Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Huh?

[please read whole post & comments. I keep adding PS's & thinking]

I don't see anything good about that Fed statement. I suppose the bears figured the Fed indication that the economy was still strong made them concerned about their subprime blow-up spreading thesis. I guess they are covering. I tried a quick short but after it held for 15 minutes, I covered. Oh well.

No doubt if this holds the charts will look bullish, as I discussed in prior posts. Gotta go with the charts until I see a reason. Maybe the Fed will wait a long time & give inflation a chance to weaken this summer. That's gotta be the only reason to be a bull. Maybe that will work out. I'm wary but will go with the trend.

PS: update - I heard Bill Gross on Bubblevision. Erin re-read the statement & from that & Bill's comment, the prior "tightening bias" was removed. So that's what my first post had anticipated - I missed that in listening the first time. I should have read it myself. Darn. So the beefers are running prices up on that removal. The Fed now has a neutral bias - no bias. Purely data dependent. Erin is by far the best commentator on Bubblevision.

PPS: After thinking it over, I think the Fed interpreted the subprime problems as proof their prior tightening policies worked AND that they had gone far enough. Hence no tightening bias. That makes sense to me. So they wait until the subprime problems work through the economy. I presume their model indicates inflation will lessen this summer. I hope it does. Uh oh, that word, "hope" is dangerous.

PPPS: That qualifies as an IBD followthru day - the Nazz was up over 1.7% on higher volume. So the trend is up, buy dips. The path of least resistance is now up. Don't fight the tape. Don't fight the Fed. What a change! I'll write more in the AM.

9 comments:

mern said...

the took out "we mite need additional firming" fed funds futs went from 25% chance of june to 48% in a few minutes. time to watch cramer say i told u so, again.

man hes been on fire. still cant stand him but hes on fire

mern said...

im very long right now. LOL

mern said...

in hindsight, id bet some beefers got wind of that statement it wud explain the buying for no reason the last 3 days

yowza

Bunkerman said...

I'm long enough for now - some margin. I'll get longer on dips. I suppose the financials are ripping.

This will likely be the "follow-thru Day" for IBD is it holds.

Darn, I wish I hadn't missed that.

Bunkerman said...

I guess I was expecting the tightening bias to be removed by more acknowledgement of the housing problem. When that wasn't there, I leapt to the hawkish interpretation & missed the quiet removal of the tightening bias.

Good job, Mern.

mern said...

im not that smart briefing pointed it out.

im net short again out of all longs

;-)


they were hawkish

mern said...

RMBS i think is coming in for sure

COF i put out again, for starters

mern said...

dont fight the fed?

the fed was hiking in mid 99 and early 2000, neveer made so much on the long side.

they cut 1/3/01, the market went down hard for over 2 yrs.

when did they start hiking again, 2004?

so they didnt mention sub prime but took us to neutral while acknowledging inflation is edging higher.

sure seems like stagflation to me, but like u said, im not gonna fight em. i closed most of the COF, for a slut. RMBS i have a thesis, that their supposed win in court is actually gonna hurt thier sales and eps later this yr, per Amtech and they seem to know RMBS well.

and there is no doubt the fed is doing a "do what i say, not what i do" mode. acknowledging core inflation going up and taking the tightening bias away is something they said a million times, they wudnt do.

when we look back ben will take the fall, but all these problems were created by greenspan. whats funny is he is getting paid mad money, to speak clear english, and warn everyone about what he did post 98.

whatever

mern said...

PALM sh worked made 400 wa ho!

whatever