Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Fed Meeting

The Fed meets Wednesday. That they will do nothing is as certain as any event under the control of human beings. The statement will likely change, though, imho.

With a Democratic Congress, the Fed must acknowledge part 2 of their statutory mandate, namely to have high employment. Ignore the gurus on TV - they tell you what "they" think the Fed "should do", not what one thinks the Fed "will" do. So with year over year core inflation ticking up, the Fed will clearly keep the inflation risk at a high level. But now with the subprime mortgage weakness and a clearly slower economy, I think they will acknowledge more risk on the downside.

So I think they will have a "balanced risk" statement - equal on the high/raise side & low/drop side. I think the risk of them raising rates is now balanced with them lowering rates. Future data will govern. And I think if the market gets the statement I expect, it goes down again. Hello 200 DMA?

1 comment:

mern said...

DIE market DIE

especially USNA