ends up whacking in the end, columbine style. maybe taking aj, and carm with tony.

Bunkerman said...

An eisegetor on Bloomberg. Yuck.

mern said...

CFC i guess they in play lol

mern said...

im rick james and im rich

lol

Bud said...

Eisegetor LOL.....Bunkerman you gonna be using alot of old school words now?

Bunkerman said...

Oh, I'll use a few when they seem to work. Not too many. I'm not erudite enough for that. ;-)

mern said...

the bears ripped the dow down almost 3 pts today.

they have the MO

Bunkerman said...

Forces of Light prevail again. Forces of Darkness back to perdition. :-)

Real buyers stepped up gain. Real buyers rule! ;-)

mern said...

a mitt romney commercial LMAO

hes a freaking mormon

isnt there an amendment that states any one who believe in scientology or the book of john is automatically not allowed to run for any office?

mern said...

so goes bushs "we fight there, so we dont fight em here" bs.

at least they caught before the attack.

maybe it wud be worth watching hiliary winning to see kudlow mind explode. man he is sickening.

clearly he is all or nothing. he cant be moderate on anything.

drink a beer, next thing he is snorting ajax for giggles. makes my alcholism much less raging, but im still practicing :-)