Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Ugh. Back to Waiting

I ws troubled by that trade when I went out for pizza & saw more homes for sale in town. So I closed it first thing this AM.

Also closed gold, silver, corn and other grain trades. Beefers are pretty long those & I fear more liquidation. I can always re-buy them.

I thought there was a twinge of fear showing as the Countrywide Finance CEO was interviewed on Bubblevision yesterday at the close. There must be a lot of doors slamming in the faces of people trying to re-finance.

PS: That's a mistake I still make too often - trying to catch a swing to early. Still learning.

PPS: I also saw an article saying that two homes on my street were in foreclosure - I was really surprised by that as this is a fairly high value, stable area.

PPPS: by the way, in boxing the instructions are always, "protect yourself at all times"

PPPPS: I wish I had a trader parrot to tell me to not try those little countertrend chip shots. I always lose money on those. :-(

PPPPPS: these "PS"'s are added after the original post as such for clarity. For example, I put this one in about three hours later.


Bud said...

I agree on CFC ceo interview. I think what we are finding out is that the lenders approved everyone who walked through the door for a loan. That is fine as long as rates are low and home prices are rising. It cracked me up when Mozilo said 'investors are overreacting'. Uh Angelo.....stocks are tumbling......are they supposed to sit back and watch their portfolio's evaporate? They are just following those boxing instructions.

Bunkerman said...

Yeah, anyone with a pulse got a loan for 100% of value. That's now clear from the stories of retired with no income geetting huge loans.

I worry about the impact on the other debt markets via the CLO/CDO/CBO markets. With no subordinated debt buyers or equity buyers for the trusts, they can't et done.

Also, even the senior tranche buyers are now discovering there is no market for those products now.

mern said...

i wonder if this bounce has any balls?

the bears r very horny. a snapper cud evolve.

im laying low, transferring some money around. stupid interactive broker. THEY SUCK!

Bunkerman said...

mern, you could have also bought QID yesterday.

uh, I think I remember you loving that one last fall. ;-)

Bunkerman said...

fwiw, my guess is we break the prior low to run stops. The beefers like to do that stuff. It's one of my trading rules in commodities - logical places for stops are always hit to run them. Maybe we go to the 200 dma on the S&P down at 1350. I think that's the 50% retracement level, too.

mern said...

i cant escape the feeling we bounce today

Bunkerman said...

maybe you're right, we bounce, mern. We did that after the big drop. But I think there must be a lot of longs wanting to sell it at some point.

I think we need real news to change sentiment, namely sell rally sentiment. We need dip buyers to feel confident again.

A good inflation number would bring back Fed cut thinking to some basis in reality

mern said...

i just called the bls and told them we need a gud cpi

they gave me a wink and a nudge


i dont know gasoline up about 30cents a gallon here in past month. but strip out all parts showing inflation, and we got none. and that is what the BLS does

Bunkerman said...

Will one of you guys give me an electronic "boot injection" [aka kick in the butt] next time I try one of those short term trades.

I need to stick to the month+ trades and trend following. That's how I've always made money.

Sitting on my hands now.

mern said...

looks like an inverse H&S on the 5 min intra day on the Q's

im gonna give some long trades a shot.

pray for me

mern said...

im fading myself