I was asked a few months ago what groups I thought would lead for 2007. My reply was the oils, miners & golds. I include deep water drillers & some other oil service stocks in the term "oils".
I don't expect a recession and I think the bull market for oil & minerals will end only when China says so. The action in copper recently proves this. Once copper destocking in China & scrap supplies were used up, copper prices began to rise again. I expect oil prices to move up strongly this year as China & other emerging market demand continues to grow (as does US demand unless prices go back to the highs) and supply from many big producers drops (such as Mexico, Norway, the US and others), negating new finds. Ditto iron ore, etc. Gold is a world prosperity play - physical demand in India & China will drive gold up as mine supply continues to drop.