Thursday, March 1, 2007

The Market is Often Wrong

I hear the comment often that "the market is never wrong". That statement reeks of implying a godlike status to "the market", like the early gods of nature such as the sun, moon, wind, and the forest gods. Whilst properly defined in time extent and as groups, a static market level of prices of liquidly traded securities is never wrong in my humble opinion, when examined in detail in smaller time slices and for individual securities and for dynamical changes, I believe it's clear that "the market" is often wrong.

Obviously the market miss-prices securities when material news is not available to the public. And the market clearly makes mistakes in interpreting economic trends and the thinking of public officials such as the Fed. And daily errors are obvious in prices of momentum stocks, some IPOs, etc. Sector valuation errors occur all the time. Moreover, the existence of profitable stock trading ipso facto proves the "market" is often wrong in small time slices.

I make successful intermediate term trades by discovering errors in "the market". Market prices at any point in time are determined by motivated sellers & buyers. When groups of these collectively make mistakes, they cause market prices to be wrong "at that time". Beefers make errors all the time and drive "market" prices to wrong levels. I make money finding their errors. Uh oh, maybe I should like them. :-(( & ;-)

1 comment:

Bud said...

I think most observers ( or at least me) use that phrase to mean that is the price at which buyers and sellers agree upon at that instant. What you are talking about is 'speculation'. The prices at a particular point in time reflect the exact supply and demand situation at that moment.....a.k.a ' the market'.